Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.
The Buffalo Bills kick off their season at home against a plucky Arizona Cardinals squad.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s Super Bowl quest begins Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals have improved from a season ago, but the Bills should still be able to cover a teased down spread. The over on the total and James Cook’s rushing and receiving yards prop round out this ticket.
Check out our Cardinals vs. Bills predictions for Sunday, Sept. 8.
The Bills enter this season with a very different offence. Out are Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, in are Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman who join Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in this passing attack.
It might take the unit some time to adjust, but it should be able to move the ball against a dreadful Arizona defence. The Cardinals allowed the second-most points per game (26.8) in the NFL last season and didn’t do much to improve the defence in the offseason.
Josh Allen is still under centre and he’s proven to be matchup-proof throughout his career. The Buffalo QB should be able to sling it and outpace a weak Arizona defensive side.
Arizona’s offence, while very exciting, could take some time to gel too as it revolves around rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. who enters his first pro game.
Other parlay picks
Over 46.5 points (-120): Arizona’s defence didn’t make many noteworthy additions but Buffalo’s defence lost some key players this offseason.
Leonard Floyd, Tyrel Dodson, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde all departed and Buffalo is mainly hoping for others on the roster to step into their roles.
While the defence should improve as the season rolls along, there could be some growing pains in Week 1.
The Cardinals should be able to score a healthy amount of points with Kyler Murray, Harrison, and Trey McBride leading what’ll likely be a solid offensive trio.
The offences are arguably the two best units in this game and should be able to get this over the total.
Cook over 78.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): This shapes up to be a really nice spot for Cook.
Opponents gashed the Cardinals on the ground as they allowed the most rushing yards per game (143.2) a season ago. Additionally, they tied for ceding the second-most yards per rush (4.7).
That plays perfectly for Cook, one of the NFL’s most efficient runners. The Buffalo running back is averaging 5.0 yards per carry since entering the league.
His abilities as a receiver shouldn’t be understated, either. Cook turned 44 receptions into 445 receiving yards in 2023.
There’s a lot of jargon and sports betting terms that can be overwhelming to people who aren’t familiar with it. You may know some of the jargon, but perhaps there are some terms you’ve never heard of.
Don’t worry: We’re here to help. It never hurts to brush up on your sports betting linguistics whether you’re a sharp or a square (see below for definitions).
Here are the need-to-know sports betting terms you should make yourself familiar with.
Glossary of key sports betting terms
Action: A bettor will have action on a game when they’ve placed a bet on it.
Against the spread (ATS): Betting a game with a point spread. If you bet the Bills to cover a 4.5-point spread as favourites, they’ll need to win by at least five points for your bet to be a winner.
Alternative line/total: Sportsbooks will offer other lines aside from the featured point spread and game total. If the projected total for a football game is 45.5 points, you might be able to wager on alternate totals such as 48.5 or 42.5.
Backdoor cover: When a team comes from behind late in a game to cover the spread.
Bad beat: An unfortunate loss to a bet that appeared destined to win. For example, you bet on the Bills to cover as -7.5 favourites and they’re winning in the final minute of the game, 24-14 … but then the opposition kicks a last-second field goal and Buffalo fails to cover the spread.
Bankroll: The amount of money you have in your sports betting account. If you create an account with NorthStar Bets and deposit $100, you’ll have a $100 bankroll.
Cash out: Accepting an offer from a sportsbook for a bet that hasn’t reached a final result. By cashing out, you’re settling the bet early.
Chalk: The overwhelmingly popular pick for a sporting event.
Closing line: The line for an event when the sportsbook stops accepting bets (generally at the start time of the event).
Closing line value (CLV): The value of a bet relative to the closing line. If you bet on the Bills to win at -115, and the line closes later at -155, you’d have some positive CLV.
Cover: Refers to the result of a successful point spread bet. If the Raptors are 6.5-point underdogs but only lose by four points, they covered the point spread.
Even money: Even odds, equivalent to 50/50 or +100. You’ll earn double what you wager if your ticket is successful.
