Steven Psihogios

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs collide in a Super Bowl 55 rematch.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay beat Kansas City in the Big Game a few years ago. The latter, however, enters Monday Night Football as a significant favourite. Travis Kelce should propel the Chiefs to victory, while Bucky Irving should best a modest receiving yards prop.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 4.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prop picks

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Best Bet: Kelce over 64.5 receiving yards (+112)

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This is a game where Kelce should absolutely feast.

The Buccaneers are a dream matchup for tight ends and pass catchers in general. They’re allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (255.4) and the third-most to tight ends (64.8), according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Kelce’s involvement in the offence has increased drastically since the injury to Rashee Rice.

Check out his numbers from Weeks 1 to 3 and his numbers since.

There’s been a significant spike in his outputs with the offence’s top receiver out.

The addition of DeAndre Hopkins adds another option to this group, but it’s fair to wonder just how much he has in the tank. Hopkins entered the season with an MCL injury and is 32 years old.

Xavier Worthy is an intriguing prospect, but he’s a big-play receiver and not a possession guy. He’ll continue to be a volatile option and not someone who’ll command a lot of volume.

This offence will continue to flow through its best player, meaning Kelce should deliver in primetime.

Key stat: Kelce has topped this total in three of his last four games.

Quick pick

Irving over 14.5 receiving yards (-120): Tampa Bay’s wide receiver room has been hit hard by injuries.

Chris Godwin is out for the year and Mike Evans is sidelined again. That means there’s a significant amount of targets available in this offence.

Week 8 marked the Buccaneers’ first game without their star receivers and it was Irving who benefitted the most. He led the team in target percentage (23%) and caught all seven of his targets for 40 yards.

Irving has totalled 148 receiving yards across the last three weeks and should continue to be active in the receiving game with Evans and Godwin out.

Picks made at 6:06 p.m. ET 11/02/2024.

The Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts meet for a cross-conference showdown on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Richardson has been relegated to the bench for the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Flacco takes over but I’m not optimistic about his chances against this Minnesota defence. I’m backing the Vikings on a teased-down spread, Aaron Jones to have a big game, and the over.

Check out my Colts vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions for Week 9 below.

Colts vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Vikings -2.5 + Jones over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards + Over 44.5 points (+300)

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Vikings -2.5 (-190): I expect Minnesota’s defence to be the difference in this matchup.

The trademark of defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ defence is blitzing. The Vikings lead the league in blitz percentage (41.4%) and pressure percentage (30.2%).

The best way to beat pressure is to evade it. Mobile quarterbacks like Richardson can roll away from the pressure, but a pocket passer like Flacco can’t.

Flacco is 11th among all QBs in clean pocket completion percentage (69.8%), but he drops to 27th in pressured completion percentage (50.0%).

Minnesota’s offence should be able to move the ball well against this Colts defence. Indianapolis is tied for 22nd in opponent yards per play (5.6).

Other parlay picks

Jones over 99.5 rushing and receiving yards (+100): Let’s get some of the bad news out of the way first. DeForest Buckner’s return last week is a significant boost for the Colts’ run defence.

The good news for bettors is that Jones doesn’t exclusively make his living by running the ball up the middle. The talented back is also a polished receiver. Jones has topped 30 receiving yards in four of seven contests this season.

It does help, however, that Jones is also a strong runner. He has four games with 90-plus rushing yards this campaign.

The Colts should still be viewed as one of the better matchups until further notice. They’re ceding the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (123.3) and the 10th-most receiving yards to the position (36.5).

Over 44.5 points (-141): Thirdly, I’m betting on these two offences scoring a fair amount of points.

While Minnesota’s defence should be able to get home on Flacco in key moments, Indianapolis’ offence will likely have some success moving the football.

The Vikings have allowed 61 points over their last two games after holding four of their first five opponents to fewer than 20 points.

Their offence should be able to deliver in this spot. Minnesota is tied for 11th in yards per play (5.7) and seventh in points per game (26.9).

Picks made at 2:38 p.m. on 11/02/24.

The Pittsburgh Steelers aim for the New York sweep as the Giants come to town.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh toppled the New York Jets in Week 7 and I’m betting it beats the Giants in Week 8. I’m also taking the under on a teased-up total and expecting Russell Wilson to go below his rushing yards total.

Check out my Giants vs. Steelers same-game parlay predictions for Week 8 below.

Giants vs. Steelers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Under 40.5 points + Wilson under 15.5 rushing yards (+310)

Steelers moneyline (-265): Pittsburgh should dominate the trenches and win this football game.

New York enters with some serious injury concerns on the offensive line. Andrew Thomas is out, and Jermaine Eluemunor is at less than full health.

That’s troublesome against a Steelers defence that gets plenty of pressure off the edge with T.J. Watt.

Additionally, New York is starting to revert into the team many expected at the beginning of the season. The Giants have been outscored 45-10 over the last two weeks.

One clear advantage the Steelers will have in this contest is rushing the football. They have the second-highest rushing play percentage (53.17%) in the league and face a Giants defence that is tied for surrendering the most yards per carry (5.4).

Pittsburgh is 2-1 at home with a pair of wins by 10-plus points.

Other parlay picks

Under 40.5 points (-205): New York’s recent offensive woes make the under a wise wager.

The Giants have only scored once in each of their last two games, totalling 10 points during that span. New York is tied for the worst yards per play in the league across the last three weeks (4.2).

