October baseball is officially here and I’m dialling up four MLB prop pick recommendations for the marathon playoff slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers manhandled the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. I’m targeting L.A. stars Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and expect Cody Bellinger to come up big in a must-win game for the New York Yankees.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Game 2 of the 2025 wild-card series on Wednesday.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Bellinger over 1.5 total bases (+170) & 1+ RBI (+180)
Bellinger is likely to occupy a middle-of-the-order spot behind Aaron Judge in a much more manageable Game 2 assignment.
The Yankees will see Brayan Bello after Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet delivered a sensational performance last night.
Bello is wild and is coming off his worst month of the season. Bellinger will have a very real chance of stepping up with runners on base at his home park, where he rakes, and I like him to capitalize.
The Yankees saw Bello three times this season and Bellinger hit cleanup in all of those contests, including a mid-September game the right-hander laboured through.
Bellinger’s ability to handle left-handed pitching should help him out later in the contest, too, when Boston manager Alex Cora looks to play the matchup game following Bello’s departure.
The 30-year-old Bellinger hit a robust .353/.415/.601 off southpaws this season. Bellinger is batting .329 with a .917 OPS vs. lefties over the last three seasons.
Key stat: Bellinger hit .302/.365/.544 at Yankee Stadium with a 152 wRC+ and 18 of his 29 homers.
Betts to score a run (-103): In a major starting pitching mismatch, the Cincinnati Reds are deploying Zack Littell for their do-or-die game.
Littell is a soft-tosser who doesn’t miss bats and throws lots of strikes. It leads to plenty of contact (fifth-most among starters), a dangerous way to pitch against the powerful Dodgers.
We’re unlikely to see a deep outing from Littell, who will turn it over to a bullpen that threw five innings last night after Hunter Greene got walloped. Not good.
Leadoff man Shohei Ohtani seems like a shoo-in to score but you’ll have to pay -200 for that. But Betts, hitting right behind Ohtani and in front of power bats Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy, is a highly playable -103.
Betts reached base three times in Game 1, though he didn’t score. That was following his most productive month of the season (.299/.343/.557).
Best playoff pitching prop
Yamamoto over 17.5 outs (-110): The Reds have an unimposing lineup that was below average, per wRC+, against both lefties and righties during the regular season.
Teammate Blake Snell carved up the Reds over six innings before allowing a pair of seventh-inning runs ahead of a Dodgers bullpen meltdown in the eighth. I’m expecting Yamamoto to enjoy similar results.
The Dodgers can end the series tonight, setting up their rotation quite well for the NLDS, which begins Saturday but has a day off baked in before Game 2 on Monday.
Because of those factors listed above, I anticipate the Dodgers will be just fine letting Yamamoto ride things out.
There’s plenty to like about this matchup and the way he has performed of late:
Yamamoto posted a 0.67 ERA over four September starts.
He cleared this line in six of his final seven outings and 18 of 30 starts this season.
Yamamoto keeps the ball in the yard, is dynamite against both lefties and righties and punched out batters at the fifth-best rate among qualified starters.
The only starter in MLB with a lower xERA was NL Cy Young favourite Paul Skenes.
MLB prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 10/01/2025.
After a narrow victory in Game 1, the Boston Red Sox have a chance on Wednesday to close out their best-of-three wild-card series against the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: Garrett Crochet dominated for the Red Sox last night, freeing up his team to use its bullpen in any way imaginable behind Brayan Bello. For the Yankees, Carlos Rodon takes the ball in hopes of extending the series to a third game on Thursday.
Check out my +400 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 2, featuring prop bets on Cody Bellinger and Jarren Duran.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Bellinger to get a hit | Bello over 3.5 Ks | Duran under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +2.5 (+400)
Bellinger to get a hit (-177): In a parlay consisting of four juiced-up legs, this pick has the longest odds. Still, it’s a pretty reasonable ask.
Bellinger is 4-for-10 vs. Bello with two home runs and a walk.
Last night, Bellinger recorded a single in New York’s loss. He now has 1+ hits in 25 of his past 33 games.
In his first year as a Yankee, the former NLCS MVP thrived in his new home park. Bellinger posted a .302/.365/.544 slash line in 80 regular season games at Yankee Stadium.
Bello has a .264 xBA this year, per Baseball Savant, which ranks in the 25th percentile among pitchers.
Bello over 3.5 Ks (-180): The main risk here is Bello’s workload, which could be curtailed with so many fresh arms in the bullpen.
But this is a low bar, and the matchup is enticing.
Bello has 4+ strikeouts in all three starts vs. the Yankees this season.
He has 41 Ks in 152 plate appearances against New York’s current lineup. That equates to a 27.0% K rate, which is well above league average (22.2%).
