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Jaguars vs. Bills Week 3 prop picks: Back trio of Jags on Monday Night Football

The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo is a sizeable moneyline favourite in prime time. With Jacksonville likely playing from behind, I expect it to finish the game with some solid offensive totals. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk should lead the way.

Check out my Jaguars vs. Bills prop picks for Sept. 23.

Jaguars vs. Bills prop picks

Full Monday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Lawrence over 16.5 rushing yards (-114)

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Expect Lawrence to lean on his legs in a game where the Jags will likely be playing catch up.

The Jacksonville QB really hasn’t been able to prove that he can take over games by sitting in the pocket. His career record of 20-32 illustrates that there have been far more downs than ups in his four NFL seasons.

Lawrence is getting to the point where he can’t afford to play a safe game if he expects to live up to his lofty five-year, $275 million contract extension.

Injuries to Buffalo’s linebacker core mean the team likely can’t dedicate the same amount of speed and attention to opposing QBs. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are both sidelined in this contest.

The Bills’ pass rush has been able to flush QBs out of the pocket this year. They’re tied for 11th in sacks (six) this season.

Opposing QBs have been gashing Buffalo on the ground. Kyler Murray totalled 57 rushing yards in Week 1 while the duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson combined for 21 in Week 2.

Lawrence was running for his life against the Browns. Expect him to do the same against Buffalo.

Key stat: Lawrence totalled 45 rushing yards against Cleveland in Week 2.

Quick picks

Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): If there’s another area where Jacksonville can take advantage of Buffalo’s linebacker injuries, it’s in the short passing game.

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Bernard and Milano are both excellent in coverage and their absences have made Buffalo susceptible to receiving production from opposing running backs.

The Bills are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to the position (72.5), according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Etienne hasn’t been very involved as a pass-catcher this season. He only has 21 receiving yards through two games, but he’s very capable as a receiver. This could be a prime opportunity for him to showcase his chops.

Kirk over 42.5 receiving yards (-115): Jacksonville’s passing attack has been abysmal and Kirk has suffered as a result.

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The Jaguars receiver recorded 30 yards in Week 1 before finishing with negative one receiving yards in Week 2.

That’s right: You, me and everyone else reading this had more receiving yards than Kirk last Sunday.

But there are some encouraging underlying stats working in Kirk’s favour. For one, he’s fifth among all wide receivers in average depth of target (18.4), according to Player Profiler. He’s also first among all wide receivers in route win rate (97.1%).

The stat that’s most encouraging about Kirk, however, is that he’s sixth in slot snaps (66).

He should be able to feast on a Buffalo secondary that’ll be missing slot corner Taron Johnson for a second consecutive week.

Picks made at 2:13 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.

Chiefs vs. Falcons Week 3 prop picks: Back Perine and Robinson on Sunday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs put their 2-0 record on the line against the Atlanta Falcons.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta was staring down an 0-2 start before a last-minute drive from Kirk Cousins changed everything. In Week 3, I expect Bijan Robinson to lead the Falcons’ offence. Isiah Pacheco’s absence makes Samaje Perine and Carson Steele intriguing prop plays.

Check out my Chiefs vs. Falcons prop picks for Sept. 22.

Chiefs vs. Falcons prop picks

Full NFL Week 3 betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Perine over 39.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112)

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Pacheco’s absence creates a major void in Kansas City’s backfield.

The Chiefs running back logged 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 1 and 66% in Week 2 before exiting with an injury.

Kareem Hunt was signed to the squad earlier this week but he won’t be active. That leaves Perine, Steele and Keaontay Ingram as the three remaining backs on the squad.

Ingram hasn’t played a snap yet this season so he likely won’t see much action. The rushing and receiving yards lines suggest that Steele will take over, but I have my doubts (more on that later).

The veteran Perine is who I suspect will benefit the most from this opportunity. Perine is a fine all-around back who can make plays as a rusher and in the receiving game. He recorded 455 receiving yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 53 attempts last year.

Perine is capable in both aspects, but his receiving chops are where I expect him to really put up some numbers.

