The scuffling Toronto Blue Jays look to get back in the win column in Thursday night’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox.
The pregame narrative: Toronto dropped the first two games of this series, and its two-game AL East lead vanished in the process. The Jays will start Louis Varland in a bullpen game in hopes of snapping a 1-6 skid.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 25 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop bets on Brayan Bello, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Masataka Yoshida.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Bello under 3.5 Ks (-115)
My colleague Spencer Closs faded Garrett Crochet’s strikeouts prop yesterday and cashed, so let’s go back to that well with Bello on the mound.
Crochet’s line (6.5) was nearly double what Bello is projected for, but they are different types of pitchers. Crochet leads the AL with an 11.2 K/9, while Bello’s K/9 sits at a paltry 6.7.
- Bello has been particularly light on strikeouts this month, accruing just 13 Ks over four starts. He’s 2-2 vs. this prop, but both overs landed on exactly four Ks.
- Toronto has seen plenty of Bello, which should be a boon for the lineup. The Jays have a 20.0 K% against him in 145 plate appearances. For context, the average K rate this year is 22.1%.
- Bello has a 13th-percentile whiff rate and a 17th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.
Toronto will be a tough matchup for Bello in the strikeout department, and not just because they know the right-hander well.
The Jays have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.7%), the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) and the highest contact rate on out-of-zone pitches.
After Crochet went 8.0 innings last night, the Red Sox have a rested bullpen. They could opt for a quick hook on Bello, which would only serve to lessen his strikeout opportunities.
Key stat: Bello had just one strikeout in his lone start vs. the Blue Jays this season (6.0 IP, eight hits, three runs).
Jays prop predictions
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108): Guerrero is 0-for-6 in this series, but his track record against Bello has me interested in buying a turnaround.
- Guerrero is 11-for-27 (.407) with two home runs and four doubles vs. Bello.
- Vladdy is 7-3 against this prop in Bello’s 10 career starts when facing Toronto.
After batting 21-for-41 (.512) in his first 10 games this month, Guerrero is 7-for-41 (.171) in his past 11. It’s time for the pendulum to swing back the other way.
Guerrero still boasts a 100th-percentile xBA (.320) and a 93rd-percentile xSLG (.530).
Yoshida over 1.5 bases (+128), over 0.5 RBI (+170): I was a day early backing Yoshida to notch an RBI in Tuesday’s series opener. He had an RBI double and a solo homer last night.
That continued a torrid stretch for the cleanup hitter, who still has value on both of these prop markets Thursday.
Yoshida is batting .406 over his past eight games, notching six multi-hit performances. He’s 7-1 vs. his bases prop and 6-2 vs. this RBI prop in that span.
With a sub-.400 SLG on the season, I don’t expect this hot streak to last for long. But while it’s here, I think these are playable prices to back the designated hitter.
Blue Jays picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 09/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.