The Toronto Blue Jays look to build off Monday’s offensive explosion as they continue their three-game set against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto scored 15 runs in yesterday’s contest behind two home runs and six RBI from Bo Bichette. On Tuesday, Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays opposite Anthony Molina for the Rockies.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rockies for Aug. 5, featuring prop bets on Bichette and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Rockies
Best bet: Over 11.5 runs (-112)
As shown yesterday, this total can be covered by one team alone at Coors Field. But I do expect the Rockies to contribute tonight.
- Berrios had a down month in July. He had a 5.83 ERA (5.53 FIP) across six starts. Four of the six games went over this lofty total.
- During that time, he allowed seven blasts and 19 earned runs over 29.1 innings of work.
- His 10th percentile barrel rate (11.2%) explains some of that hard contact.
And giving up hard contact is a recipe for disaster at Coors Field.
On the other side, Molina is making his first start of the season after spending his time as a bulk reliever.
His 7.27 ERA is uninspiring, and the righty has allowed seven earned runs over his last three appearances despite only pitching 5.2 innings.
Key stat: The last four games played at Coors Field have gone over 11.5 runs with an average of 19 runs scored.
Quick picks
Bichette over 0.5 RBI (+102): I was pleasantly surprised to find this pick at plus money when scouring the market for value.
Bichette went 3-for-6 last night with two home runs and six RBI. He continues to be Toronto’s best hitter coming out of the all-star break.
Check out his stats in 18 post-ASG contests:
- .385 average
- .603 SLG
- 21 RBI
He had at least a hit in all but two of those games.
Bichette isn’t always slotted in the best run-producing spot, but he’s seen a lot of time batting cleanup lately.
The shortstop leads the Jays with 74 RBI, 16 more than Vladimir Guerrero, who’s second with 58.
That all goes before mentioning the Grade-A matchup, but I’ll explore that more in my next pick.
Varsho over 1.5 total bases (-117): After going hitless in his first two games back from injury, Varsho made a splash on Monday, going 2-for-5 with a home run.
And now he gets a great matchup with an inexperienced righty. That’s important because Varsho’s .646 SLG vs. RHPs is excellent, while his .095 SLG vs. LHPs is dreadful.
Additionally, Colorado’s starter struggles, especially against left-handed batters.
In a small sample size of 21 at-bats this season, Molina allows a .381 average and .857 SLG (1.238 OPS) to lefties.
Varsho rarely takes walks (5.4% walk rate), and that free-swinging spirit will also benefit this pick as free passes don’t help us.
If Molina is pulled early, Varsho will still have a great opportunity to get on MLB’s second-worst bullpen (5.29 ERA).
Blue Jays best bets made at 8:38 a.m. ET on 08/05/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.