Key stat: Pacheco totalled 42 touches in Weeks 1 and 2, which gives an indication of the opportunity volume that could now be open to Perine.

Quick picks

Steele under 54.5 rushing and receiving yards (-118): Steele’s rushing and receiving yards line is 15 yards more than Perine’s.

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That discrepancy suggests that the rookie will be more involved than the veteran, but I’m not so sure about that.

Steele has only logged two more snaps (19-17) than Perine and really hasn’t done much with his opportunities. He’s turned nine carries into 27 yards and a fumble through two weeks.

Steele hasn’t been involved as a receiver and his college resume suggests that’ll continue. He only logged 20-plus receptions in one of his three seasons of college football.

Steele’s fumble in Week 2 might convince head coach Andy Reid to lean more on the trusted veteran Perine.

Robinson over 71.5 rushing yards (-114): If there’s one weakness of the Chiefs, it’s their inability to stop the run.

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Kansas City ceded the ninth-most yards per carry (4.4) in the NFL last season and its been more of the same in 2024. The squad is allowing 4.8 yards per rush through two weeks.

The Falcons should be incentivized to turn this game over to the trusted hands of Robinson. The 2022 first-round pick is coming off a strong showing against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Robinson turned 14 carries into 97 yards in a winning effort.

With Arthur Smith gone, Robinson’s involvement in the offence has grown significantly. He’s playing on 82% of the offensive snaps after seeing just 68% of them in 2023.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.

Rockies vs. Dodgers props Sept. 21: Bet on Freeman to crush

Today’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers presents a mismatch on paper, but there’s prop betting potential.

The pregame narrative: Freddie Freeman is one of MLB’s best hitters. A mouthwatering matchup provides a quality opportunity to wager on him to have a big day.

Check out my Rockies vs. Dodgers props for Sept. 21.

Rockies vs. Dodgers props

Best Bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+105)

With Shohei Ohtani in town and a plethora of other stars filling out L.A.’s lineup, Freeman hasn’t been generating quite the same buzz as he used to. His numbers are down, too, as his .282 batting average is his lowest since 2015.

But one of baseball’s best hitters is entering a prime matchup and has plus-money odds to cash his total bases prop. Sign me up.

It’s difficult to get too down on a guy who’s still providing a .282/.378/.477 slash line with 22 home runs and 88 RBI. Freeman has put up some solid numbers recently, too, as he’s hitting .318 over his last six games.

The Dodgers superstar also gets a matchup with a pitcher who isn’t closing the season with much to feel good about. Rockies starter Cal Quantrill pairs a 4.68 ERA with a 5.11 FIP.

The results have been even worse lately as he has a 7.27 ERA and 6.86 FIP in his last six outings.

The advanced numbers paint an increasingly concerning picture for Quantrill. The righty has a ninth-percentile expected ERA (5.11) and 11th-percentile expected batting average (.272), according to Baseball Savant.

This now marks a second consecutive season where Quantrill ranks amongst the league’s worst in expected ERA and batting average. He was sixth-and-fifth percentile, respectively, in 2023.

Bet on the Canadian citizen to do some damage against the Canadian pitcher on Saturday.

Key stat: Freeman has six hits (including three extra-base hits) in 12 career at-bats against Quantrill.

Pick made at 11:15 a.m. ET 09/21/2024.

Rockies vs. Dodgers props Sept. 21: Bet on Blackmon, Freeman to crush

Today’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers presents a mismatch on paper, but there’s prop betting potential on both sides.

The pregame narrative: Freddie Freeman is one of MLB’s best hitters. A mouthwatering matchup provides a quality opportunity to wager on him to have a big day. Charlie Blackmon is no longer elite, but his track record in tonight’s hitter vs. pitcher matchup makes him the centre of a plus-money parlay.

Check out my Rockies vs. Dodgers props for Sept. 21.

Rockies vs. Dodgers props

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+108)

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With Shohei Ohtani in town and a plethora of other stars filling out L.A.’s lineup, Freeman hasn’t been generating quite the same buzz as he used to. His numbers are down, too, as his .282 batting average is his lowest since 2015.

