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Saints vs. Packers Week 16 MNF prop picks: Bet on Jacobs, Love to top rushing props on Monday Night Football

The New Orleans Saints venture to Titletown for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Green Bay Packers.

The pregame narrative: New Orleans is beat up, and I’m not expecting this contest to be close. Green Bay should lean heavily on the run in a game where its opponent likely won’t be able to muster up much offence. I’m taking the over on Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love’s rushing yards props.

Check out my Saints vs. Packers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 23.

Saints vs. Packers prop picks

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Best Bet: Jacobs over 90.5 rushing yards (-117)

The Saints are absolutely decimated on offence.

Here’s the list of starters who won’t be playing on Monday:

Derek Carr (hand)
Chris Olave (concussion)
Alvin Kamara (groin)
Rashid Shaheed (meniscus)
Taysom Hill (knee)

Entering a game with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as your No. 1 wide receiver — a guy who wasn’t even on the roster to begin the year — is a troublesome scene.

But why does any of this matter?

Well, a skeleton crew makes New Orleans a pretty harmless group offensively.

That will surely impact how Green Bay calls plays on offence.

The Saints don’t pose much of a threat which means we’ll likely see a conservative offensive game plan from the Packers.

The team has been willing to run the offence through Jacobs and that should be the case again in primetime.

Jacobs has been an absolute workhorse for the Packers. Here are his numbers over the last seven games:

145 carries
607 rushing yards
11 rushing touchdowns

New Orleans is ceding the ninth-most rushing yards per game (104.9) to opposing backs and I expect Jacobs to feast.

Key stat: Jacobs has topped this total in four of his last seven games.

Quick pick

Love over 4.5 rushing yards (-121): Love is by no means a rushing quarterback.

Green Bay’s QB has 23 carries for a minuscule 75 rushing yards on the campaign and has fallen short of this mark in three of his last four games.

So why do I like Love to go over his rushing yards prop?

Well, New Orleans struggles to keep opposing QBs in the pocket. The Saints are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (26.2) to opposing passers.

Love recently played against the Detroit Lions, who allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (27.9), and he smashed this mark. He totalled four carries for 23 yards in that showing.

Green Bay’s gunslinger isn’t afraid to chuck it deep, but there’ll be no need in this contest. Expect him to pull the ball down and take the easy yards against New Orleans.

Picks made at 12:32 p.m. ET 12/22/2024.

Senators vs. Oilers prop pick Dec. 22: Bet on Norris to deliver at plus money

An All-Canadian matchup headlines Sunday’s action as the Ottawa Senators visit the Edmonton Oilers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing their second game in as many days and I expect this to be an offensive affair. Ottawa’s power play shouldn’t have any issues producing which is why I like Josh Norris to deliver.

Check out my Senators vs. Oilers prop picks for Dec. 22.

Senators vs. Oilers prop picks

Best Bet: Norris to score 1+ points (+105)

There’s one major mismatch in this game that has piqued my interest.

The matchup between Ottawa’s power play and Edmonton’s penalty kill skews heavily in favour of the Sens.

And that’s a big reason why I’m making this pick.

The Senators rank an excellent eighth in power-play percentage (23.9%) this season. The unit has been a consistent source of offensive production as the team has won seven of its last 10 games.

Edmonton’s penalty kill, meanwhile, has struggled mightily. It places a lowly 26th in penalty kill percentage (74.4%) and will be up against it on Sunday.

Norris is a featured member of Ottawa’s top power play and one of the team’s top scorers.

Fifth in points (21)
Fifth in power-play points (eight)

Special teams aside, Norris’ spot on the second line alongside Drake Batherson is a nice place to be for offensive production. Batherson is second on the Sens with 34 points.

Bet on a strong performance from Norris in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Norris has six points in his last nine games.

Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Senators vs. Oilers prop picks Dec. 22: Bet on Norris, Sanderson to deliver at plus money

An All-Canadian matchup headlines Sunday’s action as the Ottawa Senators visit the Edmonton Oilers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing their second game in as many days and I expect this to be an offensive affair. Ottawa’s power play shouldn’t have any issues producing which is why I like Josh Norris and Jake Sanderson to deliver.

