Steven Psihogios

The New Orleans Saints hit the road to battle the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Rashee Rice’s knee injury is a major blow to Kansas City’s offence. The Chiefs are fighting through several offensive absences, and I expect a low-scoring game against New Orleans. Additionally, I will back the Saints plus the points and take the over on Justin Watson’s receptions prop.

Check out my Saints vs. Chiefs best bets for the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.

Saints vs. Chiefs best bets

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Best Bet: Under 43.5 points (-113)

It’s fair to wonder whether Kansas City’s offence will ever be at full strength again this season.

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Rice is on injured reserve with a knee injury, Isiah Pacheco is sidelined for six to eight weeks with a fibula injury, and Hollywood Brown is unlikely to return this regular season.

With Travis Kelce showing signs of decline and Xavier Worthy being used sparingly as he adjusts to the NFL, this is suddenly an offence devoid of elite receiving weapons.

The offence was out of sorts following Rice’s departure in Week 4, finishing with just 17 points against the Los Angeles Chargers.

New Orleans’ offence may have a difficult time adjusting to the outdoor conditions at Arrowhead Stadium. The Saints have only scored 36 points over the last two weeks after scoring 91 through the first two games, and there’s one glaring reason for that: Rashid Shaheed.

Shaheed’s ability to take the top off opposing defences allowed the Saints to run up the score with a quick-strike offence. The superstar wideout scored 50-plus-yard touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2. He failed to do so in Weeks 3 and 4, and New Orleans struggled to produce at the same rate.

Connecting on the long ball at Caesars Superdome is one thing. Doing so outdoors could prove to be a much more difficult task.

Key stat: The under on this total hit in Kansas City’s two most recent games.

Quick Picks

Saints +5.5 (-110): New Orleans’ offence might struggle to run up the score, but its defence should hold Kansas City in check.

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The Saints have been excellent on that side of the ball. They boast the No. 2 defensive DVOA rating (-17.5%) in the NFL, according to FTN Fantasy.

New Orleans has been able to hold opposing teams to 20 points or fewer in three of its four games, covering this spread in each of its games this season.

Conversely, Kansas City constantly finds itself winning close contests. All four of the Chiefs’ wins have been one-score games, as they’ve failed to cover this spread in two of their last three outings.

Watson over 2.5 receptions (+145): This wager doesn’t require Watson to do a lot.

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To be fair, Watson hasn’t had three catches in any game this season, but this one is a little different.

Rice’s injury paved the way for Watson to receive more snaps in Week 4. He played a season-high 43 snaps against the Chargers and posted a season-high in targets (three).

An expanded role for Watson should allow him to flirt with three receptions.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 10/05/2024.

The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals link up in a crucial AFC North showdown in Week 5.

The pregame narrative: It’s not too early to say this is a must-win game for Cincinnati. I’m picking a desperate Bengals side to earn a win on Sunday. An over on a teased-down total and a big game from Ja’Marr Chase rounds out this +400 parlay.

Check out our Ravens vs. Bengals predictions for the Week 5 matchup on Oct. 6.

Ravens vs. Bengals SGP predictions

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Parlay: Bengals moneyline + Over 44.5 points + Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (+400)

Bengals moneyline (+123): This game really does feel like Cincinnati’s season.

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With a win, the Bengals will be sitting (at best) one game back of first in the division by the end of Sunday. With a loss, they could find themselves three games back and at the bottom of a very competitive AFC North.

Cincinnati is trending upward after a slow start to the 2024 campaign. The offence has been among the league’s best, tying for fourth in offensive DVOA (19.0%), per FTN Fantasy.

Baltimore is struggling to stop opposing passing attacks, which gives Cincinnati a firm advantage in this game. The Ravens are tied for 10th in terms of most yards allowed per pass (7.0).

Baltimore is riding high after a lopsided win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football, but this team is still only two weeks removed from losing to the Las Vegas Raiders at home.

Other parlay picks

Over 44.5 points (-200): This game is going to feature a lot of points.

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The Bengals are well-built for high-scoring contests. Although they are tied for fourth in offensive DVOA, they do place a lowly 22nd in defensive DVOA.

Joe Burrow and company will likely have to keep up with a Ravens offence that has been very good.

Baltimore has the best offensive DVOA rating (29.3%) in the NFL.

The team’s defence has been shaky, however, allowing 25-plus points in three of its four games this season.

The over on this total has hit in each of Cincinnati’s last three games and all four of the Ravens’ games.

Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (-115): Thirdly, I’m expecting a big performance from Cincinnati’s top offensive option.

