Bet 101 Archives - Page 4 of 5

How to bet on the Oilers: Connor McDavid props, totals and puck lines

There’s arguably no NHL team more exciting than the Edmonton Oilers.

The pure thrill of watching Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl has turned the squad into required viewing.

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When getting ready to watch the next Oilers game, you may be looking to bet on the team but don’t know how to do so. Don’t sweat — we have you covered.

How to bet on the Oilers

There’s no shortage of options when it comes to betting on the Oilers. That’s especially true with McDavid and Draisaitl in the fold, as they make Edmonton a threat to go off every time they take the ice.

But there are a number of different factors you should focus on that may ultimately influence what you decide to bet on. Those include the opponent, location, trends, injuries and the odds.

We’ll explore some of the most popular betting markets and offer advice on how to place the best wagers.

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Moneyline

If you like Edmonton’s chances of winning its upcoming game, then a moneyline (ML) bet may be for you.

A moneyline wager involves backing the team that you think will win the hockey game. Regardless of the score or whether it goes to overtime or shootout, the team that wins the game wins the moneyline bet.

The team deemed as the underdog will be presented with a plus (+) symbol in front of its odds. You will see a minus (-) symbol for the favourite.

Edmonton’s status for any game will typically depend on its opponent and the location of the contest. The Oilers would likely be a heavy favourite in a home game against the Montreal Canadiens and a smaller favourite when hosting the Calgary Flames, for example.

In a road game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, however, the Oilers will find themselves labelled as an underdog.

-> Want to see current Oilers moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

The odds for each of these contests would look something like this:

Senators (+240) vs. Oilers (-300)
Flames (+135) vs. Oilers (-155)
Oilers (+120) vs. Maple Leafs (-140)

Those odds tell us a few things, including who the favourite and underdog is. It also tells us what our sportsbook believes each of those teams’ chances of winning is in addition to how much you could profit on a successful bet.

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
-300	75%	$300	$100
-155	60.78%	$155	$100
+120	45.45%	$100	$120

In the first example, it likely isn’t wise to place a moneyline wager on the Oilers. Although the implied win probability sits at 75%, a $300 wager only returns $100.

This game would be a better opportunity to bet on the Oilers puck line, which we’ll explain in our next section.

Knowing when to back the Oilers on the moneyline vs. the puck line is important. Photo by Jason Franson/The Canadian Press.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea, however, to place a moneyline bet on Edmonton in the second and third examples. Against the Flames, it requires a $155 wager to return $100.

As for the Leafs game, you would get a nice ROI if Edmonton pulled off the upset.

Puck line

Let’s start off with the Canadiens example and outline why the puck line is a better bet than the moneyline for this game. It all comes down to value.

Unlike a moneyline bet, a puck line will have a designated point spread accompanied by the selection. Puck lines are typically set at 1.5 goals, though the lines can occasionally be 2.5 goals or more. As a result, the odds will be different from the moneyline.

Here’s how the puck line odds could look for the games we listed above:

Canadiens +1.5 (+105) vs. Oilers -1.5 (-125)
Flames +1.5 (-200) vs. Oilers -1.5 (+170)
Oilers +1.5 (-195) vs. Maple Leafs -1.5 (+175)

For the first listings, the -1.5 next to Edmonton signifies that the team is being stripped of a goal and a half. Against the Canadiens and Flames, the Oilers would have to win by two goals or more to cover the puck line.

In other words: If you backed Edmonton to win on the puck line and they were only victorious by one goal, you would lose the bet.

The +1.5 next to Edmonton, on the other hand, means the Oilers are getting a goal and a half. That means Edmonton could lose the game by a goal or win outright and it would cover the puck line.

The payout structures for a bet on the Oilers from those examples would look like this:

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
-125	55.56%	$125	$100
+170	37.04%	$100	$170
-195	66.10%	$195	$100

The Canadiens game presents the best opportunity to wager on the puck line over the moneyline. Although the implied win probability drops from 75% to 55.56%, the amount wagered drops from $300 to $125 in order to win $100.

Finding that difference in value is important when placing bets.

In the second example, however, we’d recommend a bet on the moneyline. Considering it is much more difficult to win a game by two goals than one (especially against a team nearly equal to Edmonton in skill like Calgary), the moneyline presents a higher implied win probability and a solid return.

In the Maple Leafs example, the moneyline is a much better option as it’s rare to get Edmonton at plus-money odds in that market.

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How to bet on Oilers totals

There are ways to bet on an Oilers game without wagering on the final result. You can bet on game totals, which involves wagering on the number of goals scored in a game.

Game total lines are typically set at 5.5 or 6.5 goals. You can bet on whether the two teams will combine for more or fewer goals than the specified total.

Let’s use the Oilers and Maple Leafs game as an example. If the total is set at 6.5 goals and you believe the two sides will combine for seven goals or more, you’d place a bet on the over.

You’d bet the under if you believed the squads were more likely to combine for six goals or fewer.

Totals can also be presented as over/under or O/U, but they all refer to the same market.

Team totals are another option available to bet on. Rather than betting on the combined total of goals, team totals involve wagering on just one side’s goal total.

These lines are usually set at 2.5 or 3.5 goals, and you’d have the option to select the over or under on how many goals you believe the Oilers will score.

-> Compare totals across every Oilers matchup when you sign up for NorthStar Bets

How to bet on Oilers props

Similar to game totals, props offer another way to bet on a game that doesn’t directly involve the final score. Prop bets can vary from betting on which team will win more periods to which team will score the first goal.

Prop bets also involve player performance, which is what we’ll explore here.

Popular player props include whether or not a player will record a goal or assist, as well as the number of shots they will take in a game.

For instance, you may believe McDavid is a good bet to score a goal in an upcoming Oilers game. When going to place your bet on McDavid to score a goal, typically there’ll be three options to choose from: first, last and anytime.

First refers to McDavid scoring the first goal of the game, last represents the last goal of the game and anytime means you are betting on him to score at any point during the contest.

The implied probability of McDavid scoring the first or last goal of the game is obviously lower as there is only one first and last goal, therefore the odds reflect that. The implied probability of him scoring at any point during the game is much higher, and that’s priced into his odds.

Here’s how McDavid’s goal odds could look:

+700 to score the first goal (12.50% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $700.
+700 to score the last goal (12.50% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $700.
+100 to score anytime (50.00% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $100.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

Parlays and more

When you make multiple bets on one ticket, that’s known as a parlay.

Your chances of winning drop significantly with each event added to the ticket. If one leg (another name for event) loses, the entire ticket is toast.

Going back to the Oilers and Maple Leafs game as an example, you may believe that Edmonton will cover the puck line, McDavid will score a goal and the contest will go over 6.5 goals. You could decide to bet on each event individually or you may be offered a pre-built special that combines the three.

You may also be able to build your own same-game parlay.

-> Build your own Oilers same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

Here’s what it would look like to bet those three examples individually:

Oilers +1.5 (-195)
McDavid anytime goalscorer (+100)
Over 6.5 total goals (-110)

This is how it would change if you combined the three events:

Oilers +1.5, McDavid anytime goalscorer, over 6.5 total goals (+477).

The listed odds for this parlay example are +477, while the odds for each individual bet sit at a much lower number. A successful $100 bet on this parlay would generate a profit of $477.

That’s nearly four times greater than all of those individual events at the same $100 stake. Again, that’s because correctly predicting multiple events on the same ticket is more difficult than getting just one right and, as a result, lowers the win probability.

There are more ways to get in on Oilers action through live betting and the futures market, where you can pick Edmonton to win the Cup or McDavid to win the Hart Trophy.

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How to bet on the Raptors: Point spreads, totals and player props

Have you ever wondered how to bet on the Toronto Raptors? If the answer to that question is yes, you’ve come to the right place

The good thing for those new to the betting space is that it doesn’t matter whether the Raptors are playing at their championship level from 2019 or as poorly as they were during the dark days of the Kevin O’Neill era. There are betting options every time they take the court.

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Many markets, thanks to player props, don’t even require you to pick them to win or lose. Let’s dive in and check out the ways you can wager on Canada’s favourite team.

How to bet on the Raptors

You will have a wide range of betting markets to choose from any time the Raptors play. Deciding what to wager on comes down to a number of factors every night — the opponent, the location, trends, the health of the roster, and so on — but you won’t be short on options.

We’ll take a look at the common markets that sportsbooks make available and offer strategies on how to find the best value when betting on the Raptors.

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How to bet on the Raptors moneyline

If you’ve decided that you believe the Raptors will beat their opponent then you have a couple of options on how to make that bet. You can wager on the Raptors to win the game outright, which would simply require them to defeat the other team. That’s known as a moneyline bet.