Check out my Senators vs. Oilers prop picks for Dec. 22.

Senators vs. Oilers prop picks

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Best Bet: Norris to score 1+ points (+112)

There’s one major mismatch in this game that has piqued my interest.

The matchup between Ottawa’s power play and Edmonton’s penalty kill skews heavily in favour of the Sens.

And that’s a big reason why I’m making this pick.

The Senators rank an excellent eighth in power-play percentage (23.9%) this season. The unit has been a consistent source of offensive production as the team has won seven of its last 10 games.

Edmonton’s penalty kill, meanwhile, has struggled mightily. It places a lowly 26th in penalty kill percentage (74.4%) and will be up against it on Sunday.

Norris is a featured member of Ottawa’s top power play and one of the team’s top scorers.

Fifth in points (21)
Fifth in power-play points (eight)

Special teams aside, Norris’ spot on the second line alongside Drake Batherson is a nice place to be for offensive production. Batherson is second on the Sens with 34 points.

Bet on a strong performance from Norris in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Norris has six points in his last nine games.

Quick pick

Sanderson to score 1+ points (+128): Sanderson is another stellar power-play performer who should benefit from this matchup.

The rearguard is fourth on the team with 12 PPP. He quarterbacks the top unit and will see plenty of touches on the man advantage.

Sanderson is a bonafide workhorse who will see plenty of ice time. The young defenceman leads his team in time on ice per game (24:24) this campaign.

He’s in fine form ahead of this contest, too. Sanderson has a point in three of his last four games and is coming off a three-point outing against the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night.

Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Take the over, bet Lamb in +375 SGP

The Dallas Cowboys are back in primetime on Sunday Night Football, hosting the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay’s run-and-gun style of play should lead to plenty of points. I’m betting the over on a teased-down total in this contest. Additionally, I like Dallas stars CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle to go over in a pair of prop markets.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football’s Week 16 matchup.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Over 43.5 points + Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards + Dowdle over 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (+375)

Over 43.5 points (-220): Buccaneers games tend to have a boatload of points.

Tampa Bay’s 9-5 over record is among the best in the NFL. It’s beating its game total by 6.6 points on average, the third-highest margin of any team in the league.

It doesn’t take a deep dive into the advanced numbers to figure out why, either.

Baker Mayfield is leading one of the best offences in the league. The Bucs are tied for fifth in yards per play (6.1) and sit fourth in points per game (28.8).

They’re often having to score out of necessity. Most nights, their defence isn’t holding up its end of the bargain.

19th in points allowed per game (23.3)
T-24th in yards per play allowed (5.6)

The over on this total has cashed in eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games and each of Dallas’ last five.

Other parlay picks

Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards (-115): Cooper Rush knows where to go with the football.

The backup quarterback has been leaning on Lamb since taking over as starter. Here are the superstar receivers’ numbers since Week 10:

60 targets
41 receptions
71.5 receiving yards per game

Rush is locking in on his top target, putting Lamb in a prime position to take advantage of a weak Buccaneers secondary.

The Bucs allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game (154.0) to the position. They’re also surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (247.7) overall.

Lamb has topped this total in back-to-back games. Expect that streak to continue.

Dowdle over 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): Thirdly, I expect a big performance from Dowdle.

The running back has taken over as the team’s bell cow, logging 60-plus percent of the snaps in each of his last four games and 70-plus percent in each of his last three outings.

As a result, Dowdle has been stuffing the stat sheet during this four-game stretch:

84 carries
478 rushing yards
Seven receptions
33 receiving yards

His receiving totals have been underwhelming, but he should be able to have a strong day against a Bucs defence that can’t contain opposing backs in the passing game.

Tampa Bay is surrendering the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (42.8).

Dallas enters this contest as a slight underdog, meaning it should be in neutral or pass-friendly situations for most of this game. That should keep Dowdle involved and allow him to usurp this mark.

