Two playoff-bound teams from the National League meet on Monday night, as the San Diego Padres open a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The pregame narrative: Technically, the Padres aren’t a lock for the postseason yet. But a win tonight would change that. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central title — and a first-round bye — on Sunday. Given that the stakes are much higher for the Padres, they’re favoured over Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.
Check out my Brewers vs. Padres SGP predictions for Sept. 22, featuring a prop bets on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Christian Yelich.
Brewers vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres under 3.5 runs | Tatis under 1.5 bases | Yelich over 0.5 hits (+285)
Padres under 3.5 runs (-114): This could be a hangover game for the Brewers, who were popping bottles in St. Louis yesterday.
But one man I don’t expect to be hurting is Peralta, as he looks to put a bow on his strongest season yet.
The right-hander’s 2.65 ERA and 5.4 bWAR are the best of his eight-year career. He also leads the NL in wins (17), if you’re into that sort of thing.
And from August onward, Peralta has been the most dominant version of himself on the mound:
- 8 starts
- 1.43 ERA
- 12.5 K/9
In that span, Peralta has allowed one or zero runs seven times. His opponents’ average full-game total is 2.6 runs.
Back in June, Peralta held the Padres to one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings. Their lineup is just 8-for-64 (.125) with 24 strikeouts against him.
San Diego has also gone under a 3.5-run total in eight of its past 12 games.
More SGP picks
Tatis under 1.5 total bases (-177): Tatis hasn’t been able to crack the code against Peralta yet, albeit in a small sample. Still, I want to fade the leadoff man in this matchup.
In his past meetings with Peralta, Tatis is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts and a 60.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s a lot of incorrect guesses from the three-time all-star.
This is as much a way to back Peralta as it is to fade Tatis, but the under on this prop has been hitting at a decent rate lately.
In his past 20 games, Tatis has gone under 1.5 bases 12 times.
Yelich over 0.5 hits (-186): We’ll need to see the lineup first to know if Yelich is even playing, as veterans sometimes get a recovery day following a playoff-clinching celebration.
Given that Yelich was off Sunday, though, I expect him to slot back in.
The designated hitter is 15-6 vs. this prop in his past 21 starts, batting .287 in that span. Not otherworldly, but pretty darn good.
He also has a solid history against Padres starter Nick Pivetta, batting 6-for-16 with two homers and two doubles.
Yelich is batting .296 since the start of August, and his .293 xBA indicates that that’s not a fluke.
Brewers vs. Padres predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.