The stage is set for an epic ALDS battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, who meet in October for the first time.
Toronto exceeded all expectations this year, clinching the AL East on the final day of the regular season with a league-best 94 wins. New York matched that total, but the Jays held the tiebreaker after dominating the regular-season series. Still, it’s Aaron Boone’s group which is favoured to win, despite starting on the road with a rest disadvantage.
Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview for the MLB postseason series beginning on Saturday, Oct. 4 at Rogers Centre.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview
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MLB odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on 03/10/2025.
The Yankees and Boston Red Sox went the full three games in the wild-card round, and New York was forced to burn through its top starting arms (Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler) in the process.
That means either Luis Gil or Will Warren will get the start in Game 1 against Kevin Gausman, setting the scene for the Jays to take an early lead.
It’s hard to imagine Toronto winning this series without taking two games at home, given how the pitching matchups should shake out and New York’s shortcomings at Rogers Centre.
The Jays went 6-1 against the Yankees at home this year, outscoring them 52-33 in those contests.
Bo Bichette was a big part of that success, though, and it seems unlikely he’ll rejoin Toronto during this series while rehabbing a knee injury.
Scoring by committee is nice, but let’s address the elephant in the room: The Jays will likely need a stellar offensive performance out of their $500 million man, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to advance.
Probable starting pitcher matchups and ALDS schedule
Game 1 in Toronto: Oct. 4, 4:08 p.m. ET
TBD vs. RHP Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)
- Gausman ended his season by giving up four runs in consecutive outings, but still posted a 2.81 ERA across 13 second-half starts. He held opponents to a .201 batting average in that span, and logged a pair of strong outings against the Yankees at home (15.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 Ks).
- At the time of writing, it’s a toss-up for Game 1. Gil has gotten hit hard at Rogers Centre (career 5.40 ERA) while Warren has gotten hit hard in general (4.40 ERA this season). You would think Boone would ride with Gil, who won AL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and has a 3.32 ERA.
Game 2 in Toronto: Oct. 5, 4:08 p.m. ET
LHP Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA)
- All signs point to Bieber starting Game 2. He’s been a home run acquisition for the Jays since the trade deadline, posting a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. Bieber has held New York’s active lineup to a .154 batting average with a 32.7% K rate in 52 at-bats.
- Starting Fried on Sunday guarantees New York the option of having him available for a winner-take-all Game 5. The southpaw just threw six scoreless innings against the Red Sox after posting a 1.89 ERA in September. Toronto has hit him hard at Rogers Centre this year, though (eight runs in 11.1 IP).
Game 3 in New York: Oct. 7, TBD
RHP Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21 ERA) vs. LHP Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA)
- Toronto’s going to need Yesavage dialled for a deep postseason run. The rookie has only made three starts, but flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, logging 16 Ks in 14.0 IP. That came after posting an absurd 14.7 K/9 rate in the minors.
- Rodon gritted his way to a quality start vs. Boston (6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB) after posting a stellar 3.09 second-half ERA. The southpaw has a 4.72 career ERA vs. Toronto, though, with New York losing four of his last five starts against the Jays.
Game 4 in New York (if necessary): Oct. 8, TBD
TBD vs. RHP Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA)
- Toronto could go Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer or a bullpen game if we get here. We saw what the latter looked like in a high-leverage game on Sept. 25 against Boston. Louie Varland served as the opener, throwing 2.0 innings before southpaw Eric Lauer went 3.1 strong. Five other relievers chipped in on the win.
- Schlittler earned his pinstripes on Thursday by suffocating the Red Sox in a do-or-die wild-card Game 3. The rookie threw eight shutout innings, with zero walks and 12 Ks. It was special. The righty got hammered in his last outing against Toronto, conceding four ERs in 1.2 IP.
Game 5 in Toronto (if necessary): Oct. 10, TBD
LHP Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)
- You would think a potential winner-take-all Game 5 should play into Toronto’s favour if the series gets there. Gausman would be pitching on five days of rest, while Fried would be pitching on four days’ rest for a second consecutive go.
- But Fried has a sparkling 2.92 career ERA on four days’ rest and a 1.75 ERA on four days’ rest this season (13 starts).
Yankees vs. Blue Jays bullpen spotlight
Bullpens can make or break a postseason run, and both teams made it a priority to shore up on big arms at the deadline.
- Toronto acquired Varland (2.97 ERA) and Seranthony Dominguez (3.00 ERA with TOR) to join an already solid group.
- Ryan Borucki, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez all sported sub-2.00 ERAs in September, and so did closer Jeff Hoffman, who has only allowed one run in his last 11.2 IP.
- All in all, the Jays’ relief corps has the fifth-best ERA (4.36) and strand rate (57.1%) in high leverage situations since Aug. 1, according to FanGraphs.
New York, meanwhile, ranked 15th (5.97 ERA) and 14th (47.5 strand rate) in those categories.
The Yankees have struggled to find consistency from their relievers, with deadline acquisition David Bednar and two-time NL Reliever of the Year Devin Williams being the best of the group.
But even those two have struggled at times, with others being downright liabilities.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees preview: Jays by the numbers
George Springer (DH/OF): Toronto could very well be out of the playoff picture right now if it weren’t for Springer. At the very least, it would be gearing up to start the series in the Bronx. The veteran led the majors in wRC+ (210), OPS (1.121) and batting average (.369) in the second half.