Favourite: The team or player expected to win. They will have a minus sign (-) before their moneyline odds (-125, for example) and/or point spread (-4.5).
Futures: A bet that requires a longer period of time to determine the result. League champions, division titles and MVP awards are common types of futures bets.
Handicap: The point spread number. Whatever the number is set at, whether it’s 3.5, 7.5, 10.5, and so on, is the number of points that a favourite is expected to win by.
Handle: The amount of money wagered by bettors on a certain event.
Hedge: Most commonly done with parlays or future bets, a hedge is when you bet the opposite side of your original wager. If you bet on a six-game NFL parlay and the first five legs of the wager win, you could bet on the opposing team of the final leg to hedge your bet.
Hook: Refers to the 0.5 listed with most point spreads. If you bet the Bills -3.5 on the point spread, the half point is the hook. In that instance, if the Bills win by exactly three points, it means that Buffalo bettors got “hooked” by that extra 0.5 points.
Implied probability: The likelihood of a bet winning based on the odds for the event. For example, a bet with +100 odds has a 50% implied probability.
In-game betting: Bets placed after the game has already started. This can be on the moneyline, point spread, over/under, props, etc. Also known as live betting.
Juice/vig: The cut the sportsbook takes for using their services. Winning a bet on a $100 wager at -110 odds would return $190.91. That’s a 10% vig, which is essentially the tax you pay to the operator.
Laying the points: Betting on the favourite to win. If you back the Raptors to cover a 6.5-point spread as favourites, you are laying the points with Toronto.
Live odds: The odds of a game that is in progress. Live odds can drastically fluctuate based on what happens at any given moment.
Long shot: A bet that has a low chance of winning.
Middle: When a bettor has action on both sides of a game and can win both bets. For example, if you bet over 45.5 points and under 55.5 points, any total from 46 to 55 would win both bets.
Moneyline: A type of bet where you wager on the winner of the game. Each team receives its own set of odds, and a successful moneyline wager involves backing the team that wins.
Off the board: When an event’s betting markets are unavailable to wager on. Common events that trigger OTB markets are the start of a game or key injury news.
Opening line: The line for an event when it’s first listed at a sportsbook.
Over: A bet that requires a player, team, or game to score or accumulate more than the listed total.
Over/under: Known as O/U for short, as well as the total. Sportsbooks determine the number of projected combined points for a game, and bettors decide whether the clubs will go over or under that total. It’s also used when betting on player props. Player props give you the option to bet the over or under on categories such as points, receiving yards, shots on goal, and rebounds.
Parlay: A wager that consists of two or more bets tied to one ticket. All outcomes of the parlay have to win in order for the bet to be a winner.
Pick’em: When neither team is favoured on the point spread.
Point spread: A number established by sportsbooks that a team has to cover. For a spread of -7.5, which you would see in sports like the NFL and NBA, the (-) indicates the favourite and means the team would have to win by eight points or more. The underdog spread would be +7.5, and that team could cover by either winning outright or losing by seven or fewer points.
Props: Bets that aren’t tied to the outcome of a contest but rather specific events that occur during a game. Player props allow you to wager on individual production, such as the total points or yards a player will accumulate in a contest. Game props allow you to make bets on a number of different events, such as the highest-scoring period in a hockey game.
Puck line: The standard handicap set for NHL betting, which is usually 1.5 goals. That means you can either bet on a favourite to cover the puck line at -1.5 or back the underdog at +1.5. This is hockey’s version of the point spread.
Push: When a bet results in a tie. If you bet the Raptors to cover a 4-point spread and they win by exactly four points, that is a push. Your initial wager will be reimbursed.
Run line: The standard handicap set for MLB betting, which is usually 1.5 runs. That means you can either bet on a favourite to cover the run line at -1.5 or back the underdog at +1.5. This is baseball’s version of the point spread.
The Toronto Blue Jays must win a game by two-plus runs to cover as a run-line favourite. Photo by Jayne-Kamin-Oncea/AP.