How much the Raptors won by or if they required overtime to secure the victory wouldn’t matter.

Sportsbooks will either list the Raptors as a favourite or underdog for any game they play. This is universal across all the major sports. The favourite will have a minus (-) sign before its odds, while the underdog will come with a plus (+) marker.

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Against an elite team, like the Golden State Warriors, the Raptors would be large underdogs. But at home against the Charlotte Hornets, Toronto would surely be a sizeable favourite. At home against the Atlanta Hawks, the line would likely be fairly even.

Here’s an example of how those odds would be presented:

Warriors (-370) vs. Raptors (+255)
Hornets (+190) vs. Raptors (-175)
Hawks (+120) vs. Raptors (-125)

Those odds tell you what your potential earnings would be if you won your bet and the implied probability of each team’s chances of winning that contest. Both of those things are important when determining which team to bet on. Let’s take a look at what that would mean if you backed the Raptors for those bets.

Odds	Wager	Win	Probability
-125	$125	$100	55.56%
-175	$175	$100	63.64%
+255	$100	$255	28.17%

For reasons such as Stephen Curry, we wouldn’t recommend taking the Raptors on the moneyline against Golden State.

While a more difficult matchup than the Hornets game, the return on investment is noticeably greater for that Hawks contest. To win $100, you have to wager $50 more for that Charlotte game compared to Atlanta.

As for the Hornets, taking a team at -175 on the moneyline isn’t the most ideal way to bet on this contest. But that brings us to our next section, which is how to bet the Raptors on the point spread.

Point spread

The point spread is another way you can bet on a team to win. The difference between betting on the spread and the moneyline is that the team you pick to win has to do it by a certain amount of points. A team can also lose outright, but win on a spread pick if the margin of defeat is within a certain amount of points.

Let’s stick with our Raptors and Hornets example to better illustrate the spread and why it would be a better play than the moneyline in this particular instance.

On the ML (short for moneyline), we see the Raptors are a -175 favourite. But on a point spread, in which they might be favoured to cover 6.5 points, their odds would change since there is a greater degree of difficulty in beating a team by seven points (which would be needed with a 6.5-point spread) than a single point.

*The point spread is often the better bet for teams that are heavy favourites on the moneyline. Photo by Mary Altaffer*/AP.

Most spreads have the same odds, typically set at -110. So the line would look like this:

Raptors -6.5 (-110)
Hornets +6.5 (-110)

If you picked the Raptors on the spread, you would win your ticket if they won by seven or more points. Let’s say you picked the Hornets, they could lose by six points or fewer or win the game, and you would cash your bet.

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Point spread vs. moneyline

Taking the Raptors against a struggling Hornets team on the spread at -110 odds would be a better bet than getting them at -175 on the ML.

How did we come to that conclusion? For starters, the Raptors are the better team and playing at home. We’ve decided we think their chances of winning the game are higher than Charlotte’s, and so did the sportsbook that we used for our example based on that 63-plus percent probability of winning.

With that established, we want to determine where the best value is. For us, that’s taking the Raptors on the spread because it’s not a foregone conclusion that they would win this game, and if we’re backing them to win we want to avoid the amount of juice (commission the sportsbook gets for taking the bet) we are paying.

With that said, we don’t believe a 6.5-point spread is too difficult for them to cover in this matchup and it would also produce a greater return on investment.

*It’s important to find the value and not blindly back favourites. Photo by Frank Gunn/CP*

We know that it would take a $175 wager to win $100 at -175 odds on the moneyline. For the point spread bet, you would need to spend $110 to win $100. Put another way, you would make more than $30 extra on the spread versus the ML for every $100 spent.

You can also wager on alternative spreads. That 5.5 number was the main spread, but sportsbooks will give you the option to bet at different numbers in either direction (say 4.5, 7.5, etc). The -110 odds would change as a result.

When looking at spreads and totals, make sure to check how each team fares in those categories. Many sites track a team’s record against the spread (ATS) and how often they go over or under the point total set by the operator. These can be useful tools when determining which side to place your bet on.

Speaking of the over/under, we will now take a look at how to bet on Raptors totals.

Totals

Let’s stay with the Raptors and Hornets example. Generally speaking, most sportsbooks set the total of an NBA game somewhere between 200-230 points. That’s the total number of combined points between the two teams. You’d be able to choose whether you think the teams will go over or under that number.

You will see totals referred to as the over/under and O/U. They all mean the same thing.

The O/U for this matchup might be listed at 217.5. Both options are typically set at -110 odds, like the spread. If you want to bet on this market, then you have the option to select the over, which would require the teams to combine for 218 points or more, or take the under. You would cash your bet if they scored 217 points or fewer.

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How the teams fare offensively and defensively and who’s available for the matchup are certain things you will want to research before making your decision.

You can also bet on a team’s total as well. A team total would be set lower since it doesn’t account for the opponent’s production.

If you’re confident the Raptors are going to put up a lot of points but aren’t as sure about how much the Hornets will contribute, you may find betting the over on the team total is a better option for you. This might be a number of around 110.5.

Like the spread, you can bet on alternative game totals as well.

How to bet Raptors props

Props are another way to bet and involve wagering on certain game or individual outcomes that have nothing to do with the winner or loser of the contest.

You could make a bet that is isolated to the beginning of the game and pick the team that will score 15 points first or wager the over/under on how many points Scottie Barnes will score.

There are many options, but in this section, we will focus on player props.

Most sportsbooks have a number of different prop offerings, including markets on a player’s point, rebound, and assist totals. The 3-point market is also popular. These props give the bettor the option to wager on the O/U number that is established by the sportsbook.

*There are a number of player prop bets you can make on Toronto stars like RJ Barrett. Photo by Frank Gunn/CP.*

Going back to Barnes, his points prop might be listed at 21.5, giving you the option to take the over or under. A lesser scorer, such as Gradey Dick, might see his point prop set at 12.5.

Assist, rebound, and 3-point props follow the same format. Many sportsbooks will also give the option to wager on a player’s total combined point, rebound, and assist numbers or a combination of the two. Barnes’ point + rebound + assist prop would be set at something like 36.5 and you’d be able to wager on either side.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

The over/under odds are sometimes in the same range, but they will often shade to one side as well. That means the sportsbook, for example, may set an over at -140 (believing it’s the more likely outcome) and the under at +120.

Specials

You’ll be given the option to bet on certain specials that may be geared around one player or feature multiple outcomes that essentially make it a pre-built parlay.

For instance, in addition to betting the over/under on Barnes’ 21.5 points prop, a sportsbook could also give you the option of placing a wager on him scoring 30-plus points at say +250.

You may also see a special that combines the game outcome, team total, and a player’s point total. It could look like this:

Raptors to win, over 217.5 points, Barnes to score 20-plus points (+185).

-> Build your own NBA same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

You might be inclined to make this wager because you’ve decided you’re confident that the Raps will win, combine with Orlando to hit the over on the total, and that Barnes is a good bet to score 20 or more points. Certain sportsbooks will present you with different combinations or allow you to build your own (known as a same-game parlay).

But remember: You would need all three of those outcomes to be correct in order to win and it’s more difficult to win that sort of ticket compared to a single-event wager.

There are many more ways to bet on the Raptors. Parlays, futures and live betting are all among the additional popular betting markets.

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Key NFL betting strategies you should know

The NFL is the most-watched sport in North America and a heavy hitter among bettors.

Sundays present a great opportunity to place NFL wagers and enjoy loads of action. But there are some key factors to consider before locking in your bets. If you’re unsure of what to look for, you could be missing an important piece of information.

That’s why we’re here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next football bet.

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NFL betting strategies

When preparing for your next NFL bet, start by selecting a market to wager on. With moneylines, point spreads, totals, props and futures all available to you, narrowing the scope of your research to one betting market certainly helps.

We’ll examine a variety of markets and offer some advice on how to make NFL wagers.

Moneyline and point spread strategies

NFL = Not For Long

Perhaps the best piece of advice we can give is to say the NFL doesn’t always make sense. Some might argue that the league usually doesn’t make sense. Upsets are common and parity is plentiful.

What we mean by not for long is that an assumption you have about a team one week can be disproven the next.

Take the Cincinnati Bengals, for example. In Week 7 of the 2021 season, the Bengals dismantled the Baltimore Ravens 41-17 on the road to move into a tie with the Ravens atop the AFC North.

The following week, however, the Bengals fell to the lowly New York Jets, who deployed backup quarterback Mike White.

