Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills visit Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions in the most anticipated Week 15 matchup.
The pregame narrative: Allen is putting Buffalo on his back and I expect him to lead the charge with the offence fully healthy. Bet on the Bills quarterback to post gaudy numbers across the board while also finding paydirt. On the other side, I expect David Montgomery to have a big game as a receiver.
Check out my Bills vs. Lions prop picks for Dec. 15.
Bills vs. Lions Week 15 prop picks
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Best Bet: Allen over 300.5 passing and rushing yards (-113)
Allen is posting video game numbers for the Bills.
The quarterback did an absolute number on the Rams in a losing effort last week. Allen threw for 342 yards and added 82 more on the ground in the loss.
These types of performances are becoming fairly commonplace for the MVP favourite, as Allen has topped 250 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games.
Detroit is a plus matchup for Allen both through the air and on the ground. The Lions are ceding the ninth-most passing yards per contest to opposing QBs (240.8) and the seventh-most rushing yards per game (24.8).
They’ve struggled at limiting mobile QBs on the ground, especially. Here’s how some notable dual-threat passers have done against Detroit:
- Kyler Murray – 5 carries, 45 yards
- Anthony Richardson – 10 carries, 61 yards
- Caleb Williams – 4 carries, 39 yards
Only Murray (444) has more rushing yards than Allen this season (416) on the list of aforementioned QBs. I expect Buffalo’s leading man to do it all again on Sunday.
Key stat: Allen has topped this total in three of his last four games and five of his last seven.
Quick picks
Allen to score a TD (+102): I’ll gladly take this prop at this price.
Plus-money odds for Allen to score a touchdown are too good to ignore. The Bills quarterback has found the end zone in four consecutive contests.
He’s not just scoring once a game, however, he’s typically making multiple trips. Allen has eight total touchdowns in his last four outings.
Allen has nine rushing touchdowns this season which is second among all QBs.
The game total for this contest is sitting at 54.5 points. There’ll likely be lots of touchdowns, and Allen should contribute with at least one.
Montgomery over 16.5 receiving yards (-114): Bettors and football fans like to think of Montgomery as the bruising, between-the-tackles back for the Lions. But the veteran rusher is a lot more than that.
Montgomery is showing off his receiving chops in recent outings. The Detroit tailback has topped this total in six consecutive contests, averaging 28.7 receiving yards per game during this stretch.
Buffalo presents an attractive matchup for Montgomery, too. The Bills are ceding the third most receiving yards per game (44.5) to running backs.
Montgomery has topped this total in 10 of 13 outings this campaign.
Picks made at 2:39 p.m. ET 12/14/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.