The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a series win over the Miami Marlins on Saturday afternoon in South Florida.
The pregame narrative: Toronto still has MLB’s best offence in the second half, and it should be on full display in today’s game. Daulton Varsho has a platoon advantage that I’m particularly keen on tapping into.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Marlins for Aug. 23, featuring Varsho and Jakob Marsee.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Marlins
Best bet: Over 8 runs (-120)
Thanks in large part to the mastery of Shane Bieber, last night’s series opener fell below this line in Toronto’s 5-2 win.
But based on today’s pitching matchup, among other factors, I expect a more offence-inclined result.
Toronto’s Jose Berrios is coming off his worst outing of the year against the Rangers: 4.1 innings, 10 hits, six earned runs.
In nine starts dating back to the beginning of July, Berrios has a 5.68 ERA, with 66 baserunners allowed in 44.1 IP. At this projected run total, overs are 7-1-1 in that span.
Miami’s Janson Junk really hasn’t been any better lately.
Junk has gone six consecutive starts allowing at least three earned runs, posting a 6.19 ERA in that span. Overs are 4-1-1 vs. an 8-run total in those games.
And keep in mind that Toronto is the No. 1 overs team in MLB this year. Overs are 70-53-6 (56.9%) in Jays games, per Team Rankings.
This month, this over is 12-5-4 in Miami’s games.
Toronto has a 137 wRC+ in the second half, which is the best in the league. The club should be able to drive plenty of offence, and Berrios has been shaky enough to give some runs back.
Key stat: This over is 10-1-2 in Berrios’ past 13 starts (since June 9).
Jays prop bets
Marsee over 0.5 runs (+132): I expect some scoring today, and Marsee should contribute to that for the home squad.
The rookie outfielder broke into the big leagues at the start of August and has largely been deployed as a middle-of-the-order bat for the Marlins. But he started the past three games in the No. 2 spot, which is worth noting.
From the second spot in the lineup, Marsee should have an excellent chance to score — especially if he continues to rake the way he has.
Marsee has a .353/.430/.706 slash line through 21 games. And his .345 xBA, as measured by Baseball Savant, suggests to me that this isn’t a total fluke.
With a 12.7% walk rate so far — well above the league average of 8.4% — he’s also capable of reaching base the patient way.
Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+123): Varsho is slugging .696 against right-handed pitchers this year, with a remarkable 14 homers in 126 plate appearances.
At a price like this, I’m thrilled to buy in.
Left-hitting batters are 46-for-157 (.293) with a .459 SLG vs. Junk this season. He also ranks in the 17th percentile or worse in strikeout rate, whiff rate, xBA and hard-hit rate.
Varsho strikes out a ton, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern against Junk.
In his past 15 games, Varsho has six homers and a .326/.415/.783 slash line.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 08/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.