We have a marquee showdown between the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: There won’t be a shortage of stars in this one and I’m betting on one of them — Damian Lillard — to deliver. A moneyline pick and an alternative total recommendation round out this same-game parlay.
Check out my +300 Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions for March 18.
Bucks vs. Warriors predictions
Parlay: Lillard over 21.5 points | Under 233.5 points | Bucks moneyline (+300)
Lillard over 21.5 points (-143): This leg will cash even if Lillard comes in well below his season-scoring average.
The all-star point guard is averaging 25.1 points per game and has 30-plus-point upside on any given night.
When these teams met in February, Lillard dropped 38 points on the Warriors. Mind you, that was with teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo on the sidelines.
Antetokounmpo is probable tonight (as is Lillard), but they’ll catch the Warriors on a back-to-back.
Golden State has been excellent at defending point guards this season, which is why we can get Lillard at a lighter number.
Lillard is 7-2 against this line in March and 9-4 since the break.
NBA SGP legs
Under 233.5 points (-195): This is the longest leg of the ticket, and for good reason.
Since the break, both teams have wielded top-10 defences. Golden State is No. 3 in defensive rating and the Bucks rank seventh.
While this is an imperfect way to assess things, it provides a snapshot of how well each team has limited scoring: The Warriors and Bucks are allowing a combined 220.0 PPG over that stretch.
Only one of Milwaukee’s last six games has cleared this total.
Golden State’s offence has taken off since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, but the Bucks have been comfortably average all season.
Both teams are playing for positioning and the Warriors are trying to avoid the play-in tournament.
I expect the defensive effort to reflect that in what’s a great pre-playoff test for both clubs.
Bucks ML (-143): We could very likely see a key Golden State piece or two sit this one out.
Even if the Warriors deploy a full roster, this is the team’s fourth game in six nights and it’s a difficult second leg of a back-to-back after facing the Denver Nuggets on Monday.
The Bucks have not been a great road team and have struggled against teams over .500.
But they’re 11-6 with a rest advantage, per Team Rankings, and their past 15 games (since losing to the Warriors on Feb. 10) paint a compelling story.
- Milwaukee is 10-5 straight up over that stretch.
- Among the wins were victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
- Three of the five losses were by three points or fewer. The other two were against the No. 1 seeds in each conference.
The Bucks are playing good ball at a pivotal time in the season.
Bucks vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:44 p.m. ET 03/18/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.