Additionally, Pittsburgh’s offence isn’t lighting the league up. It’s a middling 16th in points per game (23.0) on the season.

The Steelers are one of the slowest-moving teams offensively, limiting the amount of possessions per game. They rank 27th in seconds per play (30.5), an indicator that they like to eat up the clock with their offensive drives.

New York has gone under this number in six of seven games this season. Pittsburgh has done so in four of its seven outings.

Wilson under 15.5 rushing yards (-120): This is one of my favourite props of the week.

Wilson’s return from injury in Week 7 was a smashing success. He led the Steelers to a 37-15 victory over the Jets with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.

Don’t let the rushing score fool you, though. Wilson didn’t make much of an impact on the ground.

The veteran quarterback totalled three rushes for three yards. Simply put, he wasn’t moving off his spot in this game.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Wilson is coming back from a calf injury that has been bothering him since the offseason.

I’ll keep fading Wilson’s rushing prop until he proves his mobility is back.

Picks made at 1:47 p.m. on 10/27/24.

The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both enter Sunday Night Football desperate for a win.

The pregame narrative: Dallas was one bye last week but the memories of its 47-9 loss to the Detroit Lions are still fresh. I expect the Cowboys to bounce back and cover the spread. Secondly, I’m taking the over on a teased down total. Lastly, I’m back Rico Dowdle to usurp a modest rushing yards total.

Check out my Cowboys vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions for Week 8 below.

Cowboys vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Cowboys +4.5 + Over 43.5 points + Dowdle over 40.5 rushing yards (+310)

Cowboys +4.5 (-106): Good teams bounce back from embarrassing losses. I think Dallas is good enough to rebound in this spot.

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The Cowboys aren’t as strong as they’ve been in past years, that much I’ll admit. They’re 20th in points per game (21.0) and 31st in points against per game (28.0).

But they’re facing a San Francisco team that isn’t as good as it’s been in past years, either. The 49ers are missing Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings on offence. That’s a significant trio.

Dallas’ dilemma attracts plenty of attention, but it’s San Francisco (3-4) who enters this game with a worse record.

Take the points in a game where both teams will likely be playing desperate football.

Other parlay picks

Over 43.5 points (-200): I expect this game to feature plenty of points.

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Dallas’ offence should be able to move the ball on San Francisco’s defence. The latter has allowed 24-plus points in three consecutive games.

The 49ers, conversely, shouldn’t struggle to score points in this game even with the litany of injuries. The Cowboys are ceding the second-most points per contest and are still without Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland.

The over on this total has cashed in five of seven Niners game this season. It’s also hit in four of Dallas’ six outings.

Dowdle over 41.5 rushing yards (-110): Thirdly, I expect Dowdle to put in some work on the ground.

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Mike McCarthy stated that the Dallas running back needs more work. Dowdle is averaging 4.2 yards per carry but has received fewer than 10 carries in four of six games. Naturally, he fell below this total in all four of those contests.

The fourth-year pro has eclipsed this mark, however, in the two games where he received double-digit carries.

He should be able to clear this modest mark against a San Francisco defence that has been just OK at stopping the run this season. The Niners are ceding 4.4 yards per rush in 2024.

Picks made at 12:27 p.m. on 10/27/24.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are back in prime time at home to battle the New York Giants.

The pregame narrative: Russell Wilson’s return was triumphant as Pittsburgh beat the New York Jets last week. In his second start, I’m taking the under on his rushing yards prop. Elsewhere, I like Jaylen Warren to top his receiving yards prop and Daniel Jones to usurp his rushing yards prop.

Check out my Giants vs. Steelers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 28.

Giants vs. Steelers prop picks

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Best Bet: Wilson under 15.5 rushing yards (-120)

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Other than a slow start, Wilson’s first game with Pittsburgh couldn’t have gone much better.

The veteran quarterback completed 16-of-29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns. He also added a rushing touchdown, but he didn’t offer very much on the ground besides that.

Wilson finished the game with three carries for three yards. Limited rushing outputs from Mr. Unlimited, however, shouldn’t come as a shock.

He is returning from a calf injury that lingered throughout the offseason and into the regular season. Taking off with the football is likely a last resort for the Steelers QB.

Justin Fields is also still on the roster, serving as an option for Pittsburgh if the team wants to deploy a designed QB run.

Wilson visibly appears slower than he was in his prime. Bettors shouldn’t expect to see a vintage rushing performance, even if the Giants are ceding the fourth-most rushing yards per game to QBs (31.7).

Key stat: Wilson has finished with fewer than 15 rushing yards in three of his last four starts dating back to last season.

Quick picks

Warren over 12.5 receiving yards (-112): Warren should be able to beat this number in a plus matchup.

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The third-year pro is the team’s best receiver out of the backfield. He has topped this total in three of five games this year, including a 15-yard effort in Wilson’s debut last week.

The matchup is mouthwatering as New York is struggling to contain opposing backs in the passing game. The Giants are ceding the eighth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (39.9).

Jones over 26.5 rushing yards (-112): New York’s offensive line is banged up entering this game, and that’s tough news for Jones against a fierce Pittsburgh pass rush.

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Andrew Thomas is out for the year and Jermaine Eluemunor enters this contest at less than full health. That’s tough news ahead of a date against T.J. Watt and company.

I expect Jones to run from pressure all night and use his legs to generate offence. New York’s quarterback has topped this total in two of his last three games and will likely do so again for self-preservation.

Picks made at 9:47 a.m. ET 10/27/2024.