Same-game parlay: Combining two or more wagers from a single event into one bet.
Sharp: Considered to be a smart and successful sports bettor.
Sportsbook: The operator that you place bets with, deposit funds with, and collect winnings from. NorthStar Bets is an example of an online sportsbook.
Square: A casual bettor who wagers on the public or popular side of a bet.
Straight up/SU: Refers to the winner of a match. A straight-up bet is placed on an outright winner and doesn’t involve a point spread.
Sweat: A bet that comes down to the last second or final play.
Taking the points: Betting on the underdog. If you back the Bills to cover a +3.5 spread, you are taking the points with Buffalo.
Teaser: Buying points from a sportsbook for a parlay. Sportsbooks typically award six points for a football teaser and four for basketball, but there must be at least two legs to the bet. If the Raptors are +4 underdogs, you can add them to a teaser at +8 (with greater juice).
Total: See over/under.
Under: A bet that requires a player, team, or game to score/accumulate less than the listed total.
Underdog: The team or player expected to lose. The underdog will have a plus (+) sign before their moneyline odds and/or point spread.
Unit: Refers to the base amount of money you place on a wager. If your base wager is $100, that would be one unit.
The latest: The two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are back in the season-opening slot on Thursday. They host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch from last year’s AFC title game. Elsewhere, the Buffalo Bills welcome the Arizona Cardinals while the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers close out the slate.
Check out the latest NFL Week 1 odds below.
NFL Week 1 odds
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The Chiefs’ road to a three-peat begins at home against the Ravens. Kansas City added to its wide receiver core, signing Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy (though Brown might not be available for Week 1 due to a sternoclavicular joint dislocation). Baltimore made a big splash in free agency, adding Derrick Henry to an already dynamic offence.
The NFL goes to Brazil for the first time when the Packers and Eagles collide on Friday of opening week. Philadelphia added running back Saquon Barkley to its lethal offensive attack, while Green Bay aims to build on its strong second half of last season with the addition of Josh Jacobs.
Buffalo’s season ended familiarly — with a loss to the Chiefs. Entering 2024, the new-look Bills no longer employ Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer all departing this offseason. Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman highlight Josh Allen’s newest receiving options.
Chicago used the first overall pick in the draft on Caleb Williams and he’ll get the start in Week 1 against Tennessee. The Bears also added Rome Odunze in the draft, and Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift in free agency. Will Levis enters the season as the starting QB for the Titans.
The biggest favourites of the week are the Bengals (-8.5), who host the Patriots in Cincinnati. Last season, the Bengals went 6-2 ATS as home favourites.
Miami had the No. 2 scoring offence last year, but the over was only 4-5 in its home games last year because expectations were sky high. The Dolphins host the Jaguars in Week 1 and the 49-point over/under is the highest on the schedule.
The US Open Round of 16 concludes with some excellent matches on Monday.
The pregame narrative: Jannik Sinner and Jessica Pegula have been sensational on the hardcourts this year. I’m picking both players to win in straight sets. Tomas Machac isn’t a household name, but the tennis star is playing well and is my pick to keep it close against Jack Draper.
Check out my top US Open predictions and best bets for Sept. 2.
Backing Pegula on this surface is a smart call for bettors.
She’s been excellent all year long, and especially lately. She’s 23-6 on the hardcourts in 2024 and dominated in the lead-up to the US Open.
Pegula won at Toronto before finishing second at Cincinnati. She beat plenty of top contenders en route to those stellar finishes, including her upcoming opponent, Diana Shnaider.
Shnaider lost to Pegula in straight sets in Toronto, 6-4, 6-3, in a match where Pegula completely neutralized Shnaider’s serve.
The young Russian fired home zero aces to four double faults in the loss. It was a surprise considering she’s 48th among all competitors in aces (85) this year, according to WTAtennis.com.
I don’t expect Shnaider to fare much better with her serve in this contest. Pegula has only conceded three aces across three matches at the US Open, meaning her return game is in peak form.
