It’s Labour Day, and the Toronto Blue Jays are in action for a rare Monday matinee against the Cincinnati Reds.
The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene‘s high-octane stuff will be on display at Great American Ball Park this afternoon for a Reds team that is just 2-8 in its past 10. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt at the outset of a six-game road trip.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 1, featuring Greene and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds
Best bet: Greene over 5.5 Ks (-125)
It’s been tough to take the over on strikeouts props for pitchers facing the Jays this year, but this line feels like an overcorrection.
Yes, Toronto has MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) and has only averaged 6.6 total Ks per game since the all-star break. Those are pretty compelling reasons to fade whoever’s on the mound against them.
Greene (5-4, 2.81 ERA) isn’t just anybody, though.
The 25-year-old fireballer was my preseason pick to win NL Cy Young, and if not for a groin injury that took a huge bite out of his season, he could be right in the mix.
Greene sits 99 mph with his fastball, and he offsets that with a wipeout slider.
His slider has a 47.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the 12th-highest rate among any MLB pitch in a sample with more than 500 qualifiers.
For as strikeout-conscious as the Blue Jays have been, Greene’s slider should tap into a weakness.
Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, Toronto has the 10th-lowest batting average (.227) and the 12th-highest whiff rate (34.4%) in the majors.
Greene has an 11.0 K/9 this season, which is better than guys like Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown and Spencer Strider. He clears this line routinely, and I think he can overcome this matchup.
Key stat: Greene is averaging 6.7 Ks per start and is 10-4 vs. this strikeout line.
Jays prop picks
Over 8.5 runs (-103): Though I expect some strikeouts from Greene, that doesn’t mean I think Toronto will be totally silent on offence.
- The Jays still have the league’s best second-half offence, averaging 5.7 runs per game with a 133 wRC+ and an .837 OPS.
- For context, the league-average OPS this year is .720.
Toronto has been the most overs-friendly team this season, per Team Rankings, with a 77-54-6 record (58.8%). The lineup has a ton to do with that, but it’s not the only reason I expect ample scoring today.
Bassitt has been markedly worse on the road this season, with a 6.10 ERA in 13 games (compared to a 2.76 ERA in 15 home games).
Also, Toronto’s bullpen has a 5.51 ERA since the all-star break, which is second-worst in MLB.
Bichette over 1.5 total bases (+125): Bichette was absolutely dialled in August, and I’m hoping he carries that forward into the final month.
- In August, Bichette posted a .367/.425/.523 slash line in 27 games.
- He averaged 2.1 bases per game and went 15-12 vs. this line.
Greene’s stuff is electric, but he can get burned, too. He allows a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks in the 24th percentile, which is a tough partner for his fifth-percentile ground ball rate (30.6%).
Bichette has barrelled up some pitches from Greene in the past, going 3-for-6 with a triple and two HRs.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 09/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.