In the second leg of this week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Chicago Bears take on the Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: When these teams met last year, absurdity struck, as Washington walked off with a successful tip-drill Hail Mary for the win. Caleb Williams was atrocious in that game, but I expect a more efficient and productive showing from him this time around.
Check out my Bears vs. Commanders same-game parlay predictions for Week 6, featuring Williams and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Bears vs. Commanders SGP predictions
SGP: Williams over 19.5 completions | Croskey-Merritt over 70.5 rush yards | Bears +10.5 (+320)
Williams over 19.5 completions (-134): In his homecoming to the DMV area last season, Williams put in a brutal performance against the Commanders. He completed just 10 of 24 passes for 131 yards and zero TDs.
I’m sure he’ll want to perform better in the do-over, and I expect Bears head coach Ben Johnson to put his young QB in a position to succeed.
- Williams has the sixth-highest expected completion percentage in the NFL (68.8%), per RBSDM.com. His actual completion percentage (63.3%) lags behind, but that means there’s room for positive regression.
- The Commanders have allowed an 84.6 passer rating so far this season, per Rotowire. That ranks in the 35th percentile in the NFL.
- More specifically, Washington’s linebackers have allowed a 134.5 passer rating (third percentile), which should translate to a lot of open receivers running underneath.
Williams is 2-2 vs. this prop, landing on exactly 19 completions in both unders.
For his career, Williams is 12-9 vs. this prop while averaging 20.6 completions.
Monday Night Football SGP picks
Croskey-Merritt over 70.5 rushing yards (-118): The seventh-round rookie tailback known colloquially as “Bill” leads NFL running backs in success rate (72.1%) and yards per carry (6.6).
His usage has been frustratingly inconsistent, but he put up monster numbers last Sunday:
- 14 carries
- 111 rushing yards
- 2 catches
- 39 receiving yards
- 2 total TDs
Hopefully, the Commanders allow him to build off a boom week. The matchup is an enticing one for him, too.
The Bears’ run defence ranks 26th in success rate and 22nd in EPA. Each of Chicago’s past three opponents has had a tailback clear this yardage total.
Bears +10.5 (-250): Chicago was trounced by the Detroit Lions in Week 2, but otherwise, the Bears have held their own this season.
The Bears entered their bye week coming off a pair of straight-up wins as underdogs. They also fell a field goal shy of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.
While Chicago is rested, Washington has had to travel for six consecutive weeks (i.e. no byes or back-to-back home games).
The Commanders earned a fluky 18-15 win over the Bears last year, meaning they weren’t even close to covering this number.
Bears vs. Commanders predictions made at 12:10 p.m. on 10/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.