Bello’s outs prop is set at 14.5, which means there’s a fair chance he doesn’t get past the fifth inning. But he shouldn’t need to do that to get to four strikeouts anyway.
In Game 1, the Yankees struck out 13 times.
Duran under 1.5 total bases (-315): Duran struggles in lefty-on-lefty matchups, and we’ve already seen that play out against Rodon.
New York’s southpaw pitcher has held Duran to 2-for-16 batting with a double, a walk and five strikeouts.
Duran is hitless in seven at-bats vs. Rodon this year.
Against LHPs as a whole in 2025, Duran is batting .211 with a .600 OPS.
In Game 1, Duran batted seventh against left-hander Max Fried and went 0-for-4. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him slotted somewhere low in the lineup again tonight.
Duran has gone under 1.5 bases in six of his past eight games.
Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction
Red Sox +2.5 (-286): As with Game 1, the Yankees are favoured to win tonight. But the Red Sox have been good enough in this matchup that I’m content to at least back them with some cushion.
Boston is 10-4 with a +17 run differential against New York this season.
Dating back to July 2024, the Red Sox are 4-1 in Bello’s starts vs. the Yankees. And the right-hander has a 2.45 ERA in those outings.
Rodon has been a better pitcher than Bello this season, but his numbers against the Red Sox are just so-so.
Boston scored 11 runs over 15.2 innings vs. Rodon this season, and he took the loss in two of his three starts.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/01/2025.
A David-versus-Goliath wild-card matchup begins on Tuesday when the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds for Game 1.
The pregame narrative: L.A. (93-69) finished the season with 10 more wins and a run differential four times greater than Cincinnati. That’s to be expected with a payroll discrepancy of $230 million. The Dodgers are heavily favoured in Game 1 with Blake Snell pitching opposite Hunter Greene.
Check out my +335 Reds vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring slugger Freddie Freeman.
Reds vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Under 9.5 | Freeman over 1.5 bases | Greene over 4.5 Ks (+335)
Under 9.5 runs (-455): Cincinnati eked its way into the postseason mainly because of a generational collapse by the New York Mets.
The Reds did manage to go 14-11 in September, but they posted a .694 team OPS that month, which was the second-worst mark among all playoff teams.
And on the season, Cincinnati ranks 24th in wRC+ (92) and ISO (.146), as well as 23rd in K rate (23.3%).
Simply put, its offence is anemic.
Snell has been on fire since returning from injury in August, posting a 2.09 ERA in his last eight starts. All but one of those games went under this alternate total, and he should cruise again.
Cincinnati has its own ace starting, and he’s been lights out in September.
2.64 ERA
.152 opponent BA
11.2 K/9
Eight of Greene’s last 10 starts have gone under this mark. Expect a low-scoring pitchers’ duel.
Greene over 4.5 Ks (-315): Greene’s sparkling 11.2 K/9 rate in September is just the tip of the iceberg.
The righty’s 99.5 mph fastball ranks in the 99th percentile for velocity, and his slider has a 46.9% whiff rate — the ninth-highest mark of any qualified pitch this season, per Baseball Savant.
Greene ranks in the 93rd percentile in K rate (31.4%) and 90th percentile for whiff rate (31.4%), and has gone over this mark in seven of his last nine starts.
One of the outliers was a three-strikeout game against L.A. on Aug. 25, but that doesn’t worry me.
Greene still has a respectable 24.8% K rate against the Dodgers lineup, clearing this mark in both previous starts against them.
Freeman over 1.5 bases (+135): This is the leg that’s doing a ton of heavy lifting, more than quadrupling the parlay’s odds from -195 to +335.
And with Freeman’s postseason pedigree, I think that’s a steal.
The Canadian slugged .519 last October, matching his career playoff mark. Everyone will remember his four World Series home runs en route to winning the MVP.
Freeman slashed .299/.374/.500 against RHPs this year and is 4-for-15 off Greene with two doubles and a home run.
Reds vs. Dodgers predictions as of 10:45 a.m. on 09/30/2025.
All four MLB wild-card series begin on Tuesday, and I’ve got plays from three of them.
The pregame narrative: As is typically the case when the playoffs begin, the projected run totals for today’s games are quite low. I’ve got the over in one game and the under in another, along with a prop bet on Jose Ramirez.
Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 1 action on Sept. 30, including an over/under prediction for the San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs matchup.
If the Cincinnati Reds are going to have any shot at shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hunter Greene will need to shove.
Based on how he’s fared all season, and especially in September, I like Greene’s chances of quieting the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
In five starts this month, Greene has a 2.64 ERA, a .152 opponent BA and an 11.2 K/9.
He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 19 starts on the season.
This under has cashed or pushed in 11 of Greene’s 19 starts.
Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, and he works off that with a slider that has a 46.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the ninth-highest whiff rate of any qualified pitch this season.
It’s nasty stuff that can keep any lineup guessing.
L.A. guessed right more than I would’ve liked when Greene last pitched in this matchup, as he yielded five runs (three earned) over 5.0 innings in one of his worst starts of the year.
Even so, this total pushed as the Reds were held scoreless in a 7-0 loss.
Cincinnati’s hapless offence is just as key to this wager as Greene’s excellence. The Reds have a .694 OPS as a team this month, which is the second-worst among all playoff clubs — ahead of only the Tigers.
On the season, Cincinnati posted a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB).
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. He has a 2.09 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 in his past eight outings.
Key stat: Cincinnati’s active lineup is just 5-for-48 (.104) with 12 strikeouts against Snell.
More wild-card predictions
Padres/Cubs over 7 runs (-106): This will be the third time Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta square off this season, and I think that familiarity works in the favour of the hitters.
Both lineups already have solid numbers against these pitchers, too.
Padres vs. Boyd: 19-for-68 (.279), .412 SLG, 17.6 K%
Cubs vs. Pivetta: 32-for-106 (.302), .491 SLG, 27.4 K%
San Diego and Chicago are both swinging the bats well lately, which certainly doesn’t hurt. They rank seventh and fourth, respectively, in wRC+ over the past 30 days.
Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+115): Tarik Skubal is a menacing opponent for any hitter, but Ramirez has managed to put together plenty of good at-bats in this matchup.
The switch-hitting third baseman is 12-for-36 with a triple and three doubles vs. Skubal.
This will be Ramirez’s third time seeing Skubal in less than two weeks. In the two previous games, he went 2-for-5 with a walk.
Ramirez enters with a .301/.393/.548 slash line over his past 25 games. He’s 13-12 vs. this prop in that span.
At this price, J-Ram has value to stay hot.
MLB wild-card best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.
Starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tarik Skubal headline my best playoff props for the start of MLB’s postseason action on Tuesday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The big lefties are rolling into the postseason and I expect them to deliver as Game 1 favourites. I’m also backing veteran Alex Bregman at Yankee Stadium.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for Game 1 of the 2025 wild-card series.
It should surprise no one if Snell is the best starting pitcher this postseason. I’m not predicting that, but he’s that good.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lefty has a tasty Game 1 matchup against the 83-win Cincinnati Reds, who have more like a 73-win offence.
This team snuck into the playoffs on the last day of the season and got little out of its best player, Elly De La Cruz, for much of the second half.
This is not an imposing lineup. Have a look yourself:
Cincinnati’s offence was well below league average vs. lefties, ranking 26th in wRC+. The Reds were 23rd in wRC+ in September and 24th for the entire season.
They had a .124 ISO against LHPs, better than only two teams and the worst mark among the playoff clubs.
The worry is that Snell runs up a high pitch count with strikeouts and walks — two things he does a lot of — but I feel good about his ability to limit damage against this group.
Snell posted a 2.35 ERA, the second-best FIP of his career (2.70), and he rarely gets taken deep.
He has elite swing-and-miss stuff to get himself out of jams, ranking in the 96th percentile in whiff rate and 95th in chase rate (per Baseball Savant). Snell’s ability to punch out batters over the last several seasons is as good as any starter.
The southpaw ended his season with a 28:5 K/BB mark over his final three starts, completing six-plus innings each time out.
He missed four months before coming back in August, clearing this line in six of his final seven starts.
Snell eclipsed the 100-pitch mark in two of his September outings and has been excellent throughout his postseason career.
Key stat: The left-hander has a 1.17 ERA in seven starts at Dodger Stadium.
MLB postseason player props
Bregman to score a run (+150): It’s unclear where Bregman will slot in the lineup, but he will almost certainly occupy a top-three spot after primarily batting No. 2 for Boston this season.
New York Yankees starter Max Fried is excellent but he’s not Garrett Crochet, and that’s especially true with his swing-and-miss ability.
Bregman slumped toward the end of the season, but he doesn’t strike out much. He was fantastic vs. left-handers, he has pop and he’s got a ton of postseason experience.
That combination gives me confidence in Bregman, who has a .346 career on-base percentage in the playoffs. And this year, he recorded his best batting average and slugging percentage since the 2019 season.
The veteran can hit his way on and draw free passes, evidenced by the .319/.421/.434 line he compiled against southpaws.
Best MLB picks
Skubal over 18.5 outs (+125): The actual best starter in the postseason is probably Skubal, who gets an opponent he faced four times in the regular season and handled each time.
Skubal was 2-2 vs. this line against the Cleveland Guardians but went at least 6.0 innings every outing.
