Borussia Dortmund takes on Real Madrid in the Champions League final.
The pregame narrative: Dortmund’s underdog run to Wembley Stadium has been built on the back of great defence and strong goaltending. I’m taking the under even with high-powered Madrid on the other end of the pitch — and am also backing Niclas Fullkrug to record a shot on target.
Check out these Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid Champions League final picks for June 1.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid Champions League final picks
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+112)
Dortmund shut out Kylian Mbappe and Paris Saint-German through two legs of the semi-final.
The Parisians did generate a combined 4.7 expected goals in those games, per FBRef, but that speaks to the talent of keeper Gregor Kobel.
He’s posted a Champions League-leading six clean sheets and has only allowed eight goals in 11 games.
The defence in front of him has been stellar, too, blocking 48 shots and intercepting 110 passes during the tournament. Dortmund has conceded just five goals in the knockout stages (0.83 goals/game) and nine goals in total (0.75 goals/game).
But shutting down Madrid will still be a challenge.
Led by talents like Jude Bellingham and Vincicius Jr., Real’s offence rivals any team on the planet. They topped La Liga in goals scored (87) and goal differential (61) and haven’t been shut out in any of their 12 UCL games.
That said, Madrid has gone under this total in half of the knockout-stage games. It is averaging 1.6 goals per game in the knockout stage, down from 2.6 during the group stage.
With ample time to prepare for this fixture, I trust Edin Terzic’s side to stay the course on defence.
Key stat: Five straight Champions League finals have gone under this total, with four straight 1-0 matches.
Quick picks
Fullkrug over 0.5 shots on target (-127): Fullkrug has been the key cog in Dortmund’s attack this season.
He leads BVB in goals (15) and is second in assists (10) across all competitions. Three of those goals and two of those assists came in the Champions League.
But I’m not asking Fullkrug to score or assist on Saturday.
I just need the forward to register a shot on target, which is something he’s done in eight straight games. Fullkrurg has registered a SOT in five straight UCL games and leads the team in shots on target this season (36).
Picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET 05/30/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.