But one of baseball’s best hitters is entering a prime matchup and has plus-money odds to cash his total bases prop. Sign me up.

It’s difficult to get too down on a guy who’s still providing a .282/.378/.477 slash line with 22 home runs and 88 RBI. Freeman has put up some solid numbers recently, too, as he’s hitting .318 over his last six games.

The Dodgers superstar also gets a matchup with a pitcher who isn’t closing the season with much to feel good about. Rockies starter Cal Quantrill pairs a 4.68 ERA with a 5.11 FIP.

The results have been even worse lately as he has a 7.27 ERA and 6.86 FIP in his last six outings.

Bet on the Canadian citizen to do some damage against the Canadian pitcher on Saturday.

Key stat: Freeman has six hits (including three extra-base hits) in 12 career at-bats against Quantrill.

Quick pick

Parlay: Blackmon to record a hit + Rockies +3.5 (+104): This isn’t the Blackmon of old, but there’s reason to believe he can turn the clock back today.

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The veteran slugger enters with the lowest batting average (.248) of his career. He has been producing better at-bats recently, however, recording 16 hits in his last 17 contests.

He’s facing a pitcher in Walker Buehler, though, who’s having an absolutely dreadful campaign. Buehler combines a 5.54 ERA with a 5.89 FIP while opposing hitters tee off to the tune of a .296 batting average.

Blackmon has had his way with Buehler in the past, too, recording 18 hits in 50 at-bats with one triple and a pair of homers.

I’ve added Rockies +3.5 to this wager to provide us with some palatable, plus-money odds. Looking at this as purely a numbers play, Colorado has covered this spread in 14 of its last 16 contests.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has failed to win by four-plus runs in seven of its last 11 games.

Picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET 09/21/2024.

Bears vs. Texans Week 2 same-game parlay predictions: Back Houston, Mixon in +320 SGP for Sunday Night Football

Caleb Williams makes his primetime debut as the Chicago Bears visit the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The lights seemed too bright for Williams and Chicago a week ago. I expect that to carry into Week 2. I’m picking Houston to cover behind a strong game from Joe Mixon. I also like the under on an alternate total to hit.

Check out my Bears vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions for Week 2 below.

Bears vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Texans -6.5 + Under 49.5 points + Mixon over 70.5 rushing yards (+320)

Texans -6.5 (-103): Chicago appears to have a good defence, but I can’t say the same about its offence.

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Williams struggled in his first start. Was it because the Tennessee Titans have an underrated defence? It could be, but even still, his numbers were dreadful. He completed less than 50% of his passes (14-of-29) for a mere 93 yards (3.2 yards per target) with no touchdowns while taking two sacks.

Houston’s defence may not be as strong as Tennessee’s, but the Bears enter this game with some major injury concerns. Keenan Allen didn’t practice and Rome Odunze was limited with an MCL injury.

Houston’s offence is more than capable of producing. C.J. Stroud completed 24-of-32 attempts for 234 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in a Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

Expect the Texans to outpace Chicago and win comfortably.

Other parlay picks

Under 49.5 points (-195): Houston’s offence can score, but Chicago’s remains a question mark.

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The unit wasn’t responsible for either of the team’s two touchdowns in Week 1. A blocked punt and an interception led to the Bears’ only touchdowns of the game.

Their defence has been excellent, however, since the midseason acquisition of Montez Sweat in 2023. The team has held opponents to just 17.1 points per game in 10 contests since Sweat joined the fold.

Chicago’s defence should prevent Houston from making this ugly, while I anticipate very little offence from the Bears as Williams hits the road for the first time.

Mixon over 70.5 rushing yards (-117): Another reason why I like the under in this game is because I expect Houston to control it on the ground.

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Chicago’s rushing defence was exposed in its Week 1 loss. The Titans totalled 140 yards on 26 carries (5.4 yards per tote) in a losing effort.

Mixon proved there’s still juice left in the tank in Week 1. The veteran runner turned 30 carries into 159 yards in the victory.