He held the Guardians to a 0.64 ERA and .165 opponent batting average.
Skubal ended his year with back-to-back six-inning starts vs. Cleveland but was 7-2 against this beefy line coming out of the all-star break.
Progressive Field is a good pitching environment and today’s weather isn’t expected to aid offence in any way.
The Detroit Tigers’ bullpen has been miserable and overworked this month, making this a situation where the club should look to ride its horse in a pivotal Game 1.
Detroit only gets Skubal once this series, so there’s no worry about preserving his arm for a potential do-or-die Game 3 on Thursday.
MLB prop picks made at 8:20 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.
Starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tarik Skubal headline my best playoff props for the start of MLB’s postseason action on Tuesday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The big lefties are rolling into the postseason and I expect them to deliver as Game 1 favourites. I’m also backing veteran Alex Bregman at Yankee Stadium.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for Game 1 of the 2025 wild-card series.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Snell over 15.5 outs (+110)
It should surprise no one if Snell is the best starting pitcher this postseason. I’m not predicting that, but he’s that good.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lefty has a tasty Game 1 matchup against the 83-win Cincinnati Reds, who have more like a 73-win offence.
This team snuck into the playoffs on the last day of the season and got little out of its best player, Elly De La Cruz, for much of the second half.
This is not an imposing lineup. Have a look yourself:
Cincinnati’s offence was well below league average vs. lefties, ranking 26th in wRC+. The Reds were 23rd in wRC+ in September and 24th for the entire season.
They had a .124 ISO against LHPs, better than only two teams and the worst mark among the playoff clubs.
The worry is that Snell runs up a high pitch count with strikeouts and walks — two things he does a lot of — but I feel good about his ability to limit damage against this group.
Snell posted a 2.35 ERA, the second-best FIP of his career (2.70), and he rarely gets taken deep.
He has elite swing-and-miss stuff to get himself out of jams, ranking in the 96th percentile in whiff rate and 95th in chase rate (per Baseball Savant). Snell’s ability to punch out batters over the last several seasons is as good as any starter.
The southpaw ended his season with a 28:5 K/BB mark over his final three starts, completing six-plus innings each time out.
He missed four months before coming back in August, clearing this line in six of his final seven starts.
Snell eclipsed the 100-pitch mark in two of his September outings and has been excellent throughout his postseason career.
Key stat: The left-hander has a 1.17 ERA in seven starts at Dodger Stadium.
Bregman to score a run (+128): It’s unclear where Bregman will slot in the lineup, but he will almost certainly occupy a top-three spot after primarily batting No. 2 for Boston this season.
New York Yankees starter Max Fried is excellent but he’s not Garrett Crochet, and that’s especially true with his swing-and-miss ability.
Bregman slumped toward the end of the season, but he doesn’t strike out much. He was fantastic vs. left-handers, he has pop and he’s got a ton of postseason experience.
That combination gives me confidence in Bregman, who has a .346 career on-base percentage in the playoffs. And this year, he recorded his best batting average and slugging percentage since the 2019 season.
The veteran can hit his way on and draw free passes, evidenced by the .319/.421/.434 line he compiled against southpaws.
Best MLB picks
Skubal over 18.5 outs (+117): The actual best starter in the postseason is probably Skubal, who gets an opponent he faced four times in the regular season and handled each time.
Skubal was 2-2 vs. this line against the Cleveland Guardians but went at least 6.0 innings every outing.
He held the Guardians to a 0.64 ERA and .165 opponent batting average.
Skubal ended his year with back-to-back six-inning starts vs. Cleveland but was 7-2 against this beefy line coming out of the all-star break.
Progressive Field is a good pitching environment and today’s weather isn’t expected to aid offence in any way.
The Detroit Tigers’ bullpen has been miserable and overworked this month, making this a situation where the club should look to ride its horse in a pivotal Game 1.
Detroit only gets Skubal once this series, so there’s no worry about preserving his arm for a potential do-or-die Game 3 on Thursday.
MLB prop picks made at 8:20 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.
All four MLB wild-card series begin on Tuesday, and I’ve got plays from three of them.
The pregame narrative: As is typically the case when the playoffs begin, the projected run totals for today’s games are quite low. I’ve got the over in one game and the under in another, along with a prop bet on Jose Ramirez.
Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 1 action on Sept. 30, including an over/under prediction for the San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs matchup.
MLB wild-card best bets
Best bet: Reds/Dodgers under 7 runs (-112)
If the Cincinnati Reds are going to have any shot at shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hunter Greene will need to shove.
Based on how he’s fared all season, and especially in September, I like Greene’s chances of quieting the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
In five starts this month, Greene has a 2.64 ERA, a .152 opponent BA and an 11.2 K/9.