Key stat: Pegula has won eight of her last 13 matches in straight sets.
Other US Open picks
Sinner -2.5 sets (+120): Sinner is the first name that should come to mind when discussing competitors dominating on the hardcourts.
Winning consistently on this surface takes a proficient all-around game. Sinner has just that and is peaking at the right time.
The Italian ranks fifth in serve rating (294.0) and seventh in return rating (153.9) among all competitors, according to ATPtour.com. His serve has been sensational at this tournament, firing off 29 aces across three matches.
He’s won nine consecutive sets at Flushing Meadows, dropping more than two games just twice during this stretch, which is a bad sign for Tommy Paul.
Paul has played well en route to an appearance in the Round of 16 and is 18-8 on the hardcourts in 2024, but this contest represents a significant upgrade in class for the American.
Paul has beaten Lorenzo Sonego (world no. 48), Max Purcell (97) and Gabriel Diallo (143). Facing off against the world’s best player is a much taller task.
Sinner won the last meeting between these two, beating Paul in straight sets on this surface in Toronto last year.
Machac +1.5 sets (+106): Machac is an underdog in this contest but the head-to-head record between him and Draper suggests otherwise.
The Czech has won all three meetings against Draper, beating him on clay, the hardcourts and even carpet. Their latest encounter was earlier this year at the Geneva Open, a match Machac won in three sets.
Machac and Draper boast similar records on this surface, with the former being 17-9 and the latter entering at 15-8. Machac has the more impressive win at the US Open, disposing of world no. 16 Sebastian Korda in the second round.
This wager doesn’t require Machac to win, he just needs to win two sets. With the head-to-head record heavily favouring him, he’s my plus-money pick.
US Open tennis predictions made at 11:50 a.m. on 09/01/24
The Toronto Blue Jays search for a series victory over the Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence exploded in Saturday’s win and I expect the Blue Jays’ bats to have some runs left in them. I also like Minnesota’s offence to have a day, which is why I’m wagering on the over and Twins run line. Thirdly, Bailey Ober should work deep into this contest.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins on Sept. 1.
Offence isn’t something bettors have typically seen in Blue Jays games this season but there’s been a recent uptick.
Toronto’s 15-run output on Saturday isn’t the lone example of this. The Blue Jays have gone over this total in eight of their last 13 matches. Today’s pitching duel should provide another higher-scoring affair.
Yariel Rodriguez gets the ball for Toronto and his numbers aren’t blowing anybody away. He has a 4.82 ERA and 4.50 FIP this season and both those marks are on the rise.
Rodriguez owns a brutal 9.42 ERA and 6.80 FIP across his last three starts. The over on this total cashed in each of those outings.
This hasn’t been a banner year for the typically strong Ober. The Twins pitcher combines a 4.06 ERA with a 3.87 FIP and is coming off his worst start of the season. Ober allowed nine runs and lasted just two innings against the Atlanta Braves on Monday.
Minnesota has gone over this number in each of his last two starts.
Bet on this game to feature plenty of offence.
Key stat: The Twins have gone over this total in three of their last five games.
Quick pick
Twins -1.5 (+110): I expect this contest to feature plenty of runs but it’s the Twins that should emerge victorious.
Rodriguez’s recent struggles are a big reason for this fade. Toronto has lost each of his last six starts, failing to cover the run line in his last two.
The righty’s biggest problem is his inability to pitch strikes. According to Baseball Savant, he has a 16th percentile walk rate and 29th percentile chase rate.
Ober has been inconsistent but the Twins have still covered this spread in four of his last seven outings.
Ober over 17.5 outs (-141): There’s a decent amount of juice to pay here but I like this wager for several reasons.
Firstly, Ober consistently delivers six-plus innings of work. He’s pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 outings.
He’s beat this mark in 16 of his 25 starts this season.
Secondly, Minnesota will likely lean on Ober in this contest after Saturday’s shelling. The Twins used five different pitchers in Saturday’s blowout loss, and would certainly like to have Ober eat innings in this contest.
