It’s time for the final homestand of the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular season, and the Boston Red Sox are in town to open a three-game series on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto sits two games clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East and can wrap things up in a matter of days. Tonight, Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the home team in search of a fifth straight outing with fewer than two runs allowed.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 23 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Jarren Duran, George Springer and Masataka Yoshida.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Duran over 1.5 total bases (+128)
Duran has bounced around Boston’s lineup a bit, but he’s back in the leadoff spot, which means he’ll get as many opportunities as possible to cash this bet.
And although Gausman is on a heater for the Blue Jays, this is a matchup that Duran can thrive in. After all, he’s done it before.
- In their past matchups, Duran is 8-for-22 (.364) vs. Gausman with five doubles and a home run.
- Duran went 2-0 vs. this prop last season when facing Gausman at Rogers Centre. He had an extra-base hit off the right-hander in both games.
Duran has 92nd-percentile sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant, and I like his chances of stretching for a double if he finds a gap.
Rogers Centre has allowed more doubles than average to left-handed batters in 12 of the past 14 seasons, as tracked by Baseball Savant’s park factors.
The other component I like for this play is that Duran fares well against Gausman’s two-pitch mix of four-seam fastballs and splitters.
Against those pitch types from right-handers this season, Duran has a .317/.412/.617 slash line in 180 at-bats.
Key stat: Over his past 19 games, Duran is 10-9 vs. this prop while slugging .507.
Jays prop predictions
Parlay: Gausman over 5.5 Ks, Springer over 0.5 hits (+130): Despite what I think Duran could accomplish tonight, Gausman is in a good spot to mow down the Red Sox.
- In his lone start vs. Boston this season, Gausman struck out 10 over 8.0 innings.
- He has a 30.6% K rate against the Red Sox’ active lineup in 157 plate appearances (MLB average K rate is 22.1%).
- Gausman is 7-4 vs. this prop in his past 11 starts, averaging 6.6 Ks per game.
I don’t mind backing Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-148) as a standalone here. But that’s a lot of juice, so I tacked on a hit from Springer to push this into plus-money territory.
Springer is batting .354 over his past 20 games and is 16-4 vs. this prop.
Yoshida over 0.5 RBI (+200): Yoshida is not your typical cleanup hitter. But he’s in the No. 4 spot right now, and that makes me very interested in this RBI prop price.
Though he only has three extra-base hits this month, Yoshida has been solid at the dish with a .313 batting average. And he’s 4-1 vs. this prop since moving into the cleanup spot.
Yoshida is also 6-for-12 with two doubles and a homer off Gausman. If there’s traffic on the basepaths in front of him, this price will look like a bargain.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.