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. on 12/22/24.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 16 SNF prop picks: Bet on Lamb, Dowdle to have big games

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys in a Sunday Night Football matchup with plenty of shootout potential.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay’s all-offence, no-defence approach makes player prop overs an enticing weekly wager. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are two players I expect to take advantage of a weak Bucs pass defence and go over their receiving yards props.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 22.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop picks

Best Bet: Dowdle over 14.5 receiving yards (-112)

Dallas now has a bell-cow running back.

The Cowboys have been feeding Dowdle the rock ever since Dak Prescott’s season-ending hamstring injury. Here are his numbers in six games since Week 10:

106 rushing attempts
559 rushing yards
12 receptions
42 receiving yards

The receiving numbers aren’t anything to behold, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be heavily involved in the passing game on Sunday.

Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in the NFL at covering running backs in the passing game. The Bucs are ceding the third-most receiving yards per game (42.8) to opposing tailbacks, according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Dallas is a slight 3.5-point underdog in this matchup, which means this should be a fairly competitive contest. With the Cowboys likely staying in neutral or pass-first offensive situations throughout, Dowdle should be involved from start to finish.

Bet on Dowdle to put another strong performance together in prime time.

Key stat: Dowdle has logged 70-plus percent of the snaps in three consecutive games.

Quick pick

Lamb over 71.5 receiving yards (-120): Lamb should erupt for a massive performance on Sunday Night Football.

Cooper Rush is feeding Lamb with targets as the backup quarterback knows where his bread is buttered. Here’s how Lamb has fared in Rush’s six games as the starter:

10 targets per game
6.8 receptions per game
71.5 receiving yards per game

His average yards per contest mark is just short of what this line requires, but a plus matchup should help lift him over the mark.

The Bucs are surrendering the 10th-most receiving yards per game (154.0) to wide receivers.

Lamb will likely line up across from Jamel Dean in this contest, and Dean has struggled against some top wide receivers. He ceded 87 yards to Jameson Williams and 81 yards to Courtland Sutton, according to Player Profiler.

Lamb has topped this total in each of his last two games.

Picks made at 3:44 p.m. ET 12/21/2024.

Vikings vs. Seahawks Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Seattle in +100 ticket

The Minnesota Vikings battle the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC showdown with plenty of playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is chasing down the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while Seattle is fighting for a divisional title and a wild-card spot. I’m betting on Seattle to cover a teased-up spread in a low-scoring game.

Check out my Vikings vs. Seahawks same-game parlay predictions for Sunday, Dec. 22 at Lumen Field.

Vikings vs. Seahawks same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Seahawks +7.5 + Under 47.5 points + Jones over 16.5 (+280)

Seahawks +7.5 (-2564): This game means plenty for both teams and I expect them to put forth a solid effort.

Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss on Sunday Night Football in a contest where Geno Smith exited early with a knee injury. Smith is expected to return, along with running back Kenneth Walker III, who hasn’t played since Week 13.

A healthier offence should be able to keep pace with a Minnesota team playing outdoors. Sam Darnold’s numbers are noticeably worse in outdoor games:

Indoors (8 games): 2,051 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs
Outdoors (6 games): 1,479 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs

Expect Seattle to make this a competitive contest.

Other parlay picks

Under 47.5 points (-223): Darnold’s outdoor drop-off should help keep the scoring low, and so should the weather.

Definite rain is in the forecast, according to NFLWeather.com. Slick conditions will make it difficult for either team to throw the football.

The Vikings have played in some lower-scoring games in recent ventures outdoors. The under on this total has cashed in two of their last three such games, averaging a lowly total of 37.3 points per outing.

Inclement conditions will negatively impact a Seahawks offence that revolves around the pass. Seattle ranks fifth in pass play percentage (63.16%).

The under on this total has cashed in each of Seattle’s last four home games.

Picks made at 2:08 p.m. on 12/21/24.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 16 SNF prop picks: Bet on Lamb, Dowdle to have big games

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys in a Sunday Night Football matchup with plenty of shootout potential.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay’s all-offence, no-defence approach makes player prop overs an enticing weekly wager. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are two players I expect to take advantage of a weak Bucs pass defence and go over their receiving yards props.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 22.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop picks

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Best Bet: Dowdle over 15.5 receiving yards (-109)

Dallas now has a bell-cow running back.