The Jets entered with a 1-5 record, and they’d been crushed 54-13 by the New England Patriots the week prior. In classic NFL fashion, the Bengals lost 34-31 and failed to cover the double-digit point spread.

The Bengals proved how quickly perceptions can change in the NFL. Photo by Noah K. Murray/AP.

As proven by Cincinnati’s run to the Super Bowl, the Bengals were worthy of hefty spreads against lesser opponents. What the Bengals-Jets game proved, though, is that anybody can beat anybody in the NFL.

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Bank on the backup

It’s no secret that quarterbacks play the most important position in football. The best ones tend to play for the better teams, while the worst are generally found on bottom-feeders. But the precise value of a quarterback can be tough for oddsmakers to gauge.

In particular, bookies have struggled to properly weigh the value of starting QBs on playoff-calibre teams. Over the past three seasons, playoff teams have enjoyed great success against the spread (ATS) when starting backup quarterbacks (meaning a QB who wasn’t the designated starter to begin the season).

An example of this from last season would be the Week 9 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers was forced to miss the game and his absence moved the line from Chiefs -0.5 to Chiefs -7.5. The line shift to more than a touchdown proved to be an over adjustment by the books as Green Bay led entering the fourth quarter and ultimately covered the spread, losing 13-7.

Since 2019, backups on playoff teams own an astounding ATS record of 40-20.

These backup QBs went 7-4 in 2021, 16-10 in 2020, and 17-6 in 2019. The most notable quarterback from this span is Ryan Tannehill, who usurped Marcus Mariota in 2019.

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The Titans didn’t plan on Ryan Tannehill being the starter, but he stole the job and never gave it back. Photo by James Kenney/AP.

After receiving an opportunity to start in Week 7, Tannehill went 7-3 ATS in the regular season, and then 2-1 in the postseason.

Even without Tannehill’s 9-4 ATS record in 2019, all other backups went 8-2.

Back the ‘dog at home on Monday night

It’s not every week that you see a team catching points at home on Monday Night Football, but recent results suggest you should feel good about backing that side.

Since 2020, there have been 18 underdog hosts in Monday’s primetime matchup, and the home team has covered 13 times. On the moneyline, these underdogs own a respectable 7-11 record.

In fact, the largest Monday Night Football home underdog over the past two seasons, the Bengals (+14.5), defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 in Week 16 of 2020.

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Late-season back-to-back weeks on the road

One situation we love to bet against is a team playing on the road for consecutive weeks — specifically during a later portion of the year. As the season rolls on, NFL players’ bumps and bruises really start to add up.

Travel adds another negative factor to that. In 2021, the NFL’s first 18-week season, most squads struggled when travelling for consecutive weeks.

From Week 9 onward, teams playing consecutive road matchups went 18-23 ATS in their second game. That number worsens to 14-23 without the San Francisco 49ers, who were perfect in four tries (including playoffs).

While that’s an incredible accomplishment for the Niners, it’s also a major outlier. Looking even later in the year, from Week 17 onward, teams playing in consecutive road games limped to a 4-12 record, with San Francisco earning three of those four covers during the postseason.

Don’t grow attached to one particular stat

With so many stats at your disposal, you’re bound to find numbers that either endorse or contradict a pick for any NFL game.

Any number you’re building into a game prediction has likely already been baked into the line. It won’t take you long to realize sportsbooks know what they’re doing.

One piece of advice is to have principles, but don’t get hung up on any of them.

Adaptability is crucial in sports betting. Yes, the trends mentioned above have succeeded over multiple seasons, but they could balance out at any time.

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Totals

Team totals can be your friend

In games where there appears to be a major mismatch in offensive quality, consider betting a team total instead of the game total.

A good example of this was the Buffalo Bills’ Week 4 matchup in 2021 against the Houston Texans. Davis Mills, a rookie quarterback, was making just his second start, facing a Buffalo offence that had scored 78 points over its two previous games.

The game total was set at 46.5, while the Bills’ team total sat around 31.5 points. While it seemed likely that Buffalo’s offence would pile on the points, Houston’s offence seemed destined to falter.

Mills had led the Texans to only nine points the previous week, and besting the Bills’ defence was no small feat.

Josh Allen predictably carved up the Texans in Week 4 of the 2021 season. Photo by Adrian Kraus/AP

The game played out exactly as anticipated, as Buffalo throttled Houston, 40-0. Those who bet the over on the Bills’ total were thrilled, but those who took the over for the game total came up empty.

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Unders aren’t cool, but they’re profitable

Betting overs and rooting for points might be the fun thing to do — after all, the over is never dead — but it hasn’t been profitable in recent years.

Since 2017, just eight NFL teams have a game-total over percentage greater than 50%, according to Team Rankings. That’s just 25% of the league. Offence is on the rise around the NFL, but sportsbooks have caught on.

Just a few years ago, it was rare to see a game total of 50 points or more. Nowadays, bettors might see several on any given week.

NFL betting strategies for props

Let fantasy football be your friend

If you’re an avid fantasy football player but have very little exposure to the betting world, try some player props.

There’s a huge correlation in applicable research for fantasy football and player props, which makes them a great way to acclimate to the betting world.

Jaylen Waddle had some pretty stark splits with and without DeVante Parker. Photo by Wilfredo Lee/AP.

Think about the prep you do for your fantasy team: reviewing matchups, recent player performances, injuries, etc. All of that translates to player props.

When Miami Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker was absent, his teammate Jaylen Waddle caught seven-plus passes in five of seven games. When Parker suited up, Waddle only hit the seven-catch mark in three of nine outings.

Betting the over on Waddle’s receptions prop was enticing when Parker was out, while the under was wiser with Parker healthy.

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Consider game flow

Game flow, or game script, is an important factor for prop bets such as QB passing yards. Game flow simply refers to the expectation of how a game will be played. Will it be a shootout or a defensive struggle?

One trait to consider with QB yardage props is whether a pair of top-10 passing yard leaders are in the game. If so, strongly consider taking the over on either player’s yardage. We’ve found that elite QB opposition is predictive of high-yardage totals — more so than poor defences.

Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards in 2021, and he topped 300 yards in all four matchups against fellow top-10 passers: 379 yards in Week 1 vs. the Dallas Cowboys, 432 yards in Week 3 vs. the Los Angeles Rams, 363 yards in Week 14 vs. the Bills and 329 yards vs. the Rams in the playoffs.

Advanced NFL betting strategies — Remember that Brady stat when the 2022 season gets underway. Photo by Rusty Jones/AP.

Poor quarterback opposition, meanwhile, presents an opportunity to bet the under. Brady’s five-lowest passing totals from 2021 came against the Chicago Bears (211 yards), New Orleans Saints (214), Washington Football Team (220), Indianapolis Colts (226) and Carolina Panthers (232).

The NFL is primarily a passing league, but Brady didn’t need to do as much when facing a mediocre QB.

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NFL futures betting strategies

Be conscious of divisions

More than any other sport, divisions serve an important role in shaping the NFL. Teams play six of 17 games against divisional foes, and the strength of their division can really affect win totals or Super Bowl odds.

In the case of 2021’s conference leaders, the Tennessee Titans and Packers, both teams benefitted from playing in ultra-easy divisions. Of Tennessee’s 12 wins, five came against teams in the dreadful AFC South. The four teams in that division combined for a league-low 28 wins.

The Packers, on the other hand, benefitted from a weak NFC North, which combined for a conference-worst 30 wins. Green Bay banked four victories against its divisional rivals.

Both the Packers and Titans blew past their pre-season win totals thanks to the lack of competitiveness from their respective divisions.

NFL live betting

Fade the first-drive touchdown

Coaches usually have a script of plays to use on their opening offensive drive, which is intended to provide rhythm for the offence and get a feel for the opponent’s defensive plans.

But defences make adjustments throughout a game and sometimes that makes it harder for an offence to reach the end zone again. When teams score a touchdown on the first drive, the live-betting odds are greatly affected.

The spread, moneyline and total all drastically shift, creating an opportunity to buy in at inflated odds if you’re still rooted in your pregame convictions. For more on live betting, check out some examples in our betting explainer on how to make in-game wagers.

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How to bet on the Bills: From point spreads to Josh Allen player props

It has been a long time since Bills Mafia members could feel this good about their team. Despite ending last season with a tough loss in the AFC divisional round, the Buffalo Bills are on the upswing.

Behind Josh Allen’s rocket arm, the Bills have emerged as one of the NFL’s top teams. In this guide, we’ll explain how to bet on the Bills so you’re ready for the next time they take the field.

