Shane Bieber makes his season debut on Friday night for the Toronto Blue Jays in their series opener against the Miami Marlins.
The pregame narrative: Bieber, who the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t pitched since April 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But he’s turned in some very encouraging rehab outings this month, and his Jays are favoured to win in South Florida.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Marlins for Aug. 22, featuring Bieber and George Springer.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Marlins
Best bet: Bieber over 16.5 outs (-115)
It’s been nearly a year and a half since Bieber last pitched in an MLB game, so it’s not easy to get a feel for what Friday will bring.
One thing I do know is that he’s absolutely built up enough to blow by this line.
Here’s how Bieber’s three rehab starts with Triple-A Buffalo went:
- Aug. 3: 5.0 IP (15 outs) on 62 pitches
- Aug. 9: 5.2 IP (17 outs) on 78 pitches
- Aug. 15: 7.0 IP (21 outs) on 90 pitches
Notice the upward trajectory? Stamina shouldn’t be an issue here.
So it’ll likely come down to effectiveness, and against a subpar Marlins lineup, I’ll take my chances.
Miami ranks 20th in wRC+ (96) this season and 18th in runs per game (4.32).
The Marlins also have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate and the eighth-lowest walk rate, so Bieber should be able to stack quick outs.
Coming off an off-day, there’s certainly a risk that Toronto turns to its rested bullpen early. But it won’t be because Bieber is ill-conditioned to work into the sixth — and I don’t think Miami has the firepower to chase him, either.
Key stat: From 2022-24, Bieber averaged 18.9 outs per game. He was 44-10 vs. this outs prop in that span.
Jays prop bet
Springer over 0.5 runs (-130): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat for Toronto, but his stellar results necessitated a lineup promotion.
By July, Springer was up in the No. 2 spot. And in August, he’s back to leadoff — where he’s thrived for most of his career.
And obviously, that’s prime real estate when we’re talking about a run prop.
Springer has earned the leadoff reinstatement by posting a .905 OPS this season. In 16 games since the all-star break, he has a blistering .397/.486/.667 slash line.
Oh, and he’s scored a run in 14 straight games.
Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA) will reportedly come up from the minors to start for the Marlins. His Baseball Savant page is littered with below-average metrics, including a 45.3% hard-hit rate (16th percentile) and a .250 xBA (47th percentile).
Blue Jays best bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 08/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.