Frontrunners need not apply. I’m looking for the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
The pregame narrative: None of the teams on this list care much for a Kansas City Chiefs threepeat. Patrick Mahomes’ new sponsorship? Travis Kelce’s summer job as Taylor Swift’s background dancer? Turn that noise down. I’m looking at a trio of squads that are sleeping giants entering this campaign.
Check out the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
It’s difficult to wrap our heads around how much better Atlanta is now than it was a season ago.
Let’s paint a picture. The Falcons entered last year with Desmond Ridder as their starting quarterback and Arthur Smith as their head coach. That duo predictably finished among the league’s worst in points per game (18.9) as the passing attack had as many touchdowns as interceptions (17).
The upgrade from Ridder to Kirk Cousins is seismic while first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is one of the best backups in the league.
Fellow first-round picks, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, should be able to reach their potential with stability under centre.
The defence is better after recent transactions brought Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon to town, filling in crucial gaps. Head coach and ex-Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris should get the most out of this unit, too.
And then there’s the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning NFC South champs and return mostly the same, but they barely squeaked into the playoffs a year ago.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are the epitome of average while anything but last is an improvement for the Carolina Panthers.
A winnable division and the easiest schedule in all of football, according to Sharp Football, makes this the year to wager on the Falcons.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a difficult team to figure out. I was in on the Jaguars in 2022 when they started 3-7 before winning six of their final seven and securing an AFC South championship.
I was out in 2023 where they started 8-3 before losing five of their final six and finishing the campaign 9-8 and out of a playoff spot.
This kind of streakiness begs the question: Who are the real Jaguars?
Jacksonville likely more closely resembles the team that started strong than the one that fizzled out last year.
Injuries played a big part in the squad’s second-half collapse. Trevor Lawrence was severely dinged up, earning injury designations for a knee bruise, an ankle sprain, a concussion and an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder.
A healthy Lawrence and an improved supporting cast should make a difference. Calvin Ridley never meshed well in Duval, but offseason additions Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis join Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in an offence that suddenly is rich in receiving options.
The defence is sneakily loaded with Arik Armstead coming to a unit that also features Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Foyesade Oluokon.
All those ready to crown the Houston Texans as your “Sleeper” team need to pump the brakes and get a little more creative. These are the same Texans that needed a fourth-down stop to beat Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 just to make the playoffs.
Sure, they beat Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. But Houston scored a measly 10 points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.
Don’t be surprised if the Jags win this division and go on a run in the playoffs.
It’s not a sleeper pick if everybody sees it coming.
And nobody is looking to Tennessee as a Super Bowl contender in 2024.
There’s a world where the Titans take everybody by storm and win it all this season and this is how it looks.
Will Levis is the real deal. The big-armed quarterback thrives under ex-Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, as the offence shifts from run-heavy to pass-heavy.
DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley proved they’ve still got it in them. Both these receivers have shown they can be among the best at their position, and a return to form makes this a dangerous duo.
L’Jarius Sneed clamps down opposing top wideouts. The stand-out corner operated on an island for the Kansas City Chiefs and was one of the big splashes the squad made this offseason.
Additionally, a sophomore slump from C.J. Stroud and the Texans wouldn’t hurt.
If all this seems unlikely to you, that’s because it is. But I’m sold enough on the Titans to take the bait and sprinkle at these odds.
Frontrunners need not apply. I’m looking for the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
The pregame narrative: None of the teams on this list care much for a Kansas City Chiefs threepeat. Patrick Mahomes’ new sponsorship? Travis Kelce’s summer job as Taylor Swift’s background dancer? Turn that noise down. I’m looking at a trio of squads that are sleeping giants entering this campaign.
Check out the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
Super Bowl sleeper picks
Atlanta Falcons (+2,500)
It’s difficult to wrap our heads around how much better Atlanta is now than it was a season ago.