The Cowboys have been feeding Dowdle the rock ever since Dak Prescott’s season-ending hamstring injury. Here are his numbers in six games since Week 10:

106 rushing attempts
559 rushing yards
12 receptions
42 receiving yards

The receiving numbers aren’t anything to behold, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be heavily involved in the passing game on Sunday.

Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in the NFL at covering running backs in the passing game. The Bucs are ceding the third-most receiving yards per game (42.8) to opposing tailbacks, according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Dallas is a slight 3.5-point underdog in this matchup, which means this should be a fairly competitive contest. With the Cowboys likely staying in neutral or pass-first offensive situations throughout, Dowdle should be involved from start to finish.

Bet on Dowdle to put another strong performance together in prime time.

Key stat: Dowdle has logged 70-plus percent of the snaps in three consecutive games.

Quick pick

Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards (-113): Lamb should erupt for a massive performance on Sunday Night Football.

Cooper Rush is feeding Lamb with targets as the backup quarterback knows where his bread is buttered. Here’s how Lamb has fared in Rush’s six games as the starter:

10 targets per game
6.8 receptions per game
71.5 receiving yards per game

His average yards per contest mark is just short of what this line requires, but a plus matchup should help lift him over the mark.

The Bucs are surrendering the 10th-most receiving yards per game (154.0) to wide receivers.

Lamb will likely line up across from Jamel Dean in this contest, and Dean has struggled against some top wide receivers. He ceded 87 yards to Jameson Williams and 81 yards to Courtland Sutton, according to Player Profiler.

Lamb has topped this total in each of his last two games.

Picks made at 3:44 p.m. ET 12/21/2024.

Vikings vs. Seahawks Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Seattle, Aaron Jones in +280 ticket

The Minnesota Vikings battle the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC showdown with plenty of playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is chasing down the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while Seattle is fighting for a divisional title and a wild-card spot. I’m betting on Seattle to cover a teased-up spread in a low-scoring game. Additionally, I’m backing Aaron Jones to clear a modest receiving yards line.

Check out my Vikings vs. Seahawks same-game parlay predictions for Sunday, Dec. 22 at Lumen Field.

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Vikings vs. Seahawks same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Seahawks +7.5 + Under 47.5 points + Jones over 16.5 (+280)

Seahawks +7.5 (-250): This game means plenty for both teams and I expect them to put forth a solid effort.

Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss on Sunday Night Football in a contest where Geno Smith exited early with a knee injury. Smith is expected to return, along with running back Kenneth Walker III, who hasn’t played since Week 13.

A healthier offence should be able to keep pace with a Minnesota team playing outdoors. Sam Darnold’s numbers are noticeably worse in outdoor games:

Indoors (8 games): 2,051 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs
Outdoors (6 games): 1,479 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs

Expect Seattle to make this a competitive contest.

Other parlay picks

Under 47.5 points (-230): Darnold’s outdoor drop-off should help keep the scoring low, and so should the weather.

Definite rain is in the forecast, according to NFLWeather.com. Slick conditions will make it difficult for either team to throw the football.

The Vikings have played in some lower-scoring games in recent ventures outdoors. The under on this total has cashed in two of their last three such games, averaging a lowly total of 37.3 points per outing.

Inclement conditions will negatively impact a Seahawks offence that revolves around the pass. Seattle ranks fifth in pass play percentage (63.16%).

The under on this total has cashed in each of Seattle’s last four home games.

Jones over 16.5 receiving yards (-109): Thirdly, I’m taking the over on Jones’ receiving yards prop.

Short passes will likely serve as an extension of the run game for Minnesota in difficult weather. Jones is one of the league’s best dual-threat backs, ranking 12th in receiving yards (322) this season while tying for ninth with a pair of receiving touchdowns.

Seattle has been a plus matchup for running backs as receivers this season. The Seahawks allow the 11th-most receiving yards per game (36.4) to the position, according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Jones has topped this mark in nine of 14 games this season.