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How to bet on the Bills

When you go to bet on the Bills, you’ll see a wide variety of betting options presented. Several factors should influence your wager, including the opponent, location, recent trends and injuries.

We’ll review the most common betting markets that are offered and share strategies for finding the best value when betting on the Bills.

Moneyline

A moneyline (ML) bet is a great way to wager on the Bills if you believe they’ll win the game outright. A successful moneyline bet on Buffalo, or any team, only requires that team to win the game. Wins in regulation or overtime — and by any margin — are applicable.

Sportsbooks will either list the Bills as a favourite or underdog in each game. The odds reflect that favourite/underdog status: a minus (-) symbol indicates Buffalo as the favourite, while a plus (+) symbol indicates an underdog.

Given their recent track record, the Bills will often be favourites. Their moneyline odds would change dramatically in a home game against the New York Jets compared to, say, the New England Patriots. Against the Jets, we’d expect the Bills to be heavier home favourites.

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-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and weekly NFL markets

On the road against a top-tier opponent, like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo will likely be the underdog. That was the case for its January 2022 playoff loss to Kansas City.

Here’s how the odds would look in each matchup:

Patriots (+195) vs. Bills (-244)
Jets (+465) vs. Bills (-675)
Bills (+110) vs. Chiefs (-130)

The odds indicate your potential return, as well as the implied probability of each team’s chance to win. Here’s how the game odds would translate if you backed Buffalo each time.

Odds	Wager	Win	Probability
-244	$244	$100	70.93%
-675	$675	$100	87.10%
+110	$100	$110	47.62%

As shown above, the Bills typically have a solid chance to win. But that doesn’t mean they’re always a strong play on the moneyline.

In the Jets example, you’d have to wager $675 on Buffalo just to win $100. While the Bills would be unlikely to lose straight up, given their 90% implied win probability, the reward may not be worth the risk for a bettor considering upsets happen all the time.

In the Patriots example, a bettor would have to wager $244 to win $100.

The Chiefs example shows what the odds were set at ahead of Buffalo’s heartbreaking loss in last year’s playoffs. Even though the Bills ultimately lost, they gave bettors strong moneyline value, with a $100 wager netting $110.

In instances like the Jets and Patriots games, where you want to back your favourite team and see a healthy return on your wager, betting the point spread is often the better option.

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Point spread betting

Unlike moneyline wagers, in which you pick a straight-up winner, point spread bets involve margins of victory and defeat. If you pick an underdog, you’ll cover if that team wins outright or loses within a specified total.

Let’s go back to the Bills/Jets scenario from above. It makes more sense to pick Buffalo against the spread (ATS) rather than on the moneyline if you think the Bills will rout the Jets.

On the moneyline, the Bills are a -675 favourite in that example. On the point spread, however, Buffalo might be favoured to win by 12.5 points (-12.5). The increased difficulty of beating a team by 13 points instead of just one point alters the odds significantly.

Most spreads are accompanied by identical odds (-110) and look like this:

Jets +12.5 (-110)
Bills -12.5 (-110)

If you select the Bills, you’ll need them to win by 13 points or more. But if you pick the Jets, they’ll need to win outright or lose by fewer than 13 points for your bet to cash.

The risk of betting the Bills here is much greater than it would be on the moneyline, but the return on your investment also takes a massive leap.

A $100 wager on a -675 moneyline would yield just $14.91. A $100 wager on a -110 point spread, on the other hand, would yield $90.91. Against an inferior Jets team, we can see how the reward of a point spread wager would be worth the risk.

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Alternative spreads

Depending on your confidence level in a point spread wager, betting on an alternative spread is also an option. In addition to the 12.5-point spread for the Bills/Jets game, sportsbooks will offer other lines on both sides of that number.

You can decide whether you want to lay more or fewer points with the Bills. The odds will expand or shrink accordingly.

When betting on football, there are key numbers such as three and seven that reflect common margins of victory. Therefore, if you want to avoid laying more than a touchdown or field goal, you can select alternative point spreads that let you do just that.

Prior to making your point spread or totals bet, check out how a team has fared historically. Many sites track ATS records and over/under totals. It doesn’t hurt to see how a team performs against the number before placing a wager.

Totals

A totals bet involves betting on the total points in a game. This may involve wagering on the cumulative score for two teams or the score for one team individually.

Totals are referred to as the over/under (or O/U). It all means the same thing.

Continuing with the Bills/Jets example, let’s say the total for this matchup is set at 43.5 points. Both over/under options typically see -110 odds, just like the point spread.

For this market, a winning bet on the over requires the teams to combine for at least 44 points. A winning bet on the under requires a combined score of 43 points or fewer.

Both teams’ totals, meanwhile, will be set at lower marks than the game total. Buffalo’s team total against the Jets could be set at 27.5. To cover the over, the Bills would need to score 28 points or more. On the other hand, Buffalo would need to score fewer than 28 points for the under to win.

You can bet on alternative totals, too.

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How to bet on Bills props

Props provide another way to play, but this betting type doesn’t involve picking the game’s winner or loser.

The prop market includes items for teams (which team will score 10 points first?) and players (will Player X score a touchdown during the game?).

Bills player props will be our focus here. Touchdown scorers are common player props and there are several variations at a bettor’s disposal.

If you don’t want to bet on the outcome of a Bills game, you can turn to the prop market instead. Photo by Ed Zurga/AP.

The typical touchdown markets are for a player to score the first touchdown of a game, the last touchdown, or a touchdown anytime. Considering there’s only one first touchdown of a football game and one last touchdown, the odds in those markets typically provide huge payouts.

For a player like Josh Allen, the Bills’ star QB, touchdown scorer odds may look like this:

First touchdown (+1,000): A $100 bet would win $1,000.
Last touchdown (+1,000): A $100 bet would win $1,000.
Anytime touchdown (+140): A $100 bet would win $140.

In addition to touchdowns, player yards are another prop option bettors can wager on.

Sticking with Allen, you can wager on whether the QB will go over or under his passing yardage total for any contest. If Allen’s receiving total was set at 239.5 yards, a successful bet on the over would require Allen to throw for 240 yards or more. Any total below that amount would be a win for the under.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers to passing yards and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers to passing yards and much more

Additionally, you can wager on running back and wide receiver props.

If the Bills host a team with a banged-up secondary, you may expect Allen to torch his opponent downfield. As a result, taking the over on the longest completion prop might be wise.

The odds on the over/under player totals may vary, featuring more juice on one of the options.

Parlays and specials

Some sportsbooks will also offer the option of betting on specials. A special may be built around one player or a number of outcomes that essentially make it a pre-built, same-game parlay.

An example of a commonly found special in football betting is a scorecast. A scorecast allows you to wager on which player will score a touchdown first in addition to wagering on the winning margin for a game.

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Similarly, you can create an anytime scorecast in order to combine an anytime touchdown bet with the winning margin of the contest.

Suppose you bet on Dawson Knox to score a touchdown and the Bills to win by one-to-six points. For this anytime scorecast, the odds could be set at +900, which means a $100 wager would yield a $900 profit. If Knox failed to score a touchdown or the Bills didn’t win within the specified margin, however, the bet wouldn’t cash.

There are many other ways to bet on the Bills. Parlays and futures, as well as live betting, are among the additional popular NFL betting markets.

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How to live bet and make in-game wagers

Whether you are betting on the moneyline or the point spread, there are many markets to choose from before a game starts.

While pregame wagering is the most common way to bet on a sporting event, these markets — including totals and player props — largely remain open once the actual contest begins. This gives you the opportunity to place live bets. It ensures you still have a chance to wager if you didn’t get your bets in before puck drop or first pitch.

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In-game betting allows you to react to an event as it unfolds in real-time and make wagers on many of the same markets you’d be able to access pregame.

How to live bet

While odds change before a game for a number of reasons, including player availability, the odds change at a rapid pace once the contest begins.

The score and game situation will constantly alter the moneyline, point spread and O/U. A low-scoring first quarter will drop the total over/under for a basketball game.

A pregame favourite falling behind early could not only make it an underdog on the moneyline, but it would also impact the point spread in football as well.

Let’s say that the Buffalo Bills entered as 3.5-point favourites against the Dallas Cowboys but found themselves trailing 10-0 after the first quarter. Dallas would likely then become the favourite and Buffalo would enter the second quarter as a live underdog. The spread might change to something like Buffalo +3.5.

What does that mean? Well, if you wagered on the Bills at -3.5 pregame it means that they would have to win by four-plus points for you to win your bet. If you made an in-game bet and backed them at +3.5, they could lose by three points or fewer or win outright for your bet to cash.