Let’s paint a picture. The Falcons entered last year with Desmond Ridder as their starting quarterback and Arthur Smith as their head coach. That duo predictably finished among the league’s worst in points per game (18.9) as the passing attack had as many touchdowns as interceptions (17).
The upgrade from Ridder to Kirk Cousins is seismic while first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is one of the best backups in the league.
Fellow first-round picks, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, should be able to reach their potential with stability under centre.
The defence is better after recent transactions brought Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon to town, filling in crucial gaps. Head coach and ex-Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris should get the most out of this unit, too.
And then there’s the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning NFC South champs and return mostly the same, but they barely squeaked into the playoffs a year ago.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are the epitome of average while anything but last is an improvement for the Carolina Panthers.
A winnable division and the easiest schedule in all of football, according to Sharp Football, makes this the year to wager on the Falcons.
Digging deeper
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4,500)
I’m somewhat of a Jaguar whisperer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a difficult team to figure out. I was in on the Jaguars in 2022 when they started 3-7 before winning six of their final seven and securing an AFC South championship.
I was out in 2023 where they started 8-3 before losing five of their final six and finishing the campaign 9-8 and out of a playoff spot.
This kind of streakiness begs the question: Who are the real Jaguars?
Jacksonville likely more closely resembles the team that started strong than the one that fizzled out last year.
Injuries played a big part in the squad’s second-half collapse. Trevor Lawrence was severely dinged up, earning injury designations for a knee bruise, an ankle sprain, a concussion and an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder.
A healthy Lawrence and an improved supporting cast should make a difference. Calvin Ridley never meshed well in Duval, but offseason additions Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis join Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in an offence that suddenly is rich in receiving options.
The defence is sneakily loaded with Arik Armstead coming to a unit that also features Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Foyesade Oluokon.
All those ready to crown the Houston Texans as your “Sleeper” team need to pump the brakes and get a little more creative. These are the same Texans that needed a fourth-down stop to beat Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 just to make the playoffs.
Sure, they beat Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. But Houston scored a measly 10 points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.
Don’t be surprised if the Jags win this division and go on a run in the playoffs.
Super Bowl sleeper picks: Bottom of the Barrel
Tennessee Titans (+15,000)
It’s not a sleeper pick if everybody sees it coming.
And nobody is looking to Tennessee as a Super Bowl contender in 2024.
There’s a world where the Titans take everybody by storm and win it all this season and this is how it looks.
Will Levis is the real deal. The big-armed quarterback thrives under ex-Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, as the offence shifts from run-heavy to pass-heavy.
DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley proved they’ve still got it in them. Both these receivers have shown they can be among the best at their position, and a return to form makes this a dangerous duo.
L’Jarius Sneed clamps down opposing top wideouts. The stand-out corner operated on an island for the Kansas City Chiefs and was one of the big splashes the squad made this offseason.
Additionally, a sophomore slump from C.J. Stroud and the Texans wouldn’t hurt.
If all this seems unlikely to you, that’s because it is. But I’m sold enough on the Titans to take the bait and sprinkle at these odds.
Leylah Fernandez meets a familiar foe in Anastasia Potapova at the US Open.
The pregame narrative: This first-round clash marks the third time these two have met in 2024 and the fifth time overall. The head-to-head history is one-sided, but I expect Potapova and Fernandez to go the distance.
Check out our Potapova vs. Fernandez odds and best bet for their US Open match on Aug. 27.
Fernandez has dominated Potapova, there’s no sugar coating it.
The two have met four times (twice in 2024) and the Canadian has won each contest. Three of those occurred on clay while the other was on the hardcourts at the Mexican Open.
The gap between these competitors, however, is closing. Potapova won her first set against Fernandez in their most recent match, a three-set loss at the Internationaux de Strasbourg.
She also enters this contest in finer form. Potapova advanced to the semifinals in her most recent tournament, Tennis in the Land, before losing to the eventual tourney champ McCartney Kessler in three sets.
Fernandez’s run at Tennis in the Land wasn’t as impressive. She lost in the first round to world No. 103 Ana Bogdan.
