Shane Bieber makes his season debut on Friday night for the Toronto Blue Jays in their series opener against the Miami Marlins.
The pregame narrative: Bieber, who the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t pitched since April 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But he’s turned in some very encouraging rehab outings this month, and his Jays are favoured to win in South Florida.
Check out my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Marlins for Aug. 22, featuring George Springer.
Blue Jays best bet vs. Marlins
Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-125)
Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat for Toronto, but his stellar results necessitated a lineup promotion.
By July, Springer was up in the No. 2 spot. And in August, he’s back to leadoff — where he’s thrived for most of his career.
And obviously, that’s prime real estate when we’re talking about a run prop. Especially for one of the highest-scoring clubs in MLB (4.88 runs/game, seventh).
Springer has earned the leadoff reinstatement by posting a .905 OPS this season. In 16 games since the all-star break, he has a blistering .397/.486/.667 slash line.
Oh, and he’s scored a run in 14 straight games.
Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA) will reportedly come up from the minors to start for the Marlins. His Baseball Savant page is littered with below-average metrics, including a 45.3% hard-hit rate (16th percentile) and a .250 xBA (47th percentile).
Roughly two-thirds of what Gusto throws to right-hitting players are four-seamers and sinkers. Springer pulverizes those pitches.
Against four-seamers and sinkers from RHPs this season, Springer has a .348/.443/.600 slash line in 159 plate appearances.
Key stat: Springer ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and chase rate.
Blue Jays best bet made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 08/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.