Category: MLB

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 2 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on Los Angeles and Blake Snell at +330

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Two elite southpaws are on the mound when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 2 of the NLDS.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is favoured to take a 2-0 lead behind a surging Blake Snell. Philadelphia counters with Jesus Luzardo, who has high swing-and-miss upside but lost his last start against the Dodgers.

Check out my +330 Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Game 2, featuring prop bets on Snell and Enrique Hernandez.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers F5 -0.5 | Snell over 6.5 strikeouts | Hernandez 1+ hits (+330)

Dodgers F5 -0.5 (+117): This pick has everything to do with Snell, who has been in Cy Young form since returning from a shoulder injury in August.

Just look at his numbers from then untill the end of the regular season (nine starts):

  • 2.41 ERA
  • 1.13 WHIP
  • .222 opponent BA
  • 32.7% K rate

One of those outings was against the Phillies, where Snell struck out 12 over seven shutout innings.

Luzardo was on the other end of that duel. He had a decent outing, giving up four earned runs over 7.0 IP, but he wasn’t even close to Snell’s level.

L.A.’s southpaw has dominated Philadelphia’s lineup time and time again (more on that later), and I expect him to put forth another strong postseason performance.

Snell held the Cincinnati Reds to two runs over 7.0 IP in Game 1 of the wild-card round.

Embed: #118871

MLB SGP legs

Snell over 6.5 strikeouts (-215): Snell fanned nine Reds in his Dodgers postseason debut, marking the third time in his last four games he went over this total.

Let’s get back to his numbers against Philly. In 158 combined plate appearances, the Phillies are batting .168 (.169 xBA) off Snell with a 35.4% K rate.

For context on how elite that is, Zach Wheeler led all qualified starters with a 33.3% K rate this year.

Philadelphia is also striking out at the third-highest clip vs. LHPs since the all-star break (26.1%), so I don’t magically expect the club to figure Snell out.

The lefty is a workhorse who routinely reaches the 100-pitch plateau. If he’s cruising, as I suspect, there is no reason for Dave Roberts to pull him early.

Hernandez 1+ hits (-143): Something changes inside Hernandez when the calendar flips to October.

He has a career 91 OPS+ in the regular season, meaning he’s a well-below-average player. In the postseason, though, he’s slashing .285/.356/.525 for his career.

Simply put, the man is a dog.

Hernandez is 5-for-12 in the playoffs so far (.417), logging a hit in all three games.

Batting from the right side, he’ll also have a platoon advantage against Luzardo.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 9:39 a.m. on 10/06/2025.

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Tigers vs. Mariners Game 2 ALDS SGP predictions: Expect bounce back effort from Seattle behind Rodriguez, Raleigh

Tigers vs. Mariners predictions

The Detroit Tigers have the early advantage over the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS.

The pregame narrative: Detroit squeaked out a 3-2 win behind solid pitching from starter Troy Melton and seven different bullpen arms. On Sunday, the Tigers have the luxury of sending out ace Tarik Skubal to counter Luis Castillo for the Mariners in Game 2.

Check out my +310 Tigers vs. Mariners predictions for Game 2, featuring prop bets on Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh.

Tigers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Mariners +1.5 | Rodriguez 1+ hits | Raleigh 1+ hits (+310)

Mariners +1.5 (-186): I like Seattle’s chances of tying the series, so I’ll take a stab at the runline in this SGP.

Skubal is an obvious advantage whenever he’s on the mound, but he’s been more human against the Mariners in two starts this season.

  • In 10.2 innings, the Tigers ace allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs. He walked five batters in those starts, which is a sign that the Mariners at least see Skubal better than other teams.
  • Seattle went 2-0 in those games, and Skubal allowed 3+ earned runs in both starts.

Castillo also happened to start both of those contests. The postseason is a different beast, but that’s two games of direct correlation to go off of.

We also can’t forget the run the Mariners went on to win the AL West. They won 17 of their final 21 regular-season games.

MLB SGP legs

Rodriguez 1+ hits (-134): Only two players had hits on the Mariners yesterday. Rodriguez had three, and superstar catcher Raleigh had three, but more on him later.

That isn’t going to win ball games, but it’s encouraging to see Seattle’s top two hitters do some damage in Game 1.