He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 19 starts on the season.
This under has cashed or pushed in 11 of Greene’s 19 starts.
Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, and he works off that with a slider that has a 46.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the ninth-highest whiff rate of any qualified pitch this season.
It’s nasty stuff that can keep any lineup guessing.
L.A. guessed right more than I would’ve liked when Greene last pitched in this matchup, as he yielded five runs (three earned) over 5.0 innings in one of his worst starts of the year.
Even so, this total pushed as the Reds were held scoreless in a 7-0 loss.
Cincinnati’s hapless offence is just as key to this wager as Greene’s excellence. The Reds have a .694 OPS as a team this month, which is the second-worst among all playoff clubs — ahead of only the Tigers.
On the season, Cincinnati posted a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB).
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. He has a 2.09 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 in his past eight outings.
Key stat: Cincinnati’s active lineup is just 5-for-48 (.104) with 12 strikeouts against Snell.
Padres/Cubs over 7 runs (-112): This will be the third time Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta square off this season, and I think that familiarity works in the favour of the hitters.
Both lineups already have solid numbers against these pitchers, too.
Padres vs. Boyd: 19-for-68 (.279), .412 SLG, 17.6 K%
Cubs vs. Pivetta: 32-for-106 (.302), .491 SLG, 27.4 K%
San Diego and Chicago are both swinging the bats well lately, which certainly doesn’t hurt. They rank seventh and fourth, respectively, in wRC+ over the past 30 days.
Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Tarik Skubal is a menacing opponent for any hitter, but Ramirez has managed to put together plenty of good at-bats in this matchup.
The switch-hitting third baseman is 12-for-36 with a triple and three doubles vs. Skubal.
This will be Ramirez’s third time seeing Skubal in less than two weeks. In the two previous games, he went 2-for-5 with a walk.
Ramirez enters with a .301/.393/.548 slash line over his past 25 games. He’s 13-12 vs. this prop in that span.
At this price, J-Ram has value to stay hot.
MLB wild-card best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.
A gruelling 162-game season has weeded out the impostors and narrowed the field to 12 teams. As those clubs battle for the World Series, a revised wagering strategy is required for the next month of baseball games.
This MLB postseason betting guide will help you understand the biggest changes that come with October baseball and how best to approach player props, game totals and more.
The rules are largely the same, but the game is managed a different way when the stakes are highest. As such, the betting lines you saw throughout the dog days of summer can look completely different.
There’s better pitching, at least more elite arms being deployed. The weather is generally colder. Substitutions are common. And runs are harder to come by.
Those factors impact prices for some of the most popular betting markets, including:
Pitcher props
Hitter props
Game totals
We’ll explore each area, outline key differences from the regular season and attempt to find a betting edge for the final month of play.
MLB playoff pitching
The biggest difference between playoff and regular season ball is pitching. And that impacts pitching props as well as game totals.
Let’s start by looking at the prop markets.
Starters often have a shorter leash as teams turn to their bullpens for fresh arms and to capitalize on platoon advantages, especially in close games.
According to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, relievers have accounted for 50% of all innings pitched over the last four postseasons.
In the 2024 postseason, reliever usage was up over 10% from the regular season and eclipsed that 50% mark. The World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers used their bullpen for 58% of their playoff innings.
That means most starting pitchers will be yanked early — remember Jose Berrios in 2023, Blue Jays fans?
Starting pitcher props
The big horses like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet might not be affected much, but O/U prop lines can start looking really different once you get past the elite arms.
Don’t be surprised to see a starter with an outs total that typically hovered around 17.5 in the regular season (18.5 in a plus matchup) to be priced at 15.5 in the playoffs.
Less time on the mound will lead to fewer strikeout opportunities, which means K lines will look different, too.
Here are some examples of big-name pitchers who had significantly lighter lines in recent postseason games:
Max Scherzer (2023 ALCS G7): 13.5 outs. Scherzer averaged 16.9 outs in the regular season.
Nathan Eovaldi (2023 ALCS G2): 14.5 outs line. Eovaldi averaged 17.3 outs in the regular season.
Gerrit Cole (2024 WS G1): 4.5 strikeout line. Cole entered with a 10.36 career K/9 rate.
Some teams, of course, use their bullpens more than others.
From the 2025 trade deadline onward, the Padres (212.1 IP) and Brewers (210.0) ranked third and seventh, respectively, in bullpen innings pitched.
The Phillies (158.2 IP), Guardians (169.1), and Yankees (176.1) ranked 30th, 29th and 28th.
Betting tip: Be aware of a team’s bullpen usage and who’s likely available or not. Know who the next day’s starting pitcher is to try to understand their expected workload. And don’t assume a light line immediately makes the over a slam-dunk play (Scherzer and Cole both went under their lines in the examples above).