A similar workload may be unrealistic, but Mixon’s efficiency and Chicago’s struggles show that he doesn’t need a barrel of carries to have a big day rushing.

This wager also aligns nicely with the game script I’m expecting. Expect Houston to hand the ball off plenty if it’s up big, keeping the clock running on an unproven Chicago offence.

Picks made at 1:14 p.m. on 09/15/24.

Saquon Barkley Week 2 Monday Night Football props: Odds and best bet for Eagles’ RB vs. Falcons

Saquon Barkley’s debut for the Philadelphia Eagles couldn’t have gone much better.

The pregame narrative: Barkley recorded a trio of touchdowns as Philadelphia downed the Green Bay Packers, 34-29, in Sao Paulo, Brazil. How will the Eagles’ superstar follow that up in Philadelphia’s home opener against the Atlanta Falcons?

Check out our Saquon Barkley props, odds and best bet for Week 2 of Monday Night Football.

Saquon Barkley props

Full Monday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Barkley prop markets	Odds
Over 76.5 rushing yards	-112
Under 76.5 rushing yards	-117
Over 17.5 receiving yards	-113
Under 17.5 receiving yards	-115
Over 17.5 rushing attempts	-109
Under 17.5 rushing attempts	-118
Over 2.5 receptions	-129
Under 2.5 receptions	+100
To score a touchdown	-215
To score 2+ touchdowns	+340
To score 3+ touchdowns	+1,400

NFL odds as of 12:01 p.m. ET on 09/15/2024.

Bettors and fans may have understated Barkley’s impact on the Eagles entering this season.

The superstar running back wasted no time putting the league on notice. Barkley turned 24 carries into 109 rushing yards and two receptions into 23 receiving yards while scoring three touchdowns in the team’s season-opening victory over Green Bay.

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That type of performance doesn’t go unnoticed. Barkley now owns the shortest odds to win Offensive Player of the Year (+600) after Week 1.

Barkley will look to add to his OPOY case in Week 2 against the Falcons.

Best Barkley prop bet

Best Bet: Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards (-112)

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Volume is the key to a wager like this and I expect Barkley to see plenty of it.

Philadelphia had no issues leaning on Barkley in Week 1 in a game that was close from start to finish against the Packers. He handled 24 carries in a tightly-contested, 34-29 win over Green Bay.

Now, the Eagles enter Monday Night Football as six-point favourites and should be even more inclined to lean on the rushing attack if the game plays true to form.

A compromised receiving core may also make the run game more appealing to Philadelphia in this contest. A.J. Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury and will miss the game.

That’s a significant piece missing from the Eagles’ passing offence. Putting the game in Barkley’s hands makes even more sense with the team’s WR1 out.

The Pittsburgh Steelers centred their offensive game plan on the run in Week 1 against the Falcons. Pittsburgh rushed the ball 41 times for an unimpressive 137 yards, albeit in a winning effort. Najee Harris led the way with 20 carries for 70 yards.

Barkley is a much better talent than Harris, however, and the Eagles have a significantly better offensive line. I’m betting on the Eagles RB to erupt for a big game on Monday night.

Pick made at 12:01 p.m. ET 09/15/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals Sept. 15: Bet on Toronto to win a low-scoring game

The Toronto Blue Jays can complete the sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals with a win on Roberto Clemente Day.

The pregame narrative: St. Louis’ wild-card hopes are slipping away, and I expect the Cards to slip even further out of the NL race on Sunday. I’m betting on Toronto to earn another win and for it to be a low-scoring ball game.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals on Sept. 15.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals

Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-125)

Toronto isn’t playing for anything with the season drawing to a close, but it is playing stronger baseball lately.

The Blue Jays are on the verge of sweeping the Cardinals as their bats have come alive. They’re averaging 4.71 runs per game across their last seven, winning four of those contests.

Having one of the league’s best bats in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t hurt. The superstar first baseman has been one of the lone bright spots on a squad that doesn’t have much else going for it.

Guerrero is seventh in OPS (.939), third in on-base percentage (.394) and tied for 20th in home runs (28).

