One running back and a veteran tight end make up my AFC championship TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Travis Kelce was in vintage playoff form last week and I’m backing him to score as the Kansas City Chiefs get one step closer to three-peating. I’m also eyeing James Cook to score for the Buffalo Bills.
Check out my favourite Bills vs. Chiefs TD picks for this weekend’s AFC championship game.
Bills vs. Chiefs TD picks
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Best bet: Kelce anytime TD (+110): The all-time great tight end had a down season by his standards, recording his career-low in receiving yards (823) with just three TDs.
But I chalk most of his struggles up to a slow start. Since Week 8, he’s been cooking:
- 97 targets
- 69 receptions
- 598 yards
The end zone has been hard to find but it is worth noting that all three TDs came after Week 8.
Kelce also strives in the playoffs. Last week, he had seven receptions for 117 yards and a TD against the Houston Texans.
Key stat: Since the 2021-22 season, the tight end has 11 scores in as many postseason games, going 9-2 against this wager.
Quick pick
Cook anytime TD (+100): On the other side, I’m backing Cook at plus money.
Despite not scoring last week, the 1,000-yard rusher was very reliable against this wager all season long. He scored in 13 out of 18 games including the playoffs.
In two postseason games, Cook is still getting a ton of volume out of the backfield.
- Vs. Denver: 23 carries, 120 yards, TD.
- Vs. Baltimore: 17 carries, 67 yards.
Kansas City is good against the run, allowing the eight-fewest ground yards per game (101.8) — but Buffalo’s offence has proven to be matchup-proof heading into the AFC championship.
Cook had two TDs in the Bills’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs.
Picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET on 01/23/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.