Sprigner is also a noted postseason menace, with 19 career home runs to his name over 67 games. That would extrapolate to a 45-homer pace over a full season.
Guerrero (1B): If Guerrero doesn’t go deep on Saturday, it will have been a full month since he’s last left the yard. He still ranks in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.
But Jays fans who have watched him in the playoffs might be holding their breath on that front. Guerrero is 3-for-22 in the posteason with one double.
He did bat a blistering .373/.439/.569 against NYY this year, though.
Gausman (SP): I mentioned Gausman’s shaky end to the season, and think it’s worth highlighting again. He gave up 17 hits and three walks in 9.1 IP — and both outings were at home. It’s reasonable to wonder if John Schneider will have a shorter leash with the righty, given his poor postseason history (6.91 ERA over 25.2 IP).
Daulton Varsho (CF): As crazy as it sounds, Varsho could be the man who decides this series. The gold glove outfielder has huge pop and will play at a pair of ballparks favourable to LHBs. He’s belted 12 homers with an .861 OPS since returning from the IL in August.
Yankees postseason performers
Aaron Judge (RF): Judge had a quietly productive wild-card round, going 4-for-11 and scoring four runs. But he had zero extra-base hits, which, like Guerrero, has become a concerning theme. Judge is slugging just .386 in his last 25 playoff games.
A date with Gausman at Rogers Centre might be just the slump-buster he needs.
The reigning AL MVP is 17-for-48 against Gausman with three doubles and six home runs (.792 SLG). He also slugged .750 in Toronto this year.
Giancarlo Stanton (DH): Stanton was a menace in the postseason last year, but went 1-for-11 in the wild-card round. That continued the big man’s underwhelming end to the season, where he posted a .224 BA and .294 OBP in September.
Cody Bellinger (OF): Bellinger might be in for a tough series. The lefty bat is running extreme reverse splits against southpaws, slashing .353/.415/.601 this year. But Toronto has zero lefties in its starting rotation, and Bellinger’s .244/.304/.437 slash line vs. RHP is nothing to write home about.
Trent Grisham (OF): Grisham is a below-average fielder who isn’t bringing anything to the plate at the moment. He went 2-for-12 in the wild-card series with five Ks and just one walk. The lefty bat is slugging .506 against righties this year, but batted just .222 in 36 PAs against Toronto.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends
- Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (91-71, 56.2%).
- Overs are 87-69-6 in Blue Jays games (2nd in MLB).
- Unders are 16-8-2 in Yankees playoff games since 2022.
- The Jays went 54-27 at home (2nd in MLB).
- The Yankees went 52-32 at home (eighth in MLB). That includes a 4-2 record against Toronto.
- The average total in Yankees vs. Blue Jays games this year was 9.92 runs.
- Jeff Hoffman is 5-for-5 in save opportunities since Aug. 27.
ALDS predictions
Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions via Avery Perri, Chris Toman and Spencer Closs.
•Blue Jays to win ALDS (+135)
Perri: Toronto’s playoff history must play a factor in its underdog status. The club is winless in six games in the Guerrero and Bichette era.
Nonetheless, I believe the Jays are a much better team.
- Toronto’s offence since the all-star break: First in the AL in OPS, batting average and wRC+.
- Its defence ranks fifth in DRS, while New York sits 14th. Errors cost the Yankees big time when they played at Rogers Centre earlier this year.
- The Blue Jays’ pen is better in higher-leverage spots, and their starting rotation has more rest.
Fried is the Yankees’ best starting arm, but his 6.35 career ERA in Toronto is alarming.
If Bichette were in the lineup, I’d wager on a sweep. Still, I trust Toronto to finish the job without him.
•Series over 4.5 games (+165)
Toman: There’s great value on this number, as far as I’m concerned.
- Toronto was the better team in the regular season, has home-field advantage and a sizable starting pitching edge in Game 1.
- I expect the Blue Jays, who ranked No. 1 in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage, to begin the ALDS with a victory before the edge might tip in New York’s favour.
The Yankees will be able to go Fried, Rodon and Schlittler for Games 2-4, which, in a vacuum, I like more than Bieber, Yesavage and TBD for Toronto.
New York hit more home runs than any club this season, ranked No. 1 in wRC+ and has the best hitter on the planet in Judge.
But do I see New York winning all three of those games? No.
Toronto, on the other hand, is a fundamentally sound team with versatility and plays great defence. But I’m not confident the Jays will have their way with New York and either sweep or take three of four.
So I love getting this big plus-money payout on the series going the distance.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees preview: Long shot prediction
•Springer to lead series in homers (+900)
Closs: Springer is coming off the best regular season of his career.
Take a look at his numbers and where they stack up in MLB.
- .959 OPS (3rd)
- 166 WRC+ (3rd)
- .560 SLG (5th)
For context, his OPS and WRC+ were higher than Cal Raleigh, who clubbed 60 homers.
Springer was truly among the elite hitters in baseball, but he’s not being priced as such.
Aaron Judge trumped Springer in all three of those stats, and he’s the rightful favourite to lead the series. But +300 for Judge is a far steeper price to pay than +900 for Springer.
This is also the playoffs where the lights shine the brightest. Unlike most, Springer is a proven playoff performer. He’s top 10 all-time in postseason home runs (19) from his time with the Houston Astros.
Finally, the Jays have the advantage of deploying their starters how they want, while the Yankees aren’t able to start with the best foot forward.
That should give Toronto hitters the slight edge, and Springer’s the best of the bunch.
