Steven Psihogios

One of the NHL’s brightest stars and a couple of underrated players make my prop picks list for Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Jack Hughes is on a tear and I expect that to continue against a poor goaltending team in the Colorado Avalanche. Stefan Noesen is producing consistently for the New Jersey Devils, too, and is a nice value to score. Thirdly, I’m picking Cole Perfetti to find the stat sheet.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 8.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Hughes to score 2+ points (+188)

This is a price I can get behind for a player who’s scorching the earth ahead of this contest.

Hughes has been sensational for New Jersey. He’s second on the team with 35 points in 29 games and a good chunk of that production has come recently. The superstar forward has 10 points in his last four contests.

It’s worth noting that Hughes has cashed this prop in each of those outings while six of his 10 points have come on the man advantage.

His, and the team’s, strong power-play results are encouraging to see ahead of this matchup. Colorado ranks a dreadful 27th on the penalty kill (72.6%) this season.

The Avs have struggled to keep the puck out of their net all year. They’re 31st in goals against (3.68), which makes this a great spot to back one of the league’s top forwards.

Key stat: The Avalanche have the worst save percentage (.861) in the NHL.

Quick picks

Noesen to score 1+ points (+100): Noesen doesn’t attract headlines the same way Hughes does, but he’s quietly putting together a solid season.

The veteran forward has 13 goals and 22 points across 29 games this campaign and three points in his last four outings.

What has me most excited about Noesen is his usage:

• Noesen skates on New Jersey’s first line alongside Nico Hischier and Timo Meier.
• He also plays on the team’s top power play with Hughes and Jesper Bratt.

That kind of deployment keeps Noesen in the offensive mix on most nights. This should be one of those games against an Avs squad that struggles on the penalty kill.

Perfetti to score 1+ points (+100): Perfetti is cold ahead of this contest but I like his prospects of turning things around.

The Winnipeg Jets forward is pointless in his last four games. He’s still tied for seventh in points (17) on a very deep Jets team despite his struggles.

Perfetti continues to get the kind of opportunities, however, that usually lead to point production. He’s on Winnipeg’s second line and first power play.

The latter piques my interest as the Jets battle the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus is 30th in goals against (3.65) but more importantly, it’s 29th on the penalty kill (71.4%).

This is a nice rebound spot to back Perfetti in.

Picks made at 9:51 a.m. 12/08/2024.

The Toronto Maple Leafs get a major piece back in the lineup for Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews returns, but his injury doesn’t make up for some more negative developments for Toronto. With a laundry list of banged-up players, I expect a low-scoring game. Additionally, I’m siding with Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for Nov. 30.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning

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Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-117)

On paper, you’d imagine both of these squads being very good over teams.

But that’s not true in the slightest. The under has been the right play for both teams despite the immense offensive star power both squads possess.

Here’s how the Leafs and Lightning have fared on the totals market this season:

• Toronto ranks sixth in unders percentage (59.1%)
• Tampa Bay is 15th in unders percentage (52.3%)

Both are in the upper half of the league in the category.

Toronto is playing a very low-event style of hockey this season, winning with defence and goaltending instead of offence.

• Toronto places 18th in goals per game (2.95)
• Toronto is third in goals against per game (2.59)

The Maple Leafs also have some offensive injuries that add to the appeal of the under.

Yes, Matthews is back, but they’re going to be without some key forwards. Max Domi, Max Pacioretty and Matthew Knies are all on injured reserve while Bobby McMann is day-to-day.

Toronto’s offensive upside is capped with a litany of forward injuries. Expect a low-scoring game on Saturday night.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs have gone under this total in 10 of their last 12 games.

Quick pick

Lightning moneyline (+120): There are a few reasons why I like Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.

The first is Toronto’s injury list. The team is potentially without four impactful forwards, which places pressure on a squad that doesn’t have much depth.

Additionally, the Bolts have been playing better recently. They’ve won five of their last eight games, scoring wins over top teams like the Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche.