But as quickly as a favourite can become an underdog once the game is underway, it can just as easily alter the lines again with a big run or score.

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In-game betting markets

While the moneyline, over/under and spread are the biggest in-game betting markets, some sportsbooks allow you to make player prop bets after the start of a contest. Like other markets, the prop odds will change depending on performance throughout the game.

For example: The pregame odds for Connor McDavid to score a goal may be -110. But that could move to +190 if he went scoreless after the first period. Why would you make this bet after the first? Because of the value.

The trade-off is this: Excluding overtime, you would now only have two periods for McDavid to cash your bet. But at +190, it means you would win $190 on a $100 bet if he scored. The same pregame stake at -110 odds would return a profit of $90.91.

The same live betting scenarios apply across other sports.

Patrick Mahomes’ yards thrown prop and DeMar DeRozan’s points prop will change in real-time depending on their performance. The total they’d have to reach, presented as an over/under, could increase or decrease a number of times throughout the game based on their statistics.

If DeRozan scored 15 first-quarter points, his live point prop could jump to 35.5 from 27.5 pregame. The same idea would apply to Mahomes.

You can also make in-game parlay bets as well.

For instance, if three pregame MLB favourites were losing in the sixth inning and you still liked their chances of winning, you could create a single ticket where you picked all of them to win on the moneyline.

Because of how constant the in-game odds change, it’s important to practice discipline when wagering. Pay close attention to this market and the game you are betting on.

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Key NBA betting strategies you should know

The NBA is one of the most popular sports to wager on but it can be difficult for newcomers.

You never want to blindly bet on a game, so familiarizing yourself with the best strategies and stats for NBA betting is a good way to dip your toes into the water.

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That’s what we’ll do here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next basketball bet.

NBA betting strategies

There are many different markets to choose from when betting on the NBA. In a league that consists of 30 teams and hundreds of players, there’s an endless amount of possible betting combinations any day there’s action.

For an in-depth analysis of how these markets operate, check out our NBA betting guide.

In this piece, we’ll be looking at betting strategies for NBA point spreads, moneylines, totals and props.

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Moneyline and ATS betting

Ride the hot hand

Bet on teams that are playing well. The NBA is a league of streaks. This can be driven by individual player performance and injuries, but as a whole, teams can go cold or catch fire at any given moment.

Sometimes it takes operators a while to catch up to hot teams, and you can often find advantageous lines as a result.

Take a look at how teams are performing in their last five games — both offensively and defensively —before you make any bets.

Health is wealth

Teams need their star players to compete. When a key player goes down with an injury the wheels can completely fall off any squad.

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Let’s use Luka Doncic as an example. In the 12 games played without Doncic last season, the Dallas Mavericks had a 4-8 record. When Luka did play last year, the Mavs went 46-24.

When an entire offence revolves around a player and that player gets hurt, that team will always face a substantial drop-off in production.

*Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best young players in the league.* *Photo by Nate Billings/AP.*

Even teams without bonafide superstars rely on healthy rosters for success. Scottie Barnes missed 22 games last year with an injury. Just one injury to a young core player impacted their success and led to a 25-57 record.

These statistics demonstrate why our next point — patience — is so important.

Patience is a virtue

One of the biggest problems plaguing the NBA from a viewership standpoint is load management. Players are often listed as questionable throughout the day and only hours before tip-off is their status revealed.

This can drastically swing betting lines and is an important factor to consider when placing bets.

Be patient and don’t rush to bet on games before you are aware of who will, or won’t, be playing.

While star players missing games can be frustrating for the viewer, it can be used to a bettor’s advantage. Keep a close eye on beat reporters and insiders to see how players are being rested and how injuries are progressing.

Let’s assume the Milwaukee Bucks are 4.5-point favourites at home against the Denver Nuggets. You already like the line to begin with and are leaning toward betting on the Bucks.

If Nikola Jokic is listed as a game-time decision and you see his status change to out, the line of -4.5 becomes far more valuable. Of course, the books will try to rectify this as quickly as possible, but there are windows of opportunity to sneak a bet in.

When the line re-opens it could have the Bucks listed as an 8.5-point favourite or higher, which is still a solid play as the Nuggets would now be without the 2020-21 MVP.

Rest versus rust

This adage is typically reserved for playoff matchups but holds a lot of water when applied to regular-season betting.

When betting on a game, look to see if one of the teams is playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Certain squads are better at this than others.

For example, from 2023-2024 the Los Angeles Lakers were 4-11 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Boston Celtics, meanwhile, had an impressive 10-4 ATS record on no rest. If L.A. and Boston were playing and both were on a back-to-back, it would have been advantageous to back the Celtics in this position.

Good teams don’t always cover

While it’s important to bet on streaking teams in the NBA, there can be outliers when it comes to covering the spread. Just because a team is winning lots of games doesn’t necessarily mean it will cover the spread.

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It’s a common mistake to see a team with a good record and assume it will cover. Make sure to take a closer look at ATS stats before placing a wager.

*The Dallas Mavericks have proven to be a good bet in recent seasons. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.*

The San Antonio Spurs were a strong 44-38 ATS from 2023-2024 but had a record of 22-60.

As the famous saying goes: Good teams win, great teams cover. The Dallas Mavericks won 61% of their games over that span, while also covering 59% of the time — that’s a great team.

NBA betting strategies for totals

Push the pace (efficiently)

Two of my favourite stats for betting totals revolve around pace factor and offensive efficiency — the number of possessions a team uses per game and the number of points scored per 100 possessions. More possessions generally lead to more points scored, which is why this stat lends itself so strongly to totals.

Betting on the under isn’t necessarily fun but can certainly be profitable. If you see a team with bad shooting efficiencies and a slow pace, start taking the under.

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Team Totals

When betting totals in the NBA, it’s generally true that both teams must play well for the over to hit. That’s why there are situations where betting a team total is a better play than the game total.

Let’s say the Utah Jazz are playing the Portland Trail Blazers and the over is set at 219.5 points. If the Jazz blowout the Trail Blazers 123-90 then the over is a loser.

Betting on just Utah to cover a team total of 115.5 points would have won.

Some teams are buoys while others are cinderblocks when it comes to totals — try to find out which teams belong to which category. Many sites track a team’s over/under record and that’s something you should pay attention to.

NBA betting strategies for props

Expose uneven matchups in props

Prop betting can be one of the most fun and profitable ways to bet on the NBA. Look for uneven matchups when placing prop bets.

Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in rebounds per game during the 2023-2024 season. The Charlotte Hornets averaged 40.2 rebounds per game that season, the fewest in the league. If Sabonis was lined up against the Hornets, this would be a good opportunity to bet him to go over his rebounding total.

*Domantas Sabonis is one of the best rebounders in the NBA. Photo by Randall Benton/AP.*

If you want to bet a player’s points prop, look for matchups against teams with bottom-tier defensive efficiencies.

The same applies to other prop bets, like 3-pointers made. If a good 3-point shooter is facing a team that struggles to contain the long ball, it presents a good opportunity to bet the over on his prop. The same logic applies to under bets as well.

Don’t be afraid to bet the under if all the evidence points to a tough matchup.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

Player prop ladders

Let’s say there’s a prop you really like. It could be advantageous to layer bets on alternate lines. This is known as a prop ladder. If a player averaged four assists per game but went on a hot streak averaging 9.5 assists over their last three contests, their assist prop could lag behind at an over/under of 4.5.

If you were confident the player was going to continue this streak, start by safely betting the line at over 4.5 (-115) then incrementally lower your stake while taking him to make six, seven, or eight assists. It could look like this:

Over 4.5 assists (-115), over 5.5 assists (+175), over 6.5 assists (+290), over 7.5 assists (+430), over 8.5 assists (+740).

Similarly, players like Jalen Brunson or Jayson Tatum can turn into total flamethrowers. Both usually have their 3-point prop line set at 3.5. If you think they’re going to go off, it could be smart to layer their 3-pointers made prop at over 3.5 (-120), over 4.5 (+190) and over 5.5 (+350).

Layering props can be very effective when injuries come into play. If Julius Randle was out, Brunson has a better chance of hitting more 3-pointers. If Giannis Antetokounmpo is out, there will be more rebounds available for Brook Lopez.

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Key MLB betting strategies you should know

Research has its place in all forms of sports betting, but baseball’s setup is unique. Throughout a six-month campaign, extensive sample sizes and opportunities for emerging trends can really assist your wagering decisions.

If you’re looking for insights related to game results, props, futures and more, our MLB betting strategies guide will arm you with the information you need before placing your next wager.