A big reason why I expect this match to go back and forth is because both have sporadic serves. Fernandez ranks 38th in aces (91) and 16th in double faults (173). Potapova is 35th in aces (98) and 12th in double faults (196).
That’s played out in Fernandez’s recent matches. The Canadian fired home three aces to 11 double faults in her loss to Bogdan.
Four of Fernandez’s last five matches have gone to three sets as a result. I expect a similar type of contest to unfold at the US Open.
Key stat: Potapova and Fernandez have identical break points converted percentages (43.7%).
Denis Shapovalov aims to finish Grand Slam season strong against Botic van de Zandschulp.
The pregame narrative: Neither of these competitors is having a great season. Shapovalov enters this contest as a heavy favourite, but it’s difficult to place that amount of confidence in the erratic Canadian. Instead, I’m backing van de Zandschulp in a match that I expect to be tightly contested.
Check out our Shapovalov vs. van de Zandschulp odds and best bet for their US Open match on Aug. 27.
Shapovalov vs. van de Zandschulp US Open odds
Go to full Shapovalov vs. van de Zandschulp betting markets.
Shapovalov is a commanding -315 moneyline favourite despite not showing well for most of 2024.
He’s an underwhelming 17-20 overall on the campaign and is 9-11 on the hardcourts in 2024. His struggles on this surface are nothing new, either, as he finished 2023 with a 6-7 record.
Any reason for optimism he provided earlier this month has been shot down. The Canadian advanced to the fourth round of the Citi Open while most of the world’s top tennis talents were competing at the Olympics, but lost in the first round at the National Bank Open in Montreal.
His inconsistencies make him difficult to trust in this spot.
And that’s really what this wager boils down to. It’s certainly not an endorsement of van de Zandschulp who’s been equally sporadic.
The Dutch tennis player has bounced between Challenger and ATP events this year. He owns a 22-24 record this season and is 5-10 on the hardcourts.
van de Zandschulp has, however, won four of his last six matches on this surface.
These two competitors squared off at the Indian Wells Open earlier this year. Shapovalov won the match in straight sets, but I expect a closer contest at Flushing Meadows.
Key stat: Shapovalov is tied for the most double faults per match (6.8) of any player, according to ATPtour.com.
Felix Auger-Aliassime’s run at the US Open starts with a match against Jakub Mensik.
The pregame narrative: Auger-Aliassime’s see-saw season enters the year’s final Grand Slam event. He battles an upstart Mensik in a match that should be entertaining. The former, however, should be able to beat the latter in convincing fashion.
Check out our Mensik vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and best bet for their US Open match on Aug. 27.
Auger-Aliassime’s record on the hardcourt always gives me some pause when betting him on the surface.
He’s been downright bad on the outdoor hardcourts in 2024, holding a losing record (6-7). His recent results on the surface are somewhat encouraging, though, as he advanced to the third round at the Cincinnati Open.
He picked up a commanding win over world No. 8 Casper Ruud at the event and was victimized by one of the most controversial (mis)calls of the year in a loss to Jack Draper in the following match.
That could provide the Canadian with a little motivation. Even if it doesn’t, he should be able to beat Mensik.
The young Czech is having a solid season. The 18-year-old tennis star is 27-18 overall and is 18-9 on the outdoor hardcourts.
Most of his success on this surface occurred earlier in the season, however, and he hasn’t been as sharp as he gears up for this event.
Mensik failed to advance through qualification at the National Bank Open and the Cincinnati Open.
Auger-Aliassime’s strong all-around game should be too much for Mensik to handle. He ranks 29th in serve rating (276.1) and 31st in return rating among all tour competitors (139.0) over the last 52 weeks, according to ATPtour.com.
I expect Mensik to steal a set, but Auger-Aliassime should win comfortably in this contest.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime beat Mensik (6-1, 1-0 ret.) in their lone head-to-head meeting which occurred at the Madrid Open in April 2024.
