The Toronto Blue Jays are now in a dog fight to win the AL East with four games to play.
The latest: Toronto became the first AL team to lock up a postseason spot on Sunday. But after a pair of losses to the Boston Red Sox this week, combined with a pair of wins by the New York Yankees, the Jays’ divisional lead has vanished.
Check out our Blue Jays AL East odds as of Sept. 25, 2025.
Blue Jays AL East odds
Note: Updated odds that reflect Wednesday’s results are unavailable as of Thursday morning.
I’m sure Jays fans would prefer a less stressful end to the season, but this is what it’s all about, right?
Toronto has already well exceeded its preseason win projection and remains in a strong spot to lock up the division despite its recent 1-6 speed bump.
- The Jays hold head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Yankees and Red Sox.
- FanGraphs gives Toronto a 54.1% chance of winning the AL East entering play on Sept. 25.
- With four games to play, Toronto still controls its own destiny for the AL East crown.
Toronto’s final stretch includes one game against both the Boston Red Sox and three against the Tampa Bay Rays, with the former still technically having a chance to win the division (0.1% chance, per FanGraphs).
The Jays are 7-5 against Boston this year and are slated to start Louis Varland in Thursday’s series finale.
New York, meanwhile, has one more game against the dreadful Chicago White Sox, followed by three games against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Yankees recently took three of four from the O’s at Camden Yards (Sept. 18-21), and the White Sox have an AL-worst 58 wins.
Toronto is still in pole position, but its margin of error is gone now.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.