Picking on St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas isn’t such a bad idea, either. Mikolas combines a 5.55 ERA with a 4.20 FIP, and those numbers are slipping fast for the veteran. He’s allowed 13 earned runs across 11.2 innings in his last three appearances.

Yariel Rodriguez’s play is improving. He has pitched eight innings in two starts this month, holding opposing batters to one run and a .185 batting average.

Bet on Toronto pulling out a win and earning the sweep.

Key stat: St. Louis has lost four of its last six games, including Mikolas’ most recent start.

Quick pick

Under 8.5 runs (-112): I’m not expecting the Cardinals to contribute much to this total.

This is one of the most anemic offences in the league. The Cards rank 24th in runs per game (4.09) and don’t find themselves in great form ahead of this contest.

St. Louis has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last eight outings. Naturally, the under on this total has cashed in seven of its last nine outings.

A significant turnaround against a pitcher who’s dealing as well as Rodriguez isn’t something I’m expecting.

Toronto’s offence is just below league average (4.24, 17th), and while I expect the Blue Jays to earn the win and get to Mikolas, I don’t think they’ll light him up and push this total to the over.

The Jays have gone under this total in eight of their last 11 games.

Picks made at 11:31 a.m. on 09/15/24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals Sept. 15: Bet on Toronto to win a low-scoring game

The Toronto Blue Jays can complete the sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals with a win on Roberto Clemente Day.

The pregame narrative: St. Louis’ wild-card hopes are slipping away, and I expect the Cards to slip even further out of the NL race on Sunday. I’m betting on Toronto to earn another win and for it to be a low-scoring ball game.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals on Sept. 15.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-117)

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Toronto isn’t playing for anything with the season drawing to a close, but it is playing stronger baseball lately.

The Blue Jays are on the verge of sweeping the Cardinals as their bats have come alive. They’re averaging 4.71 runs per game across their last seven, winning four of those contests.

Having one of the league’s best bats in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t hurt. The superstar first baseman has been one of the lone bright spots on a squad that doesn’t have much else going for it.

Guerrero is seventh in OPS (.939), third in on-base percentage (.394) and tied for 20th in home runs (28).

Picking on St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas isn’t such a bad idea, either. Mikolas combines a 5.55 ERA with a 4.20 FIP, and those numbers are slipping fast for the veteran. He’s allowed 13 earned runs across 11.2 innings in his last three appearances.

Yariel Rodriguez’s play is improving. He has pitched eight innings in two starts this month, holding opposing batters to one run and a .185 batting average.

Bet on Toronto pulling out a win and earning the sweep.

Key stat: St. Louis has lost four of its last six games, including Mikolas’ most recent start.

Quick pick

Under 8.5 runs (-110): I’m not expecting the Cardinals to contribute much to this total.

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This is one of the most anemic offences in the league. The Cards rank 24th in runs per game (4.09) and don’t find themselves in great form ahead of this contest.

St. Louis has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last eight outings. Naturally, the under on this total has cashed in seven of its last nine outings.

A significant turnaround against a pitcher who’s dealing as well as Rodriguez isn’t something I’m expecting.

Toronto’s offence is just below league average (4.24, 17th), and while I expect the Blue Jays to earn the win and get to Mikolas, I don’t think they’ll light him up and push this total to the over.

The Jays have gone under this total in eight of their last 11 games.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 09/15/24.

Jets vs. 49ers Week 1 best bets: Fade New York, Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets hope for better luck their second time around.

The pregame narrative: Rodgers makes his long-awaited return from an Achilles injury that cost him the 2023 season. It’s not an easy takeoff for the Jets as a primetime date with the San Francisco 49ers awaits. I’m fading New York any way I can.

Check out the best Jets vs. 49ers best bets for Week 1’s Monday Night Football matchup below.

Jets vs. 49ers best bets

Go to full Jets vs. 49ers betting markets.

Best Bet: 49ers -4.5 (-110)

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I think New York is getting a little too much credit ahead of the 2024 season.

Don’t believe me? Check out the odds to win the AFC East. The Jets (+170) have the shortest odds to win the division at NorthStar Bets.