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MLB betting strategies

Thanks to the mainstream embrace of sabermetrics, MLB generates more publicly available data than any other sport. Acronyms like WAR, FIP and wRC+ fill digital stat sheets. Spin rates, exit velocities and launch angles tell another story altogether.

To avoid information overload, you might want to focus on just a couple of research techniques and tactics. We’ll provide a thorough review of different betting strategies.

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Moneyline and run line strategies

Who’s the starting pitcher?

Much like goalies in hockey, starting pitchers in baseball wield a great deal of influence in betting odds. That’s because starters are expected to cover more than half the innings in a game and they possess the opportunity to shut down the opposition.

When considering how a starting pitcher will affect a particular game, ask yourself a couple of key things: How has he performed in recent starts? Has he recently dealt with any injuries? Is the lineup he’s facing fully healthy?

In 2023, the Atlanta Braves went 26-6 when Spencer Strider was on the mound. Photo by John Bazemore/AP.

You can check out the “listed pitcher” markets in each of the MLB matchup pages at NorthStar Bets to see the probable starters of the day.

If a pitching matchup looks particularly lopsided, you may prefer to bet on the game’s first five innings (all but ensuring bullpens won’t be involved). Bettors can find moneyline, run line and totals markets for this shortened portion of the game.

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Keep in mind that an influx of openers — who only work the first inning or two — has altered the role of some starting pitchers. If you don’t know who’s throwing the majority of the game’s innings, betting on a game becomes more difficult.

Some teams who use openers will announce their long-relief pitcher for the day. Some, frustratingly, will not. Review that team’s bullpen stats to gain a sense of how it might fare on the pitching side.

Who’s in the lineup?

Injuries are a crucial factor for any sports wager. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending injury in 2024 affected the Atlanta Braves’ futures markets, and we see the same type of influence in game-to-game odds.

If a star like Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went on the injured list, the ramifications would be felt across a number of betting markets.

A weakened Blue Jays team may see its team total set at a lower number because its offence would be more likely to stall as a result of Vladdy’s absence.

Hot and cold streaks

Ups and downs are inevitable in baseball. As we know, even the league’s top players fail at the plate well over half the time. On the team level, facing the same opponent in bunches can lead to excellent or unsightly streaks, too.

When a team is on an offensive heater, watch out. During the Blue Jays’ 12-1 stretch at the start of September 2021, they slashed .331/.410/.636 as a team. That’s MVP-calibre hitting, as a collective, for nearly two weeks.

Immediately after that tear, however, the Blue Jays went on a 6-7 slide with a .209/.274/.373 slash line. That’s a borderline replacement-level player, and hardly recognizable from the group we just described.

If a team’s bats start scorching, jump on the moneyline train. Just know that a derailment is possible at any time.

MLB totals

Where’s the star power?

On both sides of the ball, star players will most likely shape the outcome of a game. When it comes to totals betting, a stud pitcher can keep the lid on a matchup, while a couple of sluggers can break it open.

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ run-scoring potential, with a lineup littered with all-stars and MVPs, is mesmerizing. The Dodgers have enough skill and depth to go over on a game total all by themselves.

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But starting pitchers can make a world of difference, too.

When guys like Gerrit Cole, Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale are on the hill, you should think twice about taking the over, no matter what offence lies on the other side.

It’d be nice if high-scoring offences always succeeded in surpassing run totals, but the formula is more complex than that.

*Aces, like Cole, can silence any lineup. Photo by John Minchillo/AP.*

Bolstered by a pair of MVP finalists, the Blue Jays scored 846 runs in 2021 (third in MLB). But their games only hit the over at a 45.1% rate, which was 27th in the majors. How could that be?

For one thing, the Blue Jays only accounted for half of the offensive innings in their baseball games. They can only do so much on their own.

Secondly, Toronto’s high-powered offence frequently inspired inflated run total projections.

Toronto saw a double-digit run total in 38 of its games in 2021, according to TeamRankings. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who led MLB with a 57.4% over rate, only saw a double-digit run total 14 times.

If you’re only bullish about one side’s offence in a particular game, you can bet on that team’s run total alone.

MLB betting strategies for props

Who’s hot and who’s not?

We’ve spoken about streakiness already, but allow us to repeat for emphasis. When you see a player on a massive 0-for streak, or you see them crushing everything, ride that wave on prop markets.

Shortly after being traded to the Dodgers in 2021, Trea Turner became one of baseball’s hottest hitters.

–> Check out the latest player props each week at NorthStar Bets – from home run hitters to pitcher strikeouts and more

-> Check out the latest player props each week at NorthStar Bets – from home run hitters to pitcher strikeouts and more

In mid-August of that year, he registered five multi-hit performances in a six-game span. Not long after that, he notched separate 16-game and 19-game hitting streaks. Put your faith in players like that until they give you a reason not to.

Ballpark factors

As with anytime touchdown or goalscorer props in other sports, home run props may be particularly enticing to some baseball bettors. These are tricky, given that even the best hitters only go yard in 25-30% of games, but finding a homer-friendly ballpark helps.

Using Statcat’s park factors, we know the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers’ home stadiums have yielded the most home runs over the past three years.

On the opposite end, the stingiest parks belong to the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics.

Based on wall distances and dimensions, some ballparks are great for extra-base hits — just not homers. In Boston, the Green Monster at Fenway Park has led to an MLB-high doubles rate but a below-average homer rate.

MLB futures betting strategies

How to interpret expected stats

Batted ball and pitch-tracking data create a treasure trove of expected stats for bettors to explore. But don’t get carried away. What should happen, based on exit velocity, launch angle and other metrics, is not always what comes to be.

Still, expected stats can help us identify busts and bounce-back candidates. Few players represent this notion better than former Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes (now with the Baltimore Orioles).

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In 2019, Burnes had an 8.82 ERA while allowing a .417 wOBA, which is a similar stat to on-base percentage but weighted by how a player gets on base.

According to Statcast’s expected metrics, Burnes was one of baseball’s top-five unluckiest pitchers in both categories.

Sure enough, he dominated during the shortened 2020 season before winning National League Cy Young honours in 2021. In essence, Burnes’ actual stats caught up to (and surpassed) his expected ones.

On a team level, Baseball Reference’s catch-all luck stat is the Pythagorean record, which estimates winning percentage based on run differential.

The Blue Jays’ 183-run differential in 2021 netted a 99-63 Pythagorean record, good for fifth in the majors. But some poor luck, among other factors, led to an actual record of 91-71 — just outside the playoff picture.

Given each team’s roster turnover from one year to the next, Pythagorean records are likely most helpful in the context of each season individually.

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Key NHL betting strategies you should know

Betting on hockey can be tricky for someone who doesn’t have experience with the sport. But identifying a few key NHL betting strategies can make a world of difference.

There are 32 teams, hundreds of players and an endless amount of possible betting combinations any day there’s action. A look at the NHL odds board on a busy Saturday night may feel overwhelming to those new to the space.

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That’s why we’re here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next hockey bet.

NHL betting strategies

There are several elements to consider before handing over your money for an NHL wager. And the market you intend to bet on will affect what type of research you should conduct.

We’ll review the most popular betting markets and share some important tips so you’re more prepared when considering what event to spend your money on.

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Moneyline and puck line strategies

Who’s the goalie?

We can’t stress this point enough, but a good — or hot — goaltender can make all the difference. Goalies steal games all the time, as every hockey fan can attest. Monitoring roster announcements and viewing recent goalie matchups is vitally important to a bet.

Despite every bettor wishing NHL teams disclosed starting goalie information hours in advance, most teams often don’t. Instead, head coaches keep this decision confidential until shortly before puck drop to create a competitive advantage.

Beat reporters typically tweet info gathered throughout the day, such as which goalie exited the morning skate first or who’s practicing in the starter’s net. This is often the best way to scope out the info.

*The New York Rangers are a significantly better team with Igor Shesterkin between the pipes. Photo by Frank Franklin II/AP.*

Knowing who the starting goalies are is must-know information. The difference in quality between a starting goalie and a third-stringer can be the difference in a team being labelled as a favourite or underdog.

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Who’s playing?

Injuries impact the odds of all hockey games. When one or more top players are missing from a team, its chance of winning is negatively impacted, at least in theory.

For example, the Edmonton Oilers were 20-26-10 (.367 win percentage) without Connor McDavid through the end of the 2023-24 season, according to StatMuse. In the same span, the Oilers were 349-242-54 (.541).

If McDavid is slated to miss an upcoming game, betting against the Oilers could be a smart play.

What have you done for me lately?

The NHL schedule is compact, and teams don’t have much time between games to resolve issues. If a flaw is exposed or a team is struggling on special teams, those issues may persist for a string of games.