Most teams opt for a four-man starting rotation in October, meaning the best arms are available on a nightly basis.
And that means lower scoring.
A hypothetical matchup between Skubal and Crochet might yield an over/under of just 5.5 runs — much different than a random game between two No. 5 arms in mid-June.
Take a look at the difference in runs per game over the last five seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 year):
Teams scored an average of 4.53 runs per game over the last five full regular seasons.
In the playoffs, that average dropped to 4.06. That’s a reduction of 10.37%.
But that doesn’t mean blindly taking the under is a smart play. Overs have been slightly more profitable since the wild-card expansion in 2022 (118-114-16).
Since 2022, the Dodgers (15-6-2; 71.4%) have the highest overs rate, while the Yankees (8-13-2; 38.1%) have the highest unders rate.
The top five teams in runs per game all made the postseason this year, too, which is worth keeping in mind.
Team
Runs per game
Yankees
5.24
Dodgers
5.09
Brewers
4.98
Blue Jays
4.93
Cubs
4.90
Playoff game totals: Stadiums & weather
You know what else keeps the scoring low? Weather.
It’s not called the Fall Classic for nothing. Summer is over, the leaves have begun to change, and temperatures have dropped.
Most games will be played outdoors, and the ball doesn’t fly as far on a crisp October evening.
Here’s a list of each playoff team’s stadium, average October weather (high/low in °C) and park factor, provided by Baseball Savant.
Team & Stadium
Park Factor
Weather
Red Sox (Fenway Park)
104 (2nd)
18° / 11°
Tigers (Comerica Park)
104 (4th)
15° / 7°
Dodgers (Dodger Stadium)
104 (5th)
26° / 16°
Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)
103 (6th)
Domed
Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)
103 (8th)
20° / 11°
Yankees (Yankee Stadium)
99 (15th)
18° / 10°
Reds (Great American Ball Park)
99 (17th)
20° / 7°
Cubs (Wrigley Field)
98 (20th)
17° / 10°
Brewers (American Family Field)
98 (21st)
Domed
Guardians (Progressive Field)
95 (27th)
18° / 10°
Padres (Petco Park)
94 (28th)
24° / 16°
Mariners (T-Mobile Park)
91 (30th)
15° / 10°
Blue Jays fans may be treated to fireworks at Rogers Centre this October with a temperature-controlled dome in what’s a good hitting environment.
On the other hand, Mariners games in Seattle should have very low totals, given the park, weather, and the team’s elite pitching staff.
Betting tip: Checking the weather forecast, including expected wind speeds and direction, should without question be part of your betting prep. This can help you make informed decisions on several betting markets, including home run props.
MLB postseason betting guide: Hitting props
Bullpens can ruin teams in the regular season, but mostplayoff squads are stacked with elite relief arms.
Combine that with strong starting pitching and colder temperatures, and hitting becomes quite difficult.
Managers will pull plenty of strings (and players) to get the best possible matchups throughout the game.
Certain batters will be lifted if there’s an unfavourable matchup, or if a team is looking to forgo offence for defence when holding a lead.
This means batting props, like pitching props, will generally not have the same regular-season prices. We’ll look at two popular hitting props below: runs scored and total bases.
A over on a 1.5 total bases prop that’s generally +100 might be in the +130 to +150 range. That’s a significant difference in payout potential.
Don’t be surprised to see leadoff hitters who often have odds to score with an implied probability greater than 50% to be available at plus or even money.
Again, this all comes back to good pitching, which leads to lower game totals.
Here are some lines from recent postseason games:
Gleyber Torres (2024 ALDS G4): +105 to score. Torres was the Yankees’ leadoff hitter.
Francisco Lindor (2024 WC G1): +135 over 1.5 bases. Lindor was seventh in the regular season with 334 total bases.
MLB postseason betting guide: Player prop strategy
Here are a couple of things to look at and ways to approach hitting props.
Try to find batters with a favourable history against the starting pitcher in a good hitter’s park.
Look for hitters who might not play the whole game. They could be priced at -120 to record a hit (a number you’d never see in the regular season).
On the flip side of the hit market, fades can be profitable, too, if you can find a batter with A) a poor history against a pitcher, and B) a chance of being lifted for a platoon advantage later in the game.
Anthony Volpe is a perfect example of the potential value that can be found on the hits market.
The shortstop is -117 to record a hit and -112 to go hitless in Tuesday’s wild-card game against the Boston Red Sox.
Volpe is slashing .253/.316/.416 against LHP, and faces an elite southpaw in Crochet.
His .195/.254/.382 slash line against righties is unsightly, and his -5 fielding run value indicates he won’t be left in for defensive reasons.
