The fourth and final El Clasico this season headlines Sunday’s La Liga action.
The pregame narrative: Barcelona is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Champions League semifinal, but needs to refocus on the job at hand: winning La Liga. Four points separate Barca from Madrid in the table with four games to play.
Check out the best Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks featuring Raphinha for the match on May 11.
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks
Best Bet: Barcelona to win (+100)
Barcelona has won all three meetings between these historic rivals this season:
- October 4 (La Liga): 4-0
- January 11 (Spanish Supercopa final): 5-2
- April 25 (Copa del Rey final): 3-2 AET
The last victory required extra time, but Barcelona largely dominated play. It held 60% possession, out-shot Real Madrid 22-15 (9-7 SOT), and generated 1.85 xG to Madrid’s 0.918.
Given the previous two results — and the fact that this is being played in Barcelona — I’m happy to back the hosts to win.
Hansi Flick’s side just crashed out of the Champions League after losing a nail-biting 7-6 tie to Inter Milan, but the team’s offence showed plenty of promise without Robert Lewandowski.
The Polish striker was subbed on late in the second leg, which is a promising sign that he’ll be ready to play big minutes against Madrid.
As for Madrid, it is dealing with a few key injuries.
Defensive midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and centre back Antonio Rudiger are both out. Madrid has struggled to keep the ball out of its net this season, especially in this fixture.
Key stat: Madrid has conceded multiple goals in seven of its last 10 games.
Go to full La Liga betting markets.
Quick pick
Lewandowski to score (-120): There is some risk here given Lewandowski’s fitness, but Rotowire projects the Polish striker to be in Barcelona’s starting XI on Sunday.
And when Lewandowski’s on the pitch, he’s been unstoppable:
- He has 40 goals for Barcelona across all competitions, scoring in both matches against Real Madrid (three total goals).
- Lewandowski leads La Liga in goals (24), expected goals (24.2), goals per 90 (0.92), and big chances missed (20), according to FotMob.
The best goalscorer of this generation being priced at plus money in a game like this is too good for me to ignore.
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 05/10/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.