Picks made at 2:08 p.m. on 12/21/24.

Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders Dec. 21: Bet on Rielly, Horvat to notch a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home from a short trip to Buffalo to battle the New York Islanders.

The pregame narrative: It’s the holiday season, and I expect this matchup between the Maple Leafs and Islanders to give bettors plenty of offence. Morgan Rielly and Bo Horvat are two players who caught my attention in the prop market for Saturday’s matchup.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders for the game on Dec. 21.

Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders

Best Bet: Rielly to score 1+ points (-107)

This seems like a great spot to target Rielly.

The Maple Leafs rearguard is trending up after notching a point in back-to-back games.

Rielly appears to be fully engaged for the Maple Leafs ahead of the Christmas and holiday break, too, as he dropped the gloves with Buffalo Sabres star Tage Thompson in Friday night’s contest.

Mostly, Rielly’s spot on the top power play intrigues me against the Isles. New York sports the worst penalty-kill percentage (64.3%) in the NHL.

A poor penalty kill and unimpressive goaltending are two uncharacteristic traits plaguing the Islanders this season. Both work in Rielly — and Toronto’s — favour on Saturday night.

Key stat: New York ranks 22nd in save percentage (.892) this season.

Quick pick

Horvat to score 1+ points (+100): I typically target players skating on PP1 in this market, but I’m willing to make an exception for the Islanders.

The reason is that New York has the worst power-play percentage (12.1%) in the league this year.

Yes, the Islanders have the worst PP and PK in the NHL this season.

But this is a nice price to back Horvat. The centre is second among all Isles forwards in ice time (20:07) and third in points (22).

Horvat has been productive in recent outings, too, registering eight points in his last 10 outings.

Joseph Woll will likely start after Matt Murray tended the twine on Friday. Woll has allowed three goals in three of his last four starts.

Picks made at 10:31 a.m. on 12/21/2024.

Clemson vs. Texas CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Longhorns to cover in +400 ticket

The Clemson Tigers’ unlikely run to the college football playoff meets a stiff test against the Texas Longhorns.

The pregame narrative: Texas looks the part of a true contender, but I can’t say the same about Clemson. I expect the Longhorns to cover the spread thanks to a strong defensive showing. That also has me backing the under on the game total and Cade Klubnik’s passing yards prop.

Check out my top Clemson vs. Texas predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.

Clemson vs. Texas predictions

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Parlay: Texas -13 + Klubnik under 215.5 passing yards + Under 50.5 points (+400)

Texas -13 (-112): Clemson is deserving of a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff, but that doesn’t mean it matches up well against Texas.

I struggle to see how the Tigers will score points on Saturday. They had a very difficult time producing against solid defensive teams this season.

Here’s a look at some notable results:

3 points vs. Georgia (34-3 loss)
21 points vs. Louisville (33-21 loss)
14 points vs. South Carolina (17-14 loss)

Texas figures to be its toughest test yet. The Longhorns rank second in expected points added (EPA) per pass (-0.36), according to gameonpaper.com, and are ceding the second-fewest yards per game (249.8).

Texas’ only losses were to Georgia, and it covered or pushed on this spread in eight of 13 games overall.

Other parlay picks

Klubnik under 215.5 passing yards (-120): This could be a really ugly outing for Klubnik.

The Clemson quarterback is enjoying modest success this season, but he struggled mightily against the aforementioned defences.

Here’s how Klubnik performed in those three games:

142 passing yards, zero TDs vs. Georgia
228 passing yards, one TD vs. Louisville
280 passing yards, zero TDs vs. South Carolina

The Longhorns ceded the fewest passing yards per game (143.1) to opposing passers, and I don’t expect Klubnik to have an above-average day against this defence.

Under 50.5 points (-110): Lastly, I’m taking the under on the game total.

I expect this contest to look similar to Clemson’s lopsided loss to Georgia in the season opener.

Texas’ defence is capable of stymying even the toughest of offences. Georgia needed overtime to score 22 on the unit last week.

The under on this total has cashed in each of the Longhorns’ last four outings.

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 12/21/24.