I’m backing a hitter and fading a pitcher in my Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays prop picks for Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Santana boasts an impressive track record against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman and is a solid pick to beat his plus-money bases prop. I’m fading Gavin Williams‘ strikeout prop against a stingy Blue Jays lineup.
Check out my Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks for May 3.
Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians
Best Bet: Santana over 1.5 total bases (+163)
This isn’t a line Santana beats with any sort of regularity.
The Guardians slugger has recorded two-plus bases in just seven games this season, and he hasn’t recorded an extra-base hit since April 9.
But there are several reasons to back him on this prop.
The first is his track record against Gausman. Santana has crushed the Blue Jays’ righty across 21 at-bats:
- Seven hits
- Five extra-base hits
Secondly, Gausman is having a tough go of things this season. He pairs a 4.50 ERA with a 3.91 FIP, and the advanced numbers suggest he may no longer possess elite stuff.
- 48th-percentile expected ERA (3.88)
- 40th-percentile whiff rate (23.8)
- 47th-percentile strikeout rate (21.2)
Gausman’s most recent outing was his worst of the campaign. The Toronto star lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing six earned runs while walking five batters.
I expect his struggles to continue against a familiar face who has done well against him in the past.
Key stat: Santana has a .364 batting average across his last four games.
Quick pick
Williams under 4.5 strikeouts (-115): Williams possesses some strikeout skills.
- 68th-percentile chase rate (30.2)
- 74th-percentile whiff rate (29.1)
While those are solid numbers, they haven’t translated to elite punchout totals. He has a 56th-percentile strikeout rate (22.8), and he’s topped this total in only three of six games.
I’m skeptical of his chances of doing so in a difficult matchup. The Blue Jays have the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (7.09).
Additionally, shorter-than-usual outings are always in Williams’ range of possibilities. He’s pitched five innings or shorter in four of his last six outings, lasting three or fewer twice.
His 5.14 ERA and 4.88 FIP are worrisome in addition to his .275 opponent batting average.
The advanced numbers paint a similar picture, too. Williams enters this contest with a 12th-percentile expected ERA (5.91) and an eighth-percentile expected opponent batting average (.304).
Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:49 a.m. ET on 05/03/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.