As MLB’s hottest team entering the all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are ready to compete for a playoff spot in the second half.
The latest: The Jays went 12-3 in their final 15 games before the Midsummer Classic, moving into sole possession of first place in the AL East as a result. Toronto is far exceeding its preseason expectations and is now a -500 favourite to make the playoffs.
Check out the latest Blue Jays playoff odds and win total projection for 2025.
Blue Jays playoff odds
A lot has changed for the Blue Jays since Opening Day.
Shortly before the season began, Toronto had +220 odds to make the playoffs, which equated to an implied probability of 31.25%.
Now, at -500 odds, the Jays’ implied playoff probability is 83.3%.
Here’s how that compares with the Blue Jays’ playoff odds — entering July 18 — as projected by some notable sites:
- FanGraphs: 83.5%
- Baseball Prospectus: 89.9%
- Baseball Reference: 72.1%
Baseball Reference has been the lowest on the Jays from the start, but even it has a fairly strong projection in Toronto’s favour.
The other two sites are actually more bullish on the Blue Jays than the odds indicate.
If you want reasons for skepticism, they’re easy to find:
- The AL East is the deepest division in baseball. Four of five teams have 50+ wins and are either in a playoff spot or within 1.5 games of one.
- Toronto leads the division now, but the team is only 5.5 games out of sinking to fourth place.
- The Jays’ +17 run differential is tiny for a team that’s 14 games over .500. There are seven AL teams with a better run differential than that.
Still, Toronto has banked enough wins that it would take a pretty thorough collapse for the postseason to slip away. And the good news is that we haven’t seen the best version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. yet.
Vladdy has an .818 OPS entering the second half, which is identical to where he was at last year’s stoppage.
Then, in the second half of 2024, he posted a 1.128 OPS after the break. Don’t count out a similar second-half surge from the five-time all-star.
2025 win total odds
As you’d expect, the Blue Jays’ strong showing this year has moved the goalposts for their win total projection.
Prior to Opening Day, Toronto’s over/under was set at 80.5 wins. Now it’s eight wins north of that.
FanGraphs projects 88.2 wins for the Jays, while Baseball Prospectus has them slated for 89.7 wins.
According to Tankathon, Toronto has the 10th-toughest strength of schedule remaining.
Among its tougher matchups are road series vs. the MLB-leading Detroit Tigers (four games) and the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers (three games).
Toronto also plays six more games vs. the Yankees.
To finish with 89 wins, the Blue Jays need to go 34-32 (.515) down the stretch. Based on their current record, they’re playing at a 92-win pace.
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