  • Rodriguez was on a tear down the stretch. He had a .304 batting average over his final 29 games. He went 22-7 against this wager in those games.
  • In Skubal’s last start against the Mariners on June 11, Rodriguez hit a two-run homer off the lefty in the fifth inning.

The slugging outfielder is hot right now and has a ton of value on his hits prop because of the matchup. But I’m confident Rodriguez can break through.

Raleigh 1+ hits (-124): Let’s get back to Raleigh.

He had a historic season, becoming the first catcher and switch-hitter in MLB history to hit 60 home runs.

Raleigh doesn’t have the best head-to-head stats against Skubal, going 2-for-9 in his career, but he does have a bomb off the lefty.

And let’s be honest, Raleigh was a low-contact swing and miss hitter with some pop before becoming truly elite this season.

In both games Skubal started this season vs. Seattle, Raleigh is 2-0 on this wager.

Additionally, he had at least a hit in 21 of 25 games to close out the regular season. This is another instance where I’ll back a streaking hitter with some strong value in a tough matchup.

Tigers vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:39 a.m. on 10/05/2025.

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Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALDS best bets: Bet on George Springer, Trey Yesavage to perform

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are back in action for Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the scoring yesterday with a mammoth home run, and Toronto never looked back in a 10-1 win. Now, the Jays turn to rookie Trey Yesavage, who will try to out-duel Yankees ace Max Fried. New York has won five of Fried’s last six starts and is favoured today.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Yesavage.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Springer to score (+105)

Getting Toronto’s leadoff man to score at plus money isn’t something you’d often see during the regular season.

But we’re in October, and I want every piece of this inflated line.

Springer was the Jays’ MVP this year, and his ridiculous second-half helped Toronto secure the No. 1 seed.

  • First in OPS (1.121)
  • First in wRC+ (210)
  • Second in batting average (.369)
  • Fourth in runs scored (53)

Springer went 0-4 in Saturday’s series opener, but still walked and scored. He has now cashed this wager in four of his last five games with six total runs.

Fried is obviously an elite talent, but Springer has had the southpaw’s number.

He is 5-for-15 against the lefty with two doubles, no strikeouts, and two walks, and his .334 xBA and .579 xSLG indicate those results were well earned.

Getting aboard seems like a certainty, and I fully trust Toronto’s lineup to drive him home.

The Jays have shelled Fried twice at Rogers Centre this year, scoring 10 runs against him in 11.1 IP. Springer scored in both of those contests.

Key stat: Fried has a career 6.35 ERA at the Rogers Centre.

Other MLB postseason predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (+105): Yesavage is making his fourth career start today, and I think he’ll have Yankees hitters in knots.

The rookie posted an otherworldly 14.5 K/9 rate in the minors this season, and has looked solid in the big leagues so far:

  • Sept. 15 @ TB: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks
  • Sept. 21 @ KC: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks
  • Sept. 27 vs. TB: 5,0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 Ks

Yesavage posted a 35.4% whiff rate in those outings. Dylan Cease led all qualified pitchers with a 33.4% whiff rate in the regular season.

I’ll cut him some slack for his performance against the Kansas City Royals, who had the second-lowest K rate in MLB.

New York swings freely and owned the sixth-highest K (23.5) and whiff (26.4) rates during the season.

That’s fine and dandy when the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball, but I’m not sold on their offence through four playoff games.

Aaron Judge is the biggest reason why the team is a threat, but he’s routinely shrunken under the bright lights of the postseason.

I don’t trust him to produce, and think Yesavage should have the leash to pitch into the fifth inning or deeper if he can get through the heart of New York’s order twice.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 8:17 a.m. on 10/05/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALDS best bets: Bet on George Springer, Trey Yesavage to perform

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are back in action for Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the scoring yesterday with a mammoth home run, and Toronto never looked back in a 10-1 win. Now, the Jays turn to rookie Trey Yesavage, who will try to out-duel Yankees ace Max Fried. New York has won five of Fried’s last six starts and is favoured today.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Yesavage.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Springer to score (+112)

Getting Toronto’s leadoff man to score at plus money isn’t something you’d often see during the regular season.

But we’re in October, and I want every piece of this inflated line.

Springer was the Jays’ MVP this year, and his ridiculous second-half helped Toronto secure the No. 1 seed.

