The Toronto Blue Jays are in a hole as the ALCS switches homes ahead of Game 3.
The pregame narrative: The Seattle Mariners have brought it to the Blue Jays, outscoring them 13-4 through two games. Toronto is in desperate need of a win behind Shane Bieber while the Mariners counter with George Kirby in hopes of a 3-0 series lead.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays moneyline | Guerrero to record a hit | Raleigh to record a hit (+380)
Blue Jays moneyline (+112): This is likely the last chance for Toronto to stay in this series, which I’m sure it’s well aware of.
The Blue Jays are top-heavy when it comes to starting pitchers, so who knows what someone like Max Scherzer can do in Game 4.
But what is known is that Bieber is a great pitcher, and he gives Toronto a solid chance to win.
Kirby certainly had the better season of the two starters, but this head-to-head matchup is actually working in Bieber’s favour.
- Kirby vs. Toronto’s lineup: .281 average (.298 xBA), 16.2% K rate.
- Bieber vs. Seattle’s lineup: .229 average (.215 xBA), 37.9% K rate.
Both pitchers have 60+ plate appearances to go off of, so this is noteworthy data.
And it shows Bieber’s brilliance against the Mariners in the past. He’s been in enough big games in his career to believe he has what it takes to outduel Kirby on the road.
These are the games that the Jays front office acquired Bieber for, and I have a strong feeling the former Cy Young winner won’t disappoint.
Toronto won five of the seven games Bieber started in the regular season. Additionally, the Jays swept their three-game series in Seattle this year with a run differential of +14.
MLB SGP legs
Guerrero to record a hit (-245): Guerrero is experiencing a roller coaster in the playoffs.
- He lit up the Yankees in the ALDS, going 9-for-17 with three homers and no Ks.
- In the ALCS, he’s 0-for-7 in two games vs. the Mariners with just one walk.
It’s a night-and-day difference, but that isn’t going to deter me from backing Vladdy to show out when his team needs him most.
In three games in Seattle during the regular season, Guerrero went 2-1 against this wager. In the game where he went hitless, he recorded two walks in five at-bats.
The slugging first baseman is 2-for-9 in his career off Kirby, but his .325 xBA indicates some bad ball luck in those meetings.
Including the regular season and the playoffs, Guerrero had a single stretch of three consecutive games without a hit.
Raleigh to record a hit (-165): This price doesn’t make much sense to me, so I’ll gladly include this pick in the SGP.
The switch-hitting catcher is a wagon right now and is worth a look regardless of the pitching matchup.
He’s 2-for-8 against Bieber all-time, but has struck just once, which is promising.
But I can’t stress enough how little that matters to me right now. Monday was the first game this postseason in which Raleigh went without a hit. He still walked twice and scored two runs.
Overall, he’s 6-1 against this line in the playoffs with a whopping .357 average.
If he can’t get a knock off Bieber, there’s always the opportunity to get after the Jays’ shaky bullpen.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 1:35 p.m. on 10/14/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.