Fresh off their respective bye weeks, the Denver Broncos return to action against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Denver has the No. 3 scoring defence in the NFL, and with Jayden Daniels still sidelined for the Commanders, points are expected to be at a premium. My top TD target is Denver’s Troy Franklin, thanks to his combination as a big-play threat and viable red zone target.
Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks for Nov. 30, featuring Deebo Samuel.
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Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks
Best bet: Franklin to score (+130)
Franklin is the best of both worlds as an anytime touchdown target. He gets plenty of looks in the red zone, but he’s also a home run hitter.
- According to RotoWire, Franklin ranks in the 84th percentile or better in air yards per game, team air yards share, team target share and average depth of target.
- Franklin has 14 red zone targets this season. The rest of Denver’s wide receiver room combined has 16.
-> Bet on Franklin to score at +143 on Sunday Night Football
With 101.0 air yards per game, Franklin typically has opportunities to score from anywhere on the field. But he’s also a priority target in the area closest to the goal line.
Over the past five games, Franklin has seven red zone targets — and four of those came inside the 10-yard line. Both of those numbers lead the Broncos.
Franklin and his teammates should be able to feast against the Commanders’ pass defence, as that unit allows the second-most yards per game to WRs (170.3). Washington has yielded 13 receiving TDs to opposing receivers in 11 games.
Key stat: Franklin has four TDs in his past five games, and he had eight-plus targets in each of those matchups.
Sunday Night Football anytime TD prediction
Samuel to score (+240): It’s tough to feel great about any of Washington’s scoring options against the vaunted Broncos defence, but Samuel is worth a swing at this price point.
- Samuel has five touchdowns on the year, scoring in half of his 10 games.
- He has scored in back-to-back games.
- He has eight red zone opportunities (targets/carries) in his past four games.
-> Go to full Broncos vs. Commanders betting markets for SNF
The return of Terry McLaurin might seem like a net negative for Samuel’s chances to score, but I’m not seeing it that way.
McLaurin will probably draw the attention of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain, and McLaurin’s presence should improve Washington’s overall chances of moving the ball.
Broncos vs. Commanders TD picks made at 1 p.m. ET Nov. 30, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.