  • First in OPS (1.121)
  • First in wRC+ (210)
  • Second in batting average (.369)
  • Fourth in runs scored (53)

Springer went 0-4 in Saturday’s series opener, but still walked and scored. He has now cashed this wager in four of his last five games with six total runs.

Fried is obviously an elite talent, but Springer has had the southpaw’s number.

He is 5-for-15 against the lefty with two doubles, no strikeouts, and two walks, and his .334 xBA and .579 xSLG indicate those results were well earned.

Getting aboard seems like a certainty, and I fully trust Toronto’s lineup to drive him home.

The Jays have shelled Fried twice at Rogers Centre this year, scoring 10 runs against him in 11.1 IP. Springer scored in both of those contests.

Key stat: Fried has a career 6.35 ERA at the Rogers Centre.

Embed: #118825

Other MLB postseason predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-121): Yesavage is making his fourth career start today, and I think he’ll have Yankees hitters in knots.

The rookie posted an otherworldly 14.5 K/9 rate in the minors this season, and has looked solid in the big leagues so far:

  • Sept. 15 @ TB: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks
  • Sept. 21 @ KC: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks
  • Sept. 27 vs. TB: 5,0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 Ks

Yesavage posted a 35.4% whiff rate in those outings. Dylan Cease led all qualified pitchers with a 33.4% whiff rate in the regular season.

I’ll cut him some slack for his performance against the Kansas City Royals, who had the second-lowest K rate in MLB.

New York swings freely and owned the sixth-highest K (23.5) and whiff (26.4) rates during the season.

That’s fine and dandy when the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball, but I’m not sold on their offence through four playoff games.

Aaron Judge is the biggest reason why the team is a threat, but he’s routinely shrunken under the bright lights of the postseason.

I don’t trust him to produce, and think Yesavage should have the leash to pitch into the fifth inning or deeper if he can get through the heart of New York’s order twice.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 8:17 a.m. on 10/05/2025.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 1 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on L.A., Andy Pages in +175 ticket

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: It’s very reasonable to say that the NL’s two best teams are meeting up in this series. Los Angeles enters Game 1 as an underdog, but I’ll happily back the visiting club on this ticket. I’m also looking to back a certain L.A. outfielder.

Check out my +175 Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Andy Pages.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers ML | Pages 1+ hits (+175)

Dodgers ML (-106): Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for L.A., and that’s bad news for Philadelphia.

The Dodgers starter enters the playoffs in fine form. He pitched 14.2 innings across three appearances in September, allowing zero earned runs, striking out 18, and surrendering two walks.

That included five hitless innings with five punchouts against Philadelphia.

Historically, Phillies hitters are batting a lowly .091 with a dreadful .252 xwOBA in 23 plate appearances versus Ohtani.

The southpaw also boasts a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against this lineup.

Sanchez starts for Philadelphia, and there’s reason to be concerned, but more on that later.

MLB SGP legs

Pages 1+ hits (-200): I like the value on Pages to get a hit for several reasons.

Firstly, this is a pretty solid hitter. Pages batted .272 on the campaign, bringing his average up 24 points from the previous season (.248).

The outfielder does well against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez, too, which helps his cause in this contest. Pages posted a .313 BA vs. LHPs this year, compared to just .258 BA vs. RHPs.

He’s also familiar with Sanchez, specifically. The two have squared off 10 times, with Pages registering a hit in four of their meetings.

Pages swatted two hits against Sanchez the last time these two squared off on Sept. 16.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 12:36 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 1 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on L.A., Andy Pages in +275 ticket

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: It’s very reasonable to say that the NL’s two best teams are meeting up in this series. Los Angeles enters Game 1 as an underdog, but I’ll happily back the visiting club on this ticket. I’m also looking to back a certain L.A. outfielder and fade Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez.

Check out my +275 Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Andy Pages.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers ML | Pages 1+ hits | Sanchez under 6.5 Ks (+275)

Dodgers ML (+104): Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for L.A., and that’s bad news for Philadelphia.

The Dodgers starter enters the playoffs in fine form. He pitched 14.2 innings across three appearances in September, allowing zero earned runs, striking out 18, and surrendering two walks.

That included five hitless innings with five punchouts against Philadelphia.

Historically, Phillies hitters are batting a lowly .091 with a dreadful .252 xwOBA in 23 plate appearances versus Ohtani.

The southpaw also boasts a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against this lineup.