Betting on the Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are a perfect example of a team that loves to exploit its righty-lefty or lefty-righty matchups.
While there’s no fear of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or George Springer being lifted mid-game, the same can’t be said for every player in the lineup.
Players like Ernie Clement and Addison Barger both run severe splits and have routinely gotten pulled from ballgames after the advantage is gone.
Barger hit below the Mendoza line in September, and could be worth fading if he’s battling a tough righty.
Anthony Santander is another Blue Jay to monitor. Toronto likely wants his power bat in the lineup, but to slot Springer at DH. That means Santander could see the bulk of his postseason action as an outfielder. In an effort to prioritize defence later in the game, Santander is a prime substitution candidate.
Betting tip: Familiarize yourself with a team’s lineup and tendencies before placing prop bets. Substitutions are going to happen, creating potential value if you have an understanding of how a manager may look to exploit a game.
The bright lights
Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper are two of MLB’s biggest names, and they’ve performed on opposite ends of the scale under the bright lights.
Here’s a quick look at some notable trends ahead of the playoffs:
Judge (NYY): The best hitter in baseball has struggled mightily in the postseason recently, with a .643 OPS since 2021. He slashed .184/.344/.408 last season, going under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games.
Harper (PHI): Harper logged an OPS north of 1.050 in every postseason with the Phillies, scoring 29 runs in 34 games.
Guerrero (TOR): Toronto’s $500-million man is batting .136 with one extra-base hit in six playoff games. He only has one strikeout in his last 17 postseason plate appearances, though.
Skubal (DET): Skubal averaged 19.0 outs across three playoff starts last year and 18.58 outs in the regular season. He allowed zero runs before the fifth inning in those games.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): Tatis has a 1.500 OPS in his last 15 postseason games. He’s batting .423 with more than double the amount of extra-base hits (seven) than walks (three), making him a prime total bases target.
Ranger Suarez (PHI): The Phillies southpaw is having a strong year, averaging 18.36 outs per performance. He also has a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last 10 playoff appearances (eight starts) — but in those eight starts, he’s 1-7 against a 15.5 outs line.
Luis Arraez Jr. (SD): Arraez has a .205 batting average across his last two postseasons with zero walks and zero extra-base hits. He struggles against left-handed pitching and has a -5 fielding run value, making him a prime candidate to be removed after a platoon advantage.
How many teams make the postseason? Twelve teams make MLB’s postseason: Three division winners in each league plus three wild cards. The top two seeds in each league get a bye to the division series.
What is MLB’s playoff format? The postseason begins with a best-of-three wild-card series, and the higher seed hosts all the games. Winners face the top two seeds in the division series, a best-of-five, 2-2-1 format. The League Championship Series and the World Series are best-of-seven, with the higher seed hosting four games.
When do the MLB playoffs start? The wild-card round begins on Sept. 30 with the ALDS and NLDS kicking off on Oct. 4.
When does the World Series begin? The World Series is slated to begin on Oct. 24 with a possible Game 7 on Nov. 1.
Who are the favourites? At the time of writing, the reigning champion Dodgers and Phillies are tied as favourites. The Blue Jays are +1,000 to win the World Series.
Which teams are the top seeds? The Blue Jays are the AL’s top seed, and the Mariners also received a first-round bye. In the NL, the Brewers have the top seed and the Phillies are No. 2.
When and who do the Blue Jays play? The Blue Jays begin their postseason at home on Oct. 4. They will play the winner of the wild-card series between the Yankees and Red Sox, setting up an AL East battle.
What is Toronto’s playoff history? Most recently, the Blue Jays made the playoffs in 2020, 2022 and 2023. They didn’t win a single game in any of those years. Toronto made the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 and has two franchise World Series victories (1992, 1993).
Who won the 2024 World Series? The Dodgers won last year’s World Series, beating the Yankees 4-1. Canadian slugger Freddie Freeman took home MVP honours after hitting four home runs and recording 12 RBI.
The most storied rivalry in MLB will be renewed this week, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round.
The pregame narrative: Boston got the better of New York during the regular season, but the Yankees finished five games ahead in the standings and will host this best-of-three series. Tuesday’s Game 1 is a battle of bona fide aces, with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet on the mound.
Check out my +410 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1, featuring Aaron Judge.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Fried over 5.5 Ks | Crochet over 6.5 Ks | Judge under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +1.5 (+410)
Fried over 5.5 strikeouts (-143): Fried has been exactly the type of frontline pitcher the Yankees wanted to invest in this offseason, and his results against the Red Sox in 2025 are indicative of that:
June 15: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 9 K
Aug. 22: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K
Sept. 13: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 6 K
Fried is 3-0 vs. this prop and has a 1.96 ERA against the Red Sox this season. He’s certainly earned this Game 1 start.
