The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch the AL East on Sunday in their regular-season finale against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny with one game to play. A win means the division and a first-round bye. The Jays can also clinch with a New York Yankees loss, but Kevin Gausman and Co. are favoured, and will want to take matters into their own hands.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 28, featuring a prop bet on George Springer.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 innings (-125)
Hats off to John Schneider for ensuring Gausman got the ball today.
Toronto’s ace has been on another level since the all-star break, and he should put the team in a good position to win this game.
- Gausman has a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 12 starts since the all-star break.
- In that span, he has a 26% K rate and a .186 opponent batting average.
- The righty faced the Rays on Sept. 17 and held them to one run over 6.1 IP.
Gausman hasn’t gotten a ton of run support lately, though, and Toronto’s offence has mostly looked rudderless down the stretch.
The group has come alive over the last three games, but I’m skeptical it will be able to hit lefty Ian Seymour today.
Seymour began the season as a reliever and has a 2.08 ERA across six outings since his first start on Aug. 25. One of those was against the Jays on Sept. 17, where he threw 7.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.
The Jays will want to play this game as a chess match, and I anticipate that’ll mean another low-scoring affair.
Key stat: Four of Gausman’s last five starts have gone under this number.
Jays prop predictions
Springer over 1.5 bases (-108): Springer is one Blue Jay I trust to come through in the clutch.
The veteran outfielder has had a career year, posting a .306/.395/.553 slash line, and can put a bow on it with a strong performance today.
Springer is slugging .628 this month and .578 at home. He actually runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties, but did go 1-for-3 off Seymour earlier this month.
And batting out of the leadoff spot, he’ll have the best chance of clearing this line from a volume standpoint.
Springer leads MLB in wRC+ (204) since the all-star break.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 09/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.