The Philadelphia Flyers provided an extreme example of this in January 2022. During a horrific 13-game losing streak that lasted nearly the full month, Philly was the only team to rank bottom-five in both power play and penalty kill percentage.

On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a top-10 power play and penalty kill during a 10-game winning streak that same season.

Recent overall results are important to look at, but reviewing a club’s performance on special teams helps take things a step further. A particularly hot or cold power play or penalty kill could create an edge.

How to attack back-to-backs?

The schedule creates competitive advantages and disadvantages for NHL teams. In some cases, a team will play two games in as many nights, or three contests in four days. Fatigue may become a factor, which is usually incorporated into the odds.

A resource like the one provided by More Hockey Stats helps quantify the true disadvantage a team has playing in a back-to-back game.

Naturally, some teams handle the challenge better than others. Using this tool, you can determine when there’s a good opportunity to attack a team playing a game in consecutive nights.

NHL totals

Show me the goals

Totals don’t have to be complicated. Teams that typically score a lot of goals tend to go over, while teams that don’t allow or score a lot of goals tend to go under.

For example, the Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Minnesota Wild were three of the highest-scoring teams in the league in the 2021-22 season. It’s no coincidence that all three squads were among the top overs teams in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds.

NHL advanced strategies statd — *The Florida Panthers possess one of the most lethal offences in the NHL. Photo by Lynne Sladky/AP.*

When looking at under bets, it’s wise to target teams that don’t allow many goals.

The New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes own some of the lowest goals-against rates this season. Unsurprisingly, they were among the top unders teams in the NHL.

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NHL betting strategies for props

The streakier the better

Outside of the top goalscorers in the NHL, it’s hard to truly rely on anyone to score goals routinely. Sure, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon are going to score goals by the boatload, but how do you hit on players who have longer odds?

One thing to know about NHL players is that they tend to score in bunches. Take Kevin Fiala, for example. Of the winger’s first 20 goals in the 2021-22 season, eight came in a 10-game span from late December to the end of January.

What makes Fiala a great example to follow is his shooting percentage. Prior to that scoring outburst, the Swiss star had potted just four goals on an unsustainably low 4.3% shooting percentage, according to Hockey Reference.

When Fiala scored two goals against the Dallas Stars on Dec. 20, 2021, the games following that performance would’ve been the best time to start betting his goal prop.

Shooting percentages tend to hold fairly steady on a year-to-year basis, and a quick look at his career rate would’ve suggested a correction was coming. Entering the 2021-22 season, Fiala owned an 11.0% shooting percentage, which tells us that his 4.3% mark wasn’t destined to last much longer.

Knowing that goal scoring can be streaky and that shooting percentages don’t normally undergo mass fluctuations, it would’ve been wise to jump on Fiala’s goal props at the first sign of a breakthrough.

The Fiala example is applicable to other steady shooters who possess uncharacteristically low shooting percentages.

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-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

Who are you playing with?

When looking at assist or point props, target players who play alongside elite talents. One such example is Jonathan Drouin.

Although Drouin isn’t a bad player in his own right, he undoubtedly benefits from playing alongside MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Knowing that he skates next to two of the best players in the league, Drouin becomes a much more attractive bet on all his player props.

The best market to take advantage of Drouin’s position in the lineup is his points prop.

*Jonathan Drouin had a career-high 56 points in 2023-24, which was his first season skating alongside former QMJHL teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Photo by Stacy Bengs/AP.*

MacKinnon and Rantanen are sometimes listed with a line of 1.5 points, while Drouin is typically listed at 0.5 points. If you think MacKinnon or Rantanen will reach the stat sheet at least once, there’s a decent possibility their linemate will, too.

With this in mind, it may be wiser to take Drouin at his prop than MacKinnon or Rantanen considering the correlation between the pair’s production.

NHL live betting

Underdogs and overs

If you made a story of my life regarding NHL betting strategies, a good title would be, “Underdogs and Overs.” Aside from being the name of my biopic that’ll never be made, it’s a good mantra for live betting totals.

When betting overs, typically you want to back teams that feature high-powered offences. The issue that sometimes arises in their games, however, is their opponent can’t keep up. In these instances, sometimes you lose your bet because the final score is 4-1 or 5-1 when the total is 5.5 or 6.5 goals.

Live betting allows you to see how the game plays out in order to react to it in real time.

For example, let’s say the Panthers and their highly skilled offence are playing against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks score the game’s only goal through the first 15 minutes, which bumps the total down from 6.5 to 5.5 goals.

Once this happens, bettors should look to back the over for two reasons.

A 5.5-goal line in a game involving Florida, one of the league’s highest-scoring teams, is great value. Additionally, San Jose’s early marker was a positive indicator to suggest it could score enough to push this game over.

The Panthers’ slow start shouldn’t deter bettors because they score a lot of goals. The Sharks are the less reliable side, but an early goal from them as underdogs is a great development for an over.

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NHL futures betting strategy

Think about divisions

Playoff seeding for the NHL is based on divisional ranking. The top seed in each division plays a wild-card team, while the second and third seeds square off in the quarterfinals.

This setup can be advantageous when placing a Stanley Cup futures bet.

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The Pacific Division was billed as the weakest at the beginning of the 2021-22 season. It lived up to that title, with the Calgary Flames emerging as runaway favourites from the bunch. The lack of elite competition in the Pacific actually made Calgary a value pick to win the Stanley Cup.

Sometimes, as many as four teams in a different division will have shorter odds than the leaders of a weak division.

But Calgary’s chances of advancing beyond the quarterfinals should be viewed as greater than any of the teams within a deeper division (as the Atlantic has been in recent years).

Despite the Flames’ lower implied probability of winning the Stanley Cup, they possess much more value on futures markets than the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Panthers.

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Key golf betting strategies you should know

Anyone who has played golf will tell you it’s a fickle sport. Betting is no different — anything can happen on any given day.

Without the proper knowledge, it can be tough to get a handle on how to bet on golf. Going into a tournament and betting blindly isn’t the way to go. Simply picking your favourite golfers isn’t the smartest way to wager, either.

Luckily, there are strategies that you can follow to make better golf bets. Let’s take a look.

Golf betting strategies

Every golf event has a number of markets that are available to bet on. Each will be influenced by several factors that include weather, player form and course fit, among other things. Identifying the significance of these factors is important when deciding the best way to place your wager.

We already established our basics of how to bet on golf, now let’s move on to some more intricate strategies and statistics, starting with strokes gained.

What is strokes gained?

Strokes gained is a way of analyzing how a golfer is playing relative to the rest of the field.

A player’s total SG is a combination of five categories: putting, around the green, approach, off the tee, and tee to green. When looking at strokes gained, it’s always framed within a certain data set.

You can analyze strokes gained at a particular course or over a certain period of time, but it’s always relative to the golfer’s competition.

Throughout this piece, we will be referencing SG stats provided by Data Golf.

Ride the hot hand

A player’s swing can come and go at any given moment. Riding the hot hand is imperative in golf betting and is perhaps the most important factor when wagering on any market. A player can be a perfect fit for a course, but if they have the yips it doesn’t matter.

Let’s use Jordan Spieth as an example. The Texas native stormed onto the PGA Tour in 2013, winning 11 tournaments in four years, including four majors. He had 47 top-five finishes in 152 starts (30.92%) and then went ice cold.

Spieth only had one top-five finish in 41 starts (2.43%) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

*Jordan Spieth has shown flashes of being really hot but also really cold. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.*

In 2021, Spieth found his game. He had seven top-five finishes in 28 starts and a victory at the Valero Texas Open (his first win since 2017).

Finding players who are running hot is essential to success. A one-off poor performance can be discarded, but check on how a player has performed over their last 10 events or so.

Each-way betting

Each-way (E/W) betting is a way to pick a player to win outright, while also getting a strong return if they finish in the top five. This is a great way to uncover value when you find a golfer who’s on a hot streak.

An each-way ticket would look like this:

Jordan Spieth E/W 1/4 5 places +2,000.

Those odds tell us that Spieth is +2,000, meaning a $100 outright bet would net $2,000 profit if he won. He only won once in 2021 while recording seven top-five finishes. That’s why each way has you covered. A $100 E/W stake is essentially two $50 bets — one at +2,000 and one at +500 (1/4 of +2,000).

If Spieth won the event, both portions of the E/W bet would cash, netting you $1,250 profit ($1,000 from the outright bet at +2,000 and $250 from the top-five finish at +500). If he came third, you would only win the top-five portion of the bet ($50 at +500 for $250 profit).

