The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet in a clash of NFC elites on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay enters this primetime showdown with the best record in the NFC. Detroit has slipped out of first in the NFC North after a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. This game should carry significant weight in the conference as both teams battle for first — and a potential tiebreaker.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Lions picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 20, featuring prop predictions for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield.
Buccaneers vs. Lions picks
Best Bet: Lions -6 (-107)
Tampa Bay might have the best record in the NFC, but I’m not completely sold on the Bucs.
Firstly, they haven’t really dominated their opposition. Last week’s 30-19 win over the San Francisco 49ers was Tampa’s first win by more than three points all season.
That victory requires some context, too, as the game was close until 49ers linebacker Fred Warner was carted off.
Even after the win, Tampa Bay’s +14 point differential ranks a mediocre seventh in the conference.
The Lions, meanwhile, have dominated the opposition. Their +49 point differential is tied for first in the NFC.
Injuries also loom large in this contest. Detroit has been severely short at cornerback, while Tampa Bay is feeling the pain all over.
Terrion Arnold is practicing ahead of this game, however, which would be a huge boost for the Lions.
Conversely, Tampa Bay may not have the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Detroit’s injuries. Chris Godwin is out, while Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are game-time decisions.
The Buccaneers’ injury woes extend to standouts Lavonte David and Bucky Irving.
I’ll take a Detroit squad that has squashed opponents at home.
Key stat: Detroit is 2-0 at home with a 27.5-point average margin of victory this season.
Monday Night Football ATS pick
Goff over 259.5 passing yards (-113): The biggest reason for picking Goff to go over this line is Mayfield.
The Buccaneers can score points, and they likely will get a decent amount in this contest. Tampa Bay is sixth in points per game (27.5), and Mayfield is playing at an MVP level.
It’s unlikely that Detroit races out to a big lead and looks to run out the clock.
That will keep Goff throwing the football in a plus matchup.
Tampa Bay is 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.0) and 21st in passing yards against per contest (231.3/game).
Mayfield over 240.5 passing yards (-115): This line should be in play for Mayfield in a game where I expect the Bucs to play catch-up.
Detroit’s offence lighting it up at home seems inevitable. The Lions averaged a league-high 34.9 PPG at home in 2024 and have posted 86 points through two matchups at Ford Field this year.
A pass-heavy attack will lead to a high passing output.
Detroit’s cornerback injuries are also a plus. The team will still be shorthanded even if Arnold returns.
It also helps that this number is well within range for Mayfield. The Bucs QB is averaging 256.5 passing yards per game.
Buccaneers vs. Lions picks made at 1:53 p.m. ET 10/18/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.