Tampa Bay rested Andrei Vasilevskiy in last night’s victory over the Predators, which means he likely starts tonight. The star puck-stopper has done very well over his last dozen games, winning seven with a .925 save percentage.

NHL picks made at 12:13 p.m. ET on 11/30/24.

The Toronto Maple Leafs receive a significant boost to their lineup on Saturday with the return of Auston Matthews.

The pregame narrative: Matthews missed nine games for Toronto while tending to an upper-body injury. The team’s captain is back, though, and will aim to help his team beat a familiar foe in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Let’s take a look at his player betting odds for tonight’s game.

Check out our Matthews props for November 30 below.

Auston Matthews props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NHL odds as of 10:18 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

It’s been a minute since Matthews suited up for Toronto, so let’s refresh you on how he was doing before his upper-body injury,

The Maple Leafs captain was off to a quiet start by his standards. He had five goals and 11 points through 13 contests. Perhaps this upper-body injury contributed to his slowish start? It’s hard to tell as the team has been very mum on the matter.

Matthews did dress for Toronto’s lone game against Tampa Bay this campaign and it was one of his best performances of the season. He fired off six shots and tallied a goal in 5-2 win.

How should bettors wager on Matthews in his return? See my best bet below.

Best Matthews prop bet

Best Bet: Matthews to score (-106)

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I’ll take the bait.

I’m assuming the Maple Leafs superstar is healthy in this game. Toronto won seven of nine games without him, affording Matthews the luxury to rest without worrying about his team’s spot in the standings.

Although Matthews’ goal and point outputs were underwhelming, he generated a solid amount of shots per game. His 12.4 shots per 60 are only slightly below his 13.0 and 13.1 marks from each of the last two seasons.

The captain’s shot numbers dipped after his first six games, too, which could be related to his injury totals.

• 34 shots in his first six games (5.7 shots per game, three goals)
• 22 shots in his last seven games (3.1 shots per game, two goals)

If Matthews looks more like the player he was at the very beginning of this season, he should be able to pepper Andrei Vaslievskiy (tonight’s presumed starter) and beat him.

Key stat: Matthews has four goals in his last five games against Tampa Bay.

It’s a busier-than-usual Monday night of hockey as U.S. Thanksgiving approaches with 11 games on the schedule.

The pregame narrative: It’s a little early, but there may just be a Stanley Cup preview on the schedule with the Carolina Hurricanes hosting the Dallas Stars. Elsewhere, there should be plenty of offence and entertainment when the Colorado Avalanche battle the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Check out the latest NHL schedule and odds for Nov. 25 below.

NHL schedule

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Nashville Predators vs. New Jersey Devils

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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Philadelphia Flyers

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Dallas Stars vs. Carolina Hurricanes

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Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers

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St. Louis Blues vs. New York Rangers

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

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Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Islanders

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Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators

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Winnipeg Jets vs. Minnesota Wild

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Seattle Kraken vs. Anaheim Ducks

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Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks

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Betting insights

• New Jersey has won four of its last five games, covering as a puck-line favourite in three of those contests. Nashville, meanwhile, is hitting the under at the fourth-highest rate (66.7%) in the NHL.

• Don’t expect a high-scoring affair between Carolina and Dallas. The Hurricanes are cashing unders in 55% of their games, while the Stars are doing so at the fifth-highest clip (63.2%) in the league. The Canes (14-6) and Stars (13-6) both rank top four in wins in the NHL.

• Alexander Ovechkin will be out for quite some time, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Capitals can keep up their torrent pace without him. They’re the most profitable puck line team (+6.73 units), according to Scores and Odds, and have the fifth-best over record (11-7-2).

• Two of the NHL’s best offences collide, with Colorado and Tampa Bay doing battle. The Avs are tied for sixth in goals per game (3.48) while the Bolts rank fifth (3.58). Colorado has the fourth-best over percentage in the NHL (61.9%).

• You’re likely not going to find many goals between the Kraken and Ducks. Seattle places sixth in under percentage (61.9%), while Anaheim boasts the highest under percentage (71.1%).