Top Finishes

The same concept applies to top finishes. Top 20 is a common betting market that often provides odds with a reasonable ROI even for top-end talent. Sticking with Spieth, he finished in the top 20, from 2017-19, 73.9% of the time. That number dropped to just 26% from 2019-20.

Who’s hot and cold is constantly evolving, so keep an eye on all players to find undervalued golfers who can provide a great return on an E/W or top-20 bet.

There are opportunities to find under-the-radar players sitting around +7,500 odds. For players with longer odds, you don’t necessarily have to bet on an E/W finish. Top 10 and top-20 finishes would still provide great ROIs and are a safer alternative.

Course history

One of the most beautiful things about golf is that every course is different. Each venue presents its own quirks and challenges — it’s the job of the golfer to figure out how to analyze and dissect these nuances. It’s the job of the bettor to find who does that best.

When looking to bet on golf outrights, top finishes, matchups and so on, it’s imperative to pick a golfer that performs well at the course. Tiger Woods won eight times each at Firestone, Torrey Pines and Bay Hill.

Data Golf has a comprehensive course history tool that indicates a player’s SG at any given course and the number of rounds they played.

*Tiger dominates certain courses better than others. Photo by Scott Audette/AP.*

For example, at Bay Hill, Tiger played 40 rounds with an SG of +2.72, meaning every round he was gaining an average of 2.72 strokes on the field.

Another example is Jon Rahm at Torrey Pines, where he boasts an average +2.46 SG in 22 rounds played. He has finished top 10 in his last five starts with one win (2021 U.S. Open).

Knowing Rahm’s course history, he would be a solid choice whenever an event is held there.

Golf betting strategies: Course fit

Course history is important, but sometimes there isn’t a sufficient data set to back up your prediction. Maybe a player you’re keen on betting is a rookie. The course could be a new addition to the tour or perhaps it’s an uncommon major venue.

Search up the course and see how it’s composed. What’s the yardage? How many par-5s are there? Can you drive without care or are there a lot of hazards? These are all important questions to ask. Familiarize yourself with the course and try to pick players you envision succeeding there.

If the course is 7,900 yards long with little danger, someone like Bryson DeChambeau could be a good choice. If the course requires precision accuracy from tee to green, on the other hand, then a pure ball-striker like Collin Morikawa may be a solid decision.

You can use course stats to weed out players as well. Joel Dahmen was 173rd in par-5 scoring in 2021 — if the course has an abundance of par 5s, try and avoid players like him.

Weather and live betting

Golf conditions get crazy sometimes, which allows bettors to capitalize on an opportunity.

Let’s say the course is wet following a rain delay. Drives don’t go as far, approach shots stay closer to where they land, and it’s far easier to putt. These kinds of conditions would favour ball strikers who are extremely accurate.

Look at Hideki Matsuyama’s 2021 Masters win — specifically, his moving day performance.

After a 77-minute weather delay, Matsuyama was two strokes off the lead through 10 holes while being -1 on the day. The course was soaked and he was one of the last groups out there.

*Certain conditions favour certain golfers and that can be important when live betting. Photo by John Minchillo/AP.*

Over the past two years, Matsuyama has the eighth-best SG approach (+0.80) while being 139th in SG putting (-0.33). These conditions favoured his game. He went -6 through the final eight holes and ended the day with a four-shot lead, going on to win the tournament.

When inclement weather disrupts a tournament, try to analyze who this would benefit and see if there is any value on outright winners or end-of-round leaders.

Golf betting strategies: Majors

The PGA season revolves around four main events: The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open and Open Championship. This is also where fans will find the most betting action.

Some players rise to the occasion, while others collapse. Someone who succeeds at regular tour events could develop struggles at majors.

Justin Thomas has picked up nine tour wins since winning the 2017 PGA Championship, but his major record has been less than stellar. He has three top 10s, one top-five finish and three missed cuts. In 2021, his best finish was T-19 at the U.S. Open.

While he may be considered a favourite to win at a major, there isn’t much value due to his recent form at the big events.

Brooks Koepka, on the other hand, is notorious for showing up at majors. He has won four times since 2017 while finishing top five in 53% of those tournaments.

Louis Oosthuizen has four top-five finishes in his last seven major starts (3rd, T2, 2nd, T3). He hasn’t missed a cut since the 2017 Open Championship.

Finding players like Koepka and Oosthuizen, who provide consistent results, is a key golf betting strategy when wagering on majors.

How to handicap weather in NFL betting

How to handicap weather in NFL and MLB betting

It’s not uncommon for bettors to have a process when it comes to wagering on sports. Unfortunately, even the best processes can be rendered useless due to a bout of bad weather. Sometimes overlooked, the weather can make it difficult to determine how to handicap NFL betting.

Of course, sports like the NHL and NBA don’t have to worry about bad conditions because they’re played in arenas. But at certain NFL venues, the elements can loom large over a game. Wind, snow, and rain can all impact the outcome of an event.

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In this guide, we’ll explain the ways weather can affect a game, and how to handicap weather in NFL betting.

How to handicap wind in NFL betting

When betting on the NFL, weather can severely alter a number of markets, but specifically game and team totals. Wind can really derail a team’s passing attack, and therefore, cause a lower-scoring game.

There was no better example of this during the 2021 NFL season than the Buffalo Bills’ Monday Night Football contest against the New England Patriots. The two AFC East rivals met on Dec. 6 with the top spot in the division on the line. The Bills’ home venue, Highmark Stadium, is an open-roof facility which meant the 40-50 mph winds swirling around Buffalo that evening would impact the game.

And indeed it did. New England won the contest 14-10 while attempting just three passes with Mac Jones.

What allowed fans to see the true effect weather had on this game was the following two matchups between these two squads. Across the final two games, which were played in relatively normal conditions, Buffalo outscored New England 80-36 and won both contests.

What this game revealed was that wind’s largest impact is its ability to disrupt the passing attack. As mentioned above, Jones only threw three passes while Josh Allen’s 145 passing yards were his second-lowest total of the year. “Wind games” could present an opportunity to fade the better passing attack or back the stronger rushing game. Additionally, what this instance taught us about how to handicap weather in NFL betting, is that a game with a lot of gust can be a potential smash spot for a bet to the under.

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Rain in NFL betting

In most instances, heavy rain has the same effect on a football game that wind does.

Like the wind, lots of rain can make it difficult for teams to move the ball through the air. Slippery field conditions and a wet ball can make it very hard for wide receivers to get open and catch the football.

A recent example of a game played with extreme rain was the San Francisco 49ers’ Week 7 matchup against Washington in 2019. In the contest, the two teams combined for just 196 passing yards and zero offensive touchdowns. San Francisco won the game 9-0 thanks to three Robbie Gould field goals.

The results of this game, and a number of other severe rain games, suggest that like wind games, rain creates an adverse environment for offence. With that in mind, unders are seemingly the play in games where rain will be prevalent.

How to handicap snow in NFL betting

Like rain, snow can be problematic for offensive attacks, but for different reasons. Snow can sometimes create a slick field, but with heavy snowfall, the ground can become tough to trudge through. Additionally, snow can hinder visibility, and therefore make it difficult to accurately pass the ball and see it through for a reception.

A great example of how snow can dampen an offense’s outlook is the ‘Snowvertime’ game played between the Bills and Indianapolis Colts in Week 14 of 2017. After 60 minutes, the game sat tied at 7-7, prompting overtime. With under two minutes remaining, Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy kicked through the snow en route to the game-winning touchdown.

Similar to the other examples listed above, Buffalo’s win was a low-scoring affair. McCoy’s touchdown sealed a 13-7 win for the Bills. Like the other games, too, the passing attacks were extremely ineffective. The two sides combined for a measly 156 passing yards.

One lesson we can extrapolate from this game is that passing can be extremely difficult in snow. It’s hard for wide receivers to get separation, and even tougher for passers to spot the open receiver. Consequently, the better run game may be the lean in these scenarios. Also, like the above instances, this game wound up being a low-scoring affair. The two squads combined for just 20 points, so in cases where there is an extreme amount of snow, the under may be the play.

Warning

One piece of advice that’s really worth emphasizing with NFL betting is only let the weather impact your decision making under fairly extreme circumstances. Heavy snow and rainfall is worth adjusting your process for, but light showers or light snow aren’t worth overreacting to. Contrarily, once winds reach speeds of greater than 14 mph, there tends to be a quantifiable affect on scoring, according to Safe Betting Sites.

While the weather will certainly impact your NFL bets, there are a number of other factors you should consider. Click here to review our NFL advanced stats and strategy guide.

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