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Chase has put a slow start behind him. The superstar wide receiver had 97 receiving yards and zero touchdowns through the first couple of weeks but has 203 receiving yards and three touchdowns across the last two games.

What makes Chase such a good pick to beat his receiving prop every week is his big-play ability. The wide receiver ranks fifth at the position in yards per target (12.5), according to PlayerProfiler.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. on 10/05/24

Two desperate teams meet on Monday Night Football as the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins do battle.

The pregame narrative: Both teams’ seasons are spiralling fast. I like Tennessee to break its losing streak but I’ll back the Titans with a few points for insurance. I’m also taking the over on an ultra-low total and backing Will Levis to beat a modest passing yards prop.

Check out my Titans vs. Dolphins same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below.

Titans vs. Dolphins same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Titans +3.5 + Over 33.5 points + Levis over 199.5 passing yards (+300)

Titans +3.5 (-152): Tennessee probably shouldn’t be 0-3, but it is.

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Boneheaded mistakes from their banana-peal eating, mayo-in-coffee QB have cost them a pair of games. Last week’s loss, however, was a full-team letdown.

Tennessee finds itself as an underdog, however, against a Miami team missing starting QB Tua Tagovailoa.

That has me intrigued.

The Dolphins are turning to Tyler Huntley at QB after Skylar Thompson struggled mightily in Week 3. Huntley’s track record as a Pro Bowler might pique the interest of some, but there’s reason to be skeptical.

Huntley isn’t a very good passer. He totalled eight touchdowns and seven interceptions during his time with the Ravens while averaging a minuscule 5.7 yards per attempt.

The Titans should be able to put this game out of reach if they get up early. I especially like getting them plus a field goal at a reasonable price.

Other parlay picks

Over 33.5 points (-177): The total for this game is 37 points, which tells you a lot about these two offences.

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Tennessee ranks 28th in points per game (16.0) while Miami is last (11.0).

But the Titans’ offensive struggles do require some context. They’ve played some of the league’s best defences. The Green Bay Packers (12th), Chicago Bears (T-10) and New York Jets (8th) all rank inside the league’s top-12 in points against.

The Dolphins are not on the level of those other squads. Miami places 22nd in points against per game (24.0) and is tied for 26th in opponent yards per play (5.7).

Tennessee’s offence should be able to break through in this contest and push this total over.

Levis over 199.5 passing yards (+104): The bad Levis plays are singed into everybody’s mind.

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The flip pass of doom against the Bears, the backward pass of peril against the Jets, and the where were you looking? pick-six against the Packers.

You have to wonder how much longer until Levis gets his own segment on NFL Red Zone.

But the Titans QB is actually coming off a pretty solid passing day. He completed 76.5% of his passes for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns (two interceptions, too) against a solid Green Bay secondary.

Miami’s passing defence is tied for 26th in opposing yards per pass attempt (7.4) and will be without cornerback Kendall Fuller.

If there was ever a time for Levis to show off his arm talent and have a game, this would be the one.

Picks made at 3:06 p.m. on 09/28/24.

The Seattle Seahawks put their undefeated record on the line against the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: Seattle’s hot start doesn’t seem to be getting much league-wide attention. I expect that to change after a strong performance led by DK Metcalf in primetime. Jahmyr Gibbs is an electric running back but I’m fading him against a solid Seahawks defence.

Check out my Seahawks vs. Lions prop picks for Sept. 30.

Seahawks vs. Lions prop picks

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Best Bet: Metcalf over 64.5 receiving yards (-110)

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Seattle’s new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has made one thing clear through the first three weeks: Metcalf is the focal point of this offence.

After a quiet Week 1 where the superstar wide receiver only recorded three receptions for 29 yards, he’s broken out in a major way. Metcalf has hauled in 14 of his 20 targets for 233 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The opportunity Metcalf is receiving in this offence is too good to ignore. He ranks ninth among all wide receivers in air yards (308) and is 16th in total route wins (52), according to PlayerProfiler.

He draws a very winnable matchup in Week 4 as he faces off with Detroit cornerback Carlton Davis.

Davis made a name for himself with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he’s failing to live up to the hype with Detroit.

Davis has allowed 19 receptions and 234 yards through the first three weeks.

I expect Metcalf, who’s one of the league’s best big-play receivers, to dominate inside the domed Ford Field.

Key stat: The Lions are allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (203.0), according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Quick pick

Gibbs under 75.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): Gibbs has beaten this number in each of his last two games but I’m not sold on a third consecutive over.

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My biggest concern is his usage in 2024. Gibbs has played on just 54% of the team’s offensive snaps.

I understand that Gibbs is a dynamic player and only needs a handful of touches to top this mark, but I’m bearish on that happening against a stout Seahawks defence.