But I’m not buying the hype. For starters, we don’t even know how good Rodgers is. This is a 40-year-old quarterback (turning 41 in December) who was declining before rupturing his Achilles a season ago.

Rodgers had an unimpressive 6.8 yards per attempt and 12 interceptions (his most since taking over for Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers) in his most recent full season.

The counterargument people like to make is that the Jets can’t possibly get worse quarterback play than what they’ve had. That part might be true, but it isn’t an endorsement of Rodgers by any stretch.

He doesn’t get to dip his toes into action against a weak defence, either. This is a 49ers defence that still has playmakers all over the field, featuring edge rushers like Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd who can get after the QB.

New York’s defence is legit, but the 49ers have plenty of playmakers who can wreak havoc. I expect the latter to do enough against the former to cover this spread.

Key stat: San Francisco went 7-3 at home last year, boasting an average margin of victory of 7.1 points at Levi’s Stadium.

Quick picks

Jets under 0.5 touchdowns – first half (+215): This wager has some juicy odds but I can get behind it.

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I suspect New York’s offence will sputter out of the gate. Rodgers’ reps with this team have almost been exclusively limited to training camp, giving him next to no game action with this offence. Expecting him to excel from the jump seems ludicrous.

San Francisco was very good at limiting opposing offences in the first half of games last season. Opponents averaged 9.6 first-half points per contest against the 49ers in 2024.

Under 43.5 points (-108): This is a natural addition to my betslip with my expectations set very low for New York’s offence.

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But I’m not anticipating a banner day from San Francisco, either. The Jets’ defence deserves its plaudits as they held opponents to the 10th-fewest points per game (20.9) in the NFL in 2023.

Additionally, the 49ers’ offence hasn’t had a whole lot of time to practice together this offseason. Christian McCaffrey was out with a calf injury for most of training camp, Brandon Aiyuk was limited due to contract negotiations and star left tackle Trent Williams was holding out for a new deal.

San Francisco’s offence should score enough to cover, but I don’t think it’ll need bunches of points to do so.

NFL picks made at 2:14 p.m. on 09/08/2024.

Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz US Open men’s final odds and best bet: Pick Italian to cruise to victory

American hopeful Taylor Fritz has his work cut out for him in the US Open men’s final, facing Jannik Sinner.

The pregame narrative: An American man hasn’t won the US Open since Andy Roddick took home the title in 2003. Unfortunately for Americans everywhere, I don’t expect Fritz to snap the slump on Sunday. Instead, I’m betting on Sinner to cruise to a straight sets victory.

Check out our Sinner vs. Fritz odds and best bet for their US Open men’s final match on September 8.

Sinner vs. Fritz US Open men’s final odds

Go to full Sinner vs. Fritz betting markets.

Best Bet: Sinner -2.5 sets (+180)

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Beating Sinner in a set — let alone a match — has been a tall task for anyone on the hardcourts in 2024.

He’s an otherworldly 34-2 on the surface this year, winning 19 of his last 20 matches on the hardcourts. Four of his six wins at Flushing Meadows have come via straight sets, including his semifinal victory over Jack Draper.

Fritz has obviously impressed at the US Open, advancing to the final while beating some impressive opponents. He topped Frances Tiafoe, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in his last three matches, beating a trio of top-20 competitors.

But those matches certainly took a lot out of Fritz.

His last match, specifically, was an exhausting affair. He needed five sets to down fellow countryman Tiafoe in Friday’s night session.

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Sinner’s all-around prowess figures to put a lot of pressure on Fritz, who certainly isn’t as experienced as the Italian when it comes to working deep into Grand Slams.

Sinner ranks first among all ATP competitors in percentage of serving games won and on the hardcourts over the last 52 weeks (91.5%), according to ATPtour.com.

He’s also fifth in return games won on this surface (26.8%), making him the only competitor Fritz has played who ranks inside the top 10 of this category.

Sinner’s return game should neutralize Frtiz’s heavy serve and guide him to a comfortable win.

Key stat: 19 of Sinner’s last 26 wins on the hardcourts have come via straight sets.

Picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET on 09/07/2024.