Sanchez starts for Philadelphia, and there’s reason to be concerned, but more on that later.

Embed: #118762

MLB SGP legs

Pages 1+ hits (-180): I like the value on Pages to get a hit for several reasons.

Firstly, this is a pretty solid hitter. Pages batted .272 on the campaign, bringing his average up 24 points from the previous season (.248).

The outfielder does well against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez, too, which helps his cause in this contest. Pages posted a .313 BA vs. LHPs this year, compared to just .258 BA vs. RHPs.

He’s also familiar with Sanchez, specifically. The two have squared off 10 times, with Pages registering a hit in four of their meetings.

Pages swatted two hits against Sanchez the last time these two squared off on Sept. 16.

Sanchez under 6.5 strikeouts (-182): Lastly, I’m fading Sanchez on his strikeouts prop.

Sanchez was one of MLB’s best at generating punchouts this past season, ranking seventh among all hurlers (212 Ks).

But this number seems a little too high for several reasons.

Firstly, this isn’t a total Sanchez tops regularly. The lefty has gone below this mark in nine of his last 12 outings. One of those misses was a six-strikeout effort vs. this Dodgers squad.

Additionally, L.A. has been able to generate offence against Sanchez in their meetings. Sanchez surrendered eight earned runs across two appearances vs. L.A. this year.

With managers having a lower tolerance for pitching woes in the postseason, a shorter outing from Sanchez likely keeps him below the number.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 12:36 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Best MLB Game 1 division series prop bets: Bet on Hernandez to rake, fade Schwarber in NLDS showdown

MLB prop bets

MLB’s division series begin on Saturday, and I’m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that’s bad news for the Phillies’ chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, Teoscar Hernandez is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Kerry Carpenter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Carpenter over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+125), to get a hit (-167)

Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who’s somewhat generously nicknamed “Kerry Bonds.”

The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 3-0 vs. this hits/runs/RBI prop.

Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).

He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:

  • 4-for-8
  • 4 HRs
  • 104 mph average exit velocity

Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).

Still, Kirby’s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile.

And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.

Key stat: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.

MLB postseason player props

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+100): If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.

Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot.

But it’s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber’s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.

Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters.

Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he’s batting .192 with 45 Ks.

In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+130): Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers’ two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.

In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.

The ex-Blue Jay didn’t have his best year overall, but I’m still partial to backing him when there’s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.

When facing Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 10/04/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALDS best bets: Look for Guerrero, Gausman to fuel a Toronto win

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

For the first time since 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Division Series — and their voyage starts Saturday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Since the all-star break, Toronto’s offence has been humming. So has Kevin Gausman, who will get the ball for the home team this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 3-1 vs. the Yankees with Gausman on the mound this season.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-125)

It’s been a while since the excitement and expectations were this high for the Blue Jays, and they’re equipped to match that energy in Game 1.

Coming off the club’s highest win total since the early ’90s World Series years, Toronto is the top seed in the AL. That status came down to a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Yankees.

The Blue Jays went 8-5 vs. the Yankees this season, including 6-1 at home.

Gausman had a rough start in New York all the way back in April, but he turned the page for three strong outings over the summer:

  • July 1: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 K
  • July 21: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K
  • Sept. 5: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K

The Yankees are seeing the best version of Gausman right now. Since the all-star break, he has a 2.81 ERA and a .201 opponent BA.

As for New York’s Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA), his underlying numbers tell a different story than his on-paper production.

Gil has had a nice year since returning from the injured list in August. I’m still not sold on his ability to shut down a talented lineup, though.

The right-hander ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in some key analytical metrics (per Baseball Savant): xERA, average exit velocity, ground ball rate, chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.

Toronto had the No. 1 offence in baseball in the second half, posting a 123 wRC+ and averaging 5.4 runs per game.

Backed by home-field advantage and a red-hot Gausman, I like the Jays to take Game 1.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have the best home record in the AL this season (54-27).

Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+110): High walk rates for Guerrero as a hitter and Gil as a pitcher steered me away from a total bases prediction today.

But I wanted something on Guerrero, and at plus-money odds, this is a way I’m happy to back him.

  • Vladdy is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks vs. Gil.
  • He ranked eighth in the regular season in runs (96) and third in on-base percentage (.381).
  • In 154 starts, Guerrero scored 75 times (48.7%). That’s a slightly higher rate than the 48.1% implied probability on this prop price.