Seattle has done a good job at limiting opposing running back’s involvement in the passing game. The defence has ceded the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game (21.3) to the position.

Gibbs failed to record a reception in Week 3. I’m not betting on a strong performance against a very capable defence in Week 4.

Picks made at 2:17 p.m. ET 09/28/2024.

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens collide in an epic Sunday Night Football matchup that features an elite quarterback duel.

The pregame narrative: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the absolute best QBs in football. The two are primed to show out in primetime but in different ways. I expect Allen to dice up a weak Baltimore secondary and Jackson to gash Buffalo on the ground.

Check out our Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson props, odds and best bet for Week 4 on Sunday Night Football.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson props

Josh Allen props

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NFL odds as of 12:16 a.m. ET on 09/28/2024.

Allen has the second-shortest odds to win NFL MVP (+250) and for good reason. He has been exceptional.

The Bills quarterback has his team at a convincing 3-0 despite losing his top two wide receivers from a season ago and having a defence ravaged by offseason departures and injuries.

Allen has been incredibly efficient in 2024. He’s completed 75% of his passes for 634 passing yards (8.81 yards per attempt) with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions.

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Rushing remains a big part of his game, too, as he has 85 rushing yards in three contests.

Best Allen prop bet

Best Bet: Allen over 227.5 passing yards (-114)

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Buffalo hasn’t really needed to lean on Allen this season.

The team’s defence has dominated its opposition since ceding 28 points in Week 1. The unit has allowed only 20 points across its last two games to the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both of those contests were out of hand entering the fourth quarter and Allen didn’t have to do much.

The game script should be much different this time around. Buffalo enters this game as a small underdog and it figures to be a competitive contest.

The Bills will likely need to continue racking up points against Jackson and company. That’ll keep Allen dropping back deep into the ball game and should vault him above this total.

Oh, and those worried about a vaunted Ravens defence don’t have to stress anymore. That team is long gone. Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards per game (291.7) in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson props

NFL odds as of 12:16 a.m. ET on 09/28/2024.

Baltimore’s passing attack hasn’t looked right in 2024.

Jackson only has three passing touchdowns through three games and none of the team’s receivers has recorded 150 receiving yards.

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The addition of Derrick Henry, however, has elevated the team’s rushing attack. The Ravens are one of only two teams averaging more than 170 rushing yards per game (203.3) this season.

Lamar Jackson prop bet

Best Bet: Jackson over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

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Baltimore’s struggling passing attack likely isn’t going to beat Buffalo through the air.

The Bills haven’t given up much to opposing passers. They’re tied for allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards per game (168.3) and the second-fewest passing yards per attempt (4.4).

Buffalo has only played one QB who can rush at a somewhat comparable level to Jackson, and that was Kyler Murray in Week 1. The Arizona Cardinals QB was able to rattle off 57 rushing yards in the contest.

The Ravens’ inability to pass the football has forced Jackson to run just to keep the team in games. Jackson has rushed 35 times for 254 yards, topping this total in two of three games.

I’m betting he makes it a third against Buffalo’s defence which is missing linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard.

Picks made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 09/28/2024.

There are must-see matchups all over the NFL’s Week 4 slate.

The latest: The Sunday night clash between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens headlines a solid weekend of football action. NFC South foes, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, meet in an important divisional clash. Elsewhere, the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings battle the Green Bay Packers.

Check out the latest NFL Week 4 odds below.

NFL Week 4 odds

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New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

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Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

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Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

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Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

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Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

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Betting insights

• All eyes will be on Sunday Night Football when the Bills visit the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is 2-1 lifetime against Buffalo, although Josh Allen led Buffalo to victory the last time these squads linked up.

• The Texans look to bounce back after a lopsided loss to the Vikings. Houston returns home in Week 4 as it welcomes a divisional rival, the Jaguars.

• Pittsburgh is still undefeated after beating up Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The Steelers’ defence is as ferocious as they come, and could make life miserable for Anthony Richardson and the Colts.

• Minnesota is one of the most surprising early stories of the season. Next up is a date against the Packers, who’ve navigated the Jordan Love injury well and are 2-0 with Malik Willis under centre.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills kick off a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: The Jacksonville Jaguars will throw a hard punch as the team stares down an 0-3 start, but I’m picking the Buffalo Bills to win. The over on a teased-down total is my play with a pair of susceptible secondaries doing battle. Thirdly, I like Travis Etienne to top his receiving yards total.

Check out our Jaguars vs. Bills predictions for the matchup on Sept. 23.

