After a pair of stat-padding performances, the Toronto Blue Jays get one more game at Coors Field with a sweep on the line.
The pregame narrative: Toronto scored 25 runs the past two nights for a couple of dominant wins over the Colorado Rockies. Naturally, the AL East-leading Jays are heavy favourites to win on Wednesday afternoon against MLB’s worst team.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rockies for Aug. 6, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Rockies
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 hits (-108)
Guerrero didn’t really get in on the fun in Monday’s series opener, going 1-for-5 with a single and a run scored.
He made up for lost time on Tuesday, though, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. He also had a 400-foot flyout that would’ve been a home run in 16 of MLB’s 30 parks (including Rogers Centre), per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero is having a down year in terms of his power production, but he still wields one of the elite bats in the sport.
Check out his rankings in some of the most telling batted ball metrics:
- 100th-percentile xBA (.322)
- 93rd-percentile xSLG (.537)
- 90th-percentile hard-hit rate (51.4%)
- 89th-percentile K rate (13.4%)
Left-hander Kyle Freeland will pitch for the Rockies today, and his six-pitch mix includes all three fastball types (four-seamer, sinker, cutter). That’s excellent news for Vladdy.
This season, Guerrero is 20-for-57 (.351) with a .378 xBA and a .614 SLG against fastballs from LHPs.
Walks are generally a risk for Toronto’s patient first baseman, but I expect he’ll get plenty of pitches to hit. Freeland has a 5.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 89th percentile.
Key stat: In his past 17 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 hits nine times. He’s 26-for-68 (.382) in that span.
Quick picks
Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+115): Kirk is 4-for-9 in this series from the No. 5 spot in the lineup. Assuming he’s in the heart of the order again today, this pick has some value.
This price wouldn’t typically excite me, but the Jays’ offence is red hot — and it clearly knows how to capitalize at Coors Field.
In the past two weeks, Toronto has seven hitters who’ve played at least nine games and posted a wRC+ of 123 or above.
Then there’s Kirk, who’s been back for six games after an injured list stint and has a .318/.400/.409 slash line (132 wRC+) since making his return.
Freeland has a .304 xBA, which ranks in the first percentile. And his 10th-percentile xERA (5.21) is right in line with his actual ERA.
Toronto should be able to tee off, and Kirk should have RBI opportunities from the middle of the lineup.
Blue Jays -2.5 (-120): Toronto has outscored Colorado, 25-5, through two games. It’s not always going to be that easy, but I do think another blowout is in play on Wednesday.
- Colorado is 6-9 in its past 15 games. All nine of its losses in that span have come by 4+ runs.
- The Jays have the second-best run line record in the majors (67-48, 58.3%). The Rockies’ run line record ranks dead last (46-67, 40.7%).
Furthermore, Colorado is 9-11 vs. this bloated run line in Freeland’s starts this year. He has a 5.40 ERA in his past seven outings.
Colorado native Kevin Gausman, who’ll start for the Jays today, has a 2.74 ERA in his past seven outings. And the Jays covered a -2.5 run line in four of those games.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 08/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.