An ex-New York Mets pitcher gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays in Saturday’s showdown.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt starts for Toronto and is coming off an impressive season debut. I am, however, fading the Blue Jays’ starter. Pete Alonso is seeing the ball well and is an excellent choice to bring in a run at juicy plus-money odds.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Mets for April 5.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
Best bet: Bassitt under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Bassitt was excellent in his season debut.
The Blue Jays starter twirled an absolute gem against the Baltimore Orioles:
- 6.0 innings pitched
- 1 earned run
- 2 walks
- 7 strikeouts
The seven strikeouts are concerning for those looking to fade Bassitt, but there’s reason to believe that a repeat performance isn’t very likely.
Firstly, the veteran has a lengthy track record that suggests he’s not an elite punchout artist. Bassitt’s career average of 5.13 strikeouts per game sits below this mark, as did his Ks per game mark from last year (5.4).
Bassitt didn’t generate great swing-and-miss stuff in 2024, either, per Baseball Savant:
- 10th percentile chase rate
- 18th percentile whiff rate
- 44th percentile K rate
The matchup makes it especially difficult to envision Bassitt having an above-average performance. The Mets have the third-lowest strikeout percentage (18.6%).
They were especially proficient at avoiding Ks in Friday’s series opener against the Blue Jays, recording just one in the contest.
Don’t expect Bassitt to replicate his strikeout total from his season debut.
Key stat: The Mets are averaging the third-fewest strikeouts per game (6.71).
Prop predictions
Alonso over 0.5 RBI (+165): Alonso has been excellent to begin the 2025 campaign.
Check out how the Mets slugger has performed across several key stats:
- .292 average
- .433 on-base percentage
- .750 SLG
- 2 doubles
- 3 home runs
- 10 RBI
All 10 of Alonso’s RBI have come in his last four games, showing that he’s in elite form entering this contest.
Alonso’s at-bat dominance is a big reason for this pick, but so is the guy who’s hitting in front of him. The newly acquired Juan Soto is batting just ahead of Alonso, and his .387 on-base percentage enhances the Polar Bear’s chances of driving in a run.
The first baseman is 0-for-5 against Bassitt in his career, but I’m taking that as a sign that he is due for a big outing against his former teammate.
Alonso has racked up 17 total bases in his last four games.
Blue Jays vs. Mets picks made at 12:44 p.m. ET on 04/05/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.