Jaguars vs. Bills SGP predictions

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Parlay: Bills moneyline + Over 40.5 points + Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (+280)

Bills moneyline (-265): Several factors are working in Buffalo’s favour in this contest.

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The most glaring point is rest. The Bills are operating on a “mini bye” after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Buffalo has had three extra days to prepare for this Monday night matchup.

Secondly, it has the better offence. Josh Allen has kept Buffalo afloat as the team ranks third in points per game (32.5) through the first couple of weeks. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, meanwhile, are tied for a lowly 26th in points per contest (15.0).

A good barometer for how these teams are defensively is by judging their performance against a common opponent: the Miami Dolphins.

Buffalo held Miami to 10 points in Week 2 while forcing Tua Tagovailoa to throw three interceptions. Jacksonville allowed 20 points to the Dolphins in Week 1.

I’m giving the Bills the edge on both sides of the field and will confidently pick them to win.

Other parlay picks

Over 40.5 points (-225): I’m not expecting this contest to be a shootout but these two offences should top this modest total.

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I expect Jacksonville’s offence to look much better than it did in Week 2. An elite Cleveland Browns defence held the Jaguars to 13 points in a game where Lawrence completed just 14-of-30 passes.

There are some defensive injuries on the Bills that Jacksonville should exploit. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are out at linebacker and slot corner Taron Johnson remains sidelined.

The latter injury should open up some space for Christian Kirk in the slot.

Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in each of its first two games, showing that it can almost get to this total on its own. I expect the Bills to look good offensively once again.

Etienne over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): If there’s one thing the Bills have shown defensively this year it’s that it’ll give opposing teams the underneath passing game.

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Milano and Bernard excel in stopping the passing attack and having both of those linebackers out has opened up holes in the short areas of the field. Buffalo is surrendering the second-most receiving yards per game (72.5) to opposing running backs, according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Etienne is a polished pass catcher but he hasn’t received many opportunities to shine in 2024. He’s hauled in five of his seven targets for a measly 21 yards.

Etienne caught four of five targets for 48 yards against the Bills last season.

Picks made at 11:44 a.m. on 09/22/24.

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons for a primetime battle on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta showed it had some fight in Week 2. I like the Falcons to keep this contest within a touchdown. Carson Steele appears to be the apparent favourite to lead the Chiefs’ backfield, but I prefer Samaje Perine. Thirdly, I’m taking the over on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards total.

Check out our Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions for the matchup on Sept. 22.

Chiefs vs. Falcons SGP predictions

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Parlay: Falcons +7.5 + Perine over 38.5 rushing and receiving yards + Robinson over 69.5 rushing yards (+375)

Falcons +7.5 (-235): Kansas City enters this contest 2-0 but this is a lot of points for any squad.

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Despite knocking off the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs didn’t cover this spread in either game this season. Their offence has been solid, ranking seventh in yards per play (5.9), but their defence is tied for allowing the eighth-most yards per play (5.7) in the NFL.

The Falcons’ offence seemed to figure something out in the second half of their Week 2 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta recorded 209 yards of offence and put up 16 points in the second half en route to a comeback, 22-21 victory.

With Cousins settling into his new digs I expect the Falcons to keep it competitive against the Chiefs as they hit the road for the first time this season.

Other parlay picks

Perine over 38.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112): The rushing and receiving yards lines for Week 3 suggest Steele is the 1A and Perine is the 1B but I’m not so sure about that.

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Steele’s rushing and receiving yards line is resting at 54.5 while Perine’s is at 38.5. The issue I take in that is the former hasn’t done much to earn his stripes in the NFL.

The rookie runner has turned nine carries into an uninspiring 27 yards and a fumble while providing nothing as a receiver. He has logged 19 snaps through the first couple of contests.

Perine has only logged two fewer snaps (17) and although he hasn’t logged a carry, he has two receptions on three targets. The veteran also has a lengthy track record that suggests he’s a capable all-around back.

Perine totalled 455 receiving yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 50 totes in 2023 despite only logging one start.

I expect head coach Andy Reid to favour experience in this situation, which makes this line seem a little light.

Robinson over 69.5 rushing yards (-115): Robinson showed why he’s one of the top running backs in the NFL in Week 2.

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The second-year pro gashed a very good Eagles run defence last Monday. He turned 14 carries into 97 yards and added 25 receiving yards in a strong showing.

A similar effort should be expected against Kansas City. The Chiefs have really struggled to stop the run this season. They’re ceding a lofty 4.8 yards per carry in 2024, a continuation of their 2023 issues.

Kansas City conceded 4.4 yards per rush last year.

Picks made at 9:13 a.m. on 09/22/24.