On Monday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals in a game with tons of scoring potential.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup at Jerry World has a 53.5-point projected total. Overs are 6-2 in Cowboys games this year, with each of their past four matchups clearing this number.
Check out our top Cardinals vs. Cowboys MNF TD picks, featuring Jake Ferguson and Zonovan “Bam” Knight.
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Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks: Week 9
Best bet: Knight to score a TD (+105)
This could be Knight’s last opportunity as a starting tailback for the foreseeable future, and I expect him to make the most of it.
Dallas has played some truly terrible football on the defensive side of things, ranking 31st in both points and yards allowed.
The Cowboys’ defence is also 30th in EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
-> Bet on Zonovan Knight to score on Monday Night Football
It’s a smash matchup, and Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon has already confirmed that Knight will get the start for Arizona.
Knight isn’t guaranteed to dominate touches for Arizona. But neither of his counterparts, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter, should be much of a concern.
- Carter was the first depth chart RB to get a start when Trey Benson and James Conner were sidelined. But in Carter’s second start, in Week 6, he rushed just nine times. Knight rushed 11 times in that game and out-touched him last matchup, too.
- Demercado made the grave mistake of dropping the ball at the one-yard line on what would’ve been a 72-yard touchdown in Week 5. He’s only had one carry since then and is coming off an ankle injury.
Knight has scored in two of three games in which he’s taken offensive snaps. His red zone usage has been great, and the Cowboys have a tough time stopping anyone.
Treat Knight as a high-value prop play on MNF.
Key stat: Knight has three red zone touches in back-to-back games, with five carries inside the 10-yard line in that span.
Monday Night Football TD picks
Ferguson to score a TD (+105): Last week was a rough one for the Cowboys’ passing game, but things have been running quite smoothly in that regard for most of the season.
Quarterback Dak Prescott had 13 pass TDs over a four-game span from Weeks 4-7 and is thriving at the helm of the Cowboys’ No. 2-ranked scoring offence.
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In that aforementioned four-game span, Ferguson was a huge part of the scoring binge.
He went 4-0 vs. this prop, snagging six TDs on 24 receptions in those games. Prescott has ample options to throw to, but the fourth-year tight end is clearly a favourite in the red zone.
Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in five of his past six games — with 11 total red zone targets in that span.
Arizona’s defence has allowed the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET 11/03/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.