Boston has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%), and it’s even higher against Fried (26.8% in 97 plate appearances).
Fried is 19-13 vs. this prop market overall in 2025, and the Red Sox are a plus matchup for him at this number.
Crochet over 6.5 Ks (-265): Crochet has absolutely carved up the Yankees. There’s no other way to say it.
The left-hander has racked up 45 Ks in just 114 plate appearances against New York’s active lineup, as well as a 34.4% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.3%.
Crochet is 4-0 vs. this Ks total when facing the Yankees this year. He’s averaged 9.8 Ks per outing in that span.
Crochet paced the majors in strikeouts (255) and was the AL leader in K/9 (11.2). He’s at the pinnacle of the sport in strikeout volume and efficiency.
Betting the over on 7.5 Ks at -130 looks solid for a standalone play, but I’ll shave off one strikeout to be a bit safer in the SGP.
Boston’s fireballer went 23-9 vs. a 6.5-strikeout prop this season.
Judge under 1.5 total bases (-152): Aside from a couple of mistakes, Crochet has kept Judge muzzled at the plate.
Judge, the two-time MLB home run king, has homered twice off Crochet. But overall, the slugger is just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts and a disastrous 61.8% whiff rate.
Guys like Judge and Shohei Ohtani are dangerous to fade in this market, but when the right matchup comes around, it can be worthwhile.
And though I don’t think there’s a lot of stickiness that ties Judge’s 2024 postseason results to now, I do want to point out that he struggled quite a bit last fall:
.184 BA
31.3 K%
Under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games
Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction
Red Sox +1.5 (-205): The Yankees are favoured to win Game 1 and the series, but I think Boston can at least keep this one close.
The Red Sox are 9-4 with a +15 run differential against the Yankees this season.
With Crochet on the mound, Boston went 4-0 vs. New York. Also, the Red Sox are 7-0 in Crochet’s past seven starts.
Against a +1.5 run line, the Red Sox are 28-4 with Crochet on the mound this season. That’s preposterously good.
New York has home-field advantage, but I view Boston’s visitor status as a plus for this pick. The Red Sox are guaranteed to bat nine times, so maybe they can scratch something across in the ninth if they’re down by multiple runs.
Boston is 40-22 ATS (64.5%) as an underdog this year, according to Team Rankings.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 1:36 p.m. on 09/29/2025.
It’s not quite October yet, but MLB postseason action has arrived.
The latest: The wild-card round begins on Tuesday with a four-pack of games starting at 1:08 p.m. ET. These are best-of-three series, which means some teams will be sent home in a blink.
Check out the latest MLB wild-card schedule and odds for the Game 1 matchups.
MLB wild-card schedule notes
For most of the season, the Detroit Tigers led the AL Central and were positioned to clinch a bye. But their 11-game division lead as of Sept. 4 whittled away to nothing in the closing weeks, thanks in part to an 87 wRC+ in the final month (dead last among playoff teams).
The Cleveland Guardians helped their cause by going 5-1 vs. Detroit in the final two weeks of the season to steal the division title. Game 1 will feel like a must-win for the Tigers with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound.
The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs split their matchups this season, 3-3. Both teams went 2-1 at home against each other. San Diego posted a 7-1 record down the stretch and will start Nick Pivetta, who has a 2.38 ERA in 15 starts since July.
The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is nearly as old as baseball itself, and it’ll add another postseason chapter this week. Game 1 features a pair of new faces in the rivalry, as Garrett Crochet starts opposite Max Fried.
Crochet’s Red Sox went 4-0 vs. the Yankees in his first year with the club. As for Fried, he posted a 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. Boston but saw extremely limited run support. New York is 8-1 in Fried’s past nine starts overall, though.
Which team is a more surprising entrant to the wild-card round: the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Cincinnati Reds squad that was playing sub-.500 baseball as recently as Sept. 16?
This is easily the most lopsided wild-card series on paper, but anything can happen in a span of three games. The Reds went 8-3 down the stretch to steal a playoff spot, but they were just 1-5 vs. the Dodgers during the regular season.
Game 1 wild-card matchups: Sept. 30
Visit all of NorthStar Bets’ MLB markets. Click on game odds to bet now.
Detroit Tigers (-167) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+137) Start time: 11:08 a.m. MT Over/Under: 6 runs
San Diego Padres (-106) vs. Chicago Cubs (-112) Start time: 1:08 p.m. MT Over/Under: 7 runs
Boston Red Sox (+115) vs. New York Yankees (-138) Start time: 4:08 p.m. MT Over/Under: 7 runs
Cincinnati Reds (+165) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) Start time: 7:08 p.m. MT Over/Under: 7 runs
