Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night as they look to even their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The pregame narrative: Scherzer has looked great in August and gives Toronto a good chance to take an early lead. In the prop market, Daulton Varsho and former Blue Jay Spencer Horwitz are worth backing on plus-money plays.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 19.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates
Best bet: Horwitz over 0.5 runs (+125)
Scherzer has been solid but not dominant for the Blue Jays. None of his 10 starts have been scoreless, and with that in mind, Horwitz has as good a chance as any Pittsburgh player to score on Tuesday.
The ex-Jay has been the Pirates’ leadoff man for the better part of two months, and he’s put together some strong numbers lately.
Check out what Horwitz has accomplished in his past 25 games:
- .326 BA
- .388 OBP
- .506 SLG
- 14 runs
There’s a notable platoon advantage for the left-hitting Horwitz, too, as he’s posted a career .803 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and a .516 OPS vs. lefties.
Scherzer, meanwhile, has allowed a higher OPS to left-hitting players (.753) than right-hitting players (.703) this season.
There’s nothing flashy about this pick, because Horwitz is far from a flashy hitter, but the price is compelling for a top-of-lineup guy with a platoon advantage who’s excelling right now.
Key stat: Horwitz has scored in 10 of his past 21 starts.
Quick picks
Blue Jays -0.5 – first five innings (-107): Toronto was level with the Paul Skenes-led Pirates through five innings yesterday. Tonight, I expect the Jays to pull ahead by the halfway mark.
Scherzer is off to a great start this month, with three quality outings:
- vs. Royals (Aug. 2): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K
- at Dodgers (Aug. 8): 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 5 K
- vs. Cubs (Aug. 14): 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 K
Another performance like that would put Toronto in a great position to cash this bet. Especially considering the Pirates are scoring the fewest F5 runs per game (1.98), per Team Rankings.
Keller has been in much worse shape than Scherzer recently, coughing up 19 runs over his past five outings (7.54 ERA).
Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+120): Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile, but he mashes righty pitching pretty routinely.
The stocky outfielder is slugging .692 with 21 extra-base hits (13 home runs) in 35 games vs. RHPs this season.
He also has a .295/.404/.682 slash line this month after missing all of June and July with a hamstring injury.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is dealing with some hamstring tightness of his own, which should bump Varsho up from the heart of the order into the No. 3 or 4 spot tonight. That doesn’t matter much, but it could lead to an extra opportunity at the plate.
Keller has allowed a notably higher OPS to left-hitting players (.752) compared to right-hitting players (.650).
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 08/19/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.