Canada and USA revisit their international rivalry in the final of the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The pregame narrative: USA was the best team during the round-robin and I’m bullish on its defensive ability. So, I’ll add its puck line as a parlay piece, along with player props on Connor McDavid and Zach Werenski.
Check out my Canada vs. USA same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 20.
Canada vs. USA predictions
Parlay: USA +1.5 | McDavid to score a point | Werenski to score a point (+380)
USA +1.5 (-265): Even if Canada manages to win, I can’t see it being by more than one goal.
To start, the Americans have been expectedly amazing on the defensive end. In three games, the team allowed just four goals, led by the stellar play of Connor Hellebuyck (1.00 GAA, .957 SV%).
In the final round-robin game against Sweden, USA was missing several key players while starting backup Jake Oettinger. The Americans lost but it was a closely contested 2-1 game.
On the other side, Canada went 2-1 in group play but had trouble dominating games.
The Canadians jumped out to a two-goal lead against Sweden before needing overtime to win 4-3.
Then, against Finland, they were up 4-0 late in the second period before almost collapsing but winning 5-3 off the back of an empty net goal.
I truly believe this game is a coin toss but Canada’s inability to hold leads and win big has me confident in this puck line.
Other parlay legs
McDavid to score a point (-180): If Canada gets on the board, McDavid is likely to be involved.
The Oilers captain had the lone goal in the 3-1 loss to the U.S. He also has a point in every game at this tournament.
Amongst the best players in the world, it’s clear McDavid is in a league of his own.
In Canada’s must-win game against Finland, McDavid was one of three forwards (Reinhart, Point) to play north of 16 minutes.
McDavid is dangerous on the rush, in the zone, and with the man advantage.
It’s going to be hard to break down the USA defence but I’ll put my faith in the most skilled player on the ice making his mark on this final.
Werenski to score a point (+105): To close this parlay out, I’m siding with an American defenceman.
Werenski has gone under the radar but he’s currently tied with Sidney Crosby for the most points in the tournament (five).
He’s got at least a point in every game and should see even more ice time with the news of Charlie McAvoy being sidelined.
Anyone who’s been following the NHL this season shouldn’t be shocked at this production. Werenski is tied for second among defencemen in points (59) and tied for 19th overall.
He’s on pace for over a point per game and the strong play has carried over to the 4 Nations Face-Off.
This is a good solo play at plus-money but I love the value so I’ll include it in this SGP to give the odds a nice boost.
Picks made at 9:23 a.m. ET 02/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.