I’m sure the Yankees will try to be careful with Guerrero, and Gil’s wildness could lead to a free pass or two regardless. As long as Vladdy finds a way on, he’ll have a chance.

Volpe under 0.5 hits (+100): Volpe has four hits through three postseason games so far, but three of them were grounders that snuck through.

Over his final 26 starts in the regular season, Volpe cashed this under 13 times while batting just .198.

His .212 BA for the season was the second-worst among 145 qualified hitters.

Now he’ll face Gausman, who has excelled at keeping the shortstop quiet in the past. Volpe is just 3-for-24 vs. Gausman with one walk and 10 strikeouts.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds as of 11:36 a.m. on 10/04/2025.

Best MLB Game 1 division series prop bets: Bet on Hernandez to rake, fade Schwarber in NLDS showdown

MLB prop bets

MLB’s division series begin on Saturday, and I’m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that’s bad news for the Phillies’ chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, Teoscar Hernandez is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Kerry Carpenter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+185), to get a hit (-134)

Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who’s somewhat generously nicknamed “Kerry Bonds.”

The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 2-1 vs. this bases prop.

Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).

He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:

  • 4-for-8
  • 4 HRs
  • 104 mph average exit velocity

Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).

Still, Kirby’s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile.

And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.

Key stat: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.

Embed: #118751

MLB postseason player props

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (-118): If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.

Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot.

But it’s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber’s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.

Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters.

Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he’s batting .192 with 45 Ks.

In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers’ two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.

In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.

The ex-Blue Jay didn’t have his best year overall, but I’m still partial to backing him when there’s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.

When facing Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 10/04/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALDS best bets: Look for Guerrero, Gausman to fuel a Toronto win

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

For the first time since 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Division Series — and their voyage starts Saturday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Since the all-star break, Toronto’s offence has been humming. So has Kevin Gausman, who will get the ball for the home team this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 3-1 vs. the Yankees with Gausman on the mound this season.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-129)

It’s been a while since the excitement and expectations were this high for the Blue Jays, and they’re equipped to match that energy in Game 1.

Coming off the club’s highest win total since the early ’90s World Series years, Toronto is the top seed in the AL. That status came down to a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Yankees.

The Blue Jays went 8-5 vs. the Yankees this season, including 6-1 at home.

Gausman had a rough start in New York all the way back in April, but he turned the page for three strong outings over the summer:

  • July 1: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 K
  • July 21: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K
  • Sept. 5: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K

The Yankees are seeing the best version of Gausman right now. Since the all-star break, he has a 2.81 ERA and a .201 opponent BA.

As for New York’s Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA), his underlying numbers tell a different story than his on-paper production.

Gil has had a nice year since returning from the injured list in August. I’m still not sold on his ability to shut down a talented lineup, though.

The right-hander ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in some key analytical metrics (per Baseball Savant): xERA, average exit velocity, ground ball rate, chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.

Toronto had the No. 1 offence in baseball in the second half, posting a 123 wRC+ and averaging 5.4 runs per game.

Backed by home-field advantage and a red-hot Gausman, I like the Jays to take Game 1.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have the best home record in the AL this season (54-27).

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Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+108): High walk rates for Guerrero as a hitter and Gil as a pitcher steered me away from a total bases prediction today.

But I wanted something on Guerrero, and at plus-money odds, this is a way I’m happy to back him.

  • Vladdy is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks vs. Gil.
  • He ranked eighth in the regular season in runs (96) and third in on-base percentage (.381).
  • In 154 starts, Guerrero scored 75 times (48.7%). That’s a slightly higher rate than the 48.1% implied probability on this prop price.

I’m sure the Yankees will try to be careful with Guerrero, and Gil’s wildness could lead to a free pass or two regardless. As long as Vladdy finds a way on, he’ll have a chance.

Volpe under 0.5 hits (-106): Volpe has four hits through three postseason games so far, but three of them were grounders that snuck through.

Over his final 26 starts in the regular season, Volpe cashed this under 13 times while batting just .198.

His .212 BA for the season was the second-worst among 145 qualified hitters.

Now he’ll face Gausman, who has excelled at keeping the shortstop quiet in the past. Volpe is just 3-for-24 vs. Gausman with one walk and 10 strikeouts.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds as of 8:36 a.m. on 10/04/2025.