A pair of Atlanta Braves hitters stare down favourable matchups against the San Diego Padres on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: Picking on Nick Pivetta is how I’m centring my betting approach for Sunday Night Baseball. The Canadian pitcher has troublesome head-to-head results with Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia, making both excellent choices on a pair of plus-money props.
Check out my Braves vs. Padres prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on March 30.
Braves vs. Padres prop bets
Best Bet: Ozuna over 1.5 total bases (+115)
It’s extremely early in the 2025 MLB season but the results suggest that Ozuna is seeing the ball just fine at the plate.
The Braves slugger only has two hits in seven at-bats this campaign but he’s still finding ways to get on base. The designated hitter has drawn six walks through three games, tying Oneil Cruz for the league lead ahead of Sunday’s action.
Now, walks don’t do us any good on the total bases market, but it is encouraging to know that he’s putting together solid plate appearances.
What’s even more uplifting are his career numbers against Pivetta.
Here’s how Ozuna has fared against the Padres righty, courtesy of Swish Analytics:
- 8-for-29
- Six home runs
Ozuna has clobbered Pivetta, as his six home runs are the most of any hitter vs. pitcher matchup on Sunday.
Pivetta struggled to limit the long ball a year ago. He tied for 11th in home runs allowed in 2024 (28).
This matchup is a glaring mismatch and I’ll happily back the slugger at a palatable price point.
Key stat: Ozuna tied for eighth among all hitters in total bases last season (333).
Best MLB picks
Arcia over 0.5 total bases (-143): Arcia is a logical pivot for those looking for a safer pick.
The middle infielder’s head-to-head success against Pivetta isn’t to the same degree as Ozuna’s but it’s still worth noting.
Arcia is an impressive six-for-nine with a double and a pair of homers.
Some of the reason for the shorter line is due to Arcia’s underwhelming start. He is just 1-for-7 through the first three games of the campaign.
Arcia is coming off a down season, but he is still just one year removed from being an All-Star.
This matchup seems like the right time for Arcia to have his first solid performance of the 2025 season.
Braves vs. Padres prop picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 03/30/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.