Steven Psihogios

One moneyline pick and two underdog teams against the spread find their way onto my NFL Week 17 parlay picks.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Vikings have exceeded expectations, but I’m betting they lose to the Green Bay Packers. The Atlanta Falcons have new life and should cover against the Washington Commanders. Thirdly, I like the San Francisco 49ers to keep it close on Monday Night Football.

Check out my NFL Week 17 parlay picks below.

NFL Week 17 parlay picks

Parlay: Packers moneyline + Falcons +7.5 + 49ers +3.5 (+450)

Packers moneyline (-108): Green Bay is one of the top teams in the NFC, but it still has something to prove.

The Packers have yet to earn a win over one of the NFC North’s elite.

Green Bay is a combined 0-3 against the Vikings and Detroit Lions. The last time it played Minnesota was in Week 4, and the Packers played an uncharacteristically poor first half en route to a 31-29 loss.

Jordan Love struggled to deal with Minnesota’s blitzing defence and threw two first-half interceptions. Green Bay also missed two field goals in the first half which proved costly.

Love handled the blitz much better in the fourth quarter, though, tossing three touchdown passes while bringing Green Bay back into the fight.

I expect Love to light up a Vikings defence ceding the third-most passing yards per game (248.7) and lead Green Bay to its first impressive division win this campaign.

Other parlay picks

Falcons +7.5 (-200): The Falcons are back in control of the NFC South.

A lopsided win over the New York Giants in Michael Penix Jr.’s debut and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the Dallas Cowboys put Atlanta back on top.

The Falcons need to keep piling up wins to stay ahead, and I’m betting they can at least keep this within a touchdown.

Washington is coming off an emotional 36-33 win against the Philadelphia Eagles and doesn’t need this game nearly as much.

The Commanders’ chances of making the playoffs will only drop to 86% with a loss in this contest, whereas Atlanta’s will fall to 36% with a loss.

The Falcons should be able to take pressure off Penix in this game and lean on Bijan Robinson and the rushing attack. Washington is tied for allowing the third-most yards per rush (4.8) in the NFL.

49ers +3.5 (-112): Thirdly, I’m betting on San Francisco giving the Detroit Lions a game.

San Francisco won’t be making the playoffs and this game is about all it has left to look forward to. The 49ers beat the Lions in the NFC title game last season in one of the most emotional outings of the year.

Sure, Detroit would like to exact some revenge — but can it?

The Lions are severely depleted on defence and will play their second road game in as many weeks. They were able to beat up a bad Chicago Bears team, but I think there’s enough talent on this Niners team to give them a game.

Detroit has allowed the third-most points per game (32.0) over the last three weeks while San Francisco is 10th in yards per play (5.8) over the same stretch.

NFL picks made at 12:29 p.m. on 12/26/24.

The Los Angeles Rams aim to stay firmly atop the NFC West with a win over the Arizona Cardinals.

The pregame narrative: Kyren Williams is a true workhorse, and he shouldn’t have any problem torching a horrid Arizona run defence. The Cards, meanwhile, will aim to keep pace with the high-flying Rams and that likely means a productive game for Trey McBride.

Check out my Cardinals vs. Rams prop picks for Dec. 28.

Cardinals vs. Rams prop picks

Best Bet: Williams over 105.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120)

This is a high total for most running backs, but a manageable line for Williams.

Head coach Sean McVay leans heavily on his top running back. Williams is one of only three RBs with over 300 carries this season (303). The other two? Saquon Barkley (314) and Derrick Henry (305).

Heavy workloads have been especially common lately. Williams has a whopping 81 carries across his last three games and he’s turned that into a modest 317 rushing yards.

The Rams enter this contest as favourites and should be in run-friendly scenarios throughout the game. That should set Williams up for another large workload.

A similar volume will almost surely vault Williams over this mark again in Week 17. Arizona is one of the worst run defences in the league.

• The Cardinals are tied for ceding the league’s sixth-most yards per carry (4.7).
  
• Arizona also surrenders the ninth-most receiving yards per game (37.9) to opposing backs, per CBS Sports.

Key stat: Williams has topped this total in three of his last four games.

Quick pick

McBride over 60.5 receiving yards (-120): McBride was rolling before his three-catch, 20-yard performance in Week 16. I expect him to get back on track in Week 17.

McBride was averaging 91.4 receiving yards per game in the five games before his dud. The tight end is averaging 68.2 receiving yards per game on the campaign and paces his team in receiving yards (958).

The versatile playmaker will aim to take advantage of a plus matchup against the Rams.

Los Angeles’ defence hasn’t been able to contain tight ends this year. The Rams are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (57.2) to opposing TEs this season.

McBride was very efficient in this matchup earlier this season. He caught all six of his targets for 67 yards.

He’s topped this mark in eight of 14 games this season.

Picks made at 11:08 a.m. ET 12/26/2024.

The Seattle Seahawks’ playoff hopes are dwindling, but they still remain in the hunt for the NFC West crown.

The pregame narrative: The Chicago Bears have nothing to play for as another disappointing season nears its conclusion. I am, however, betting on D’Andre Swift to have a strong showing. Additionally, Noah Fant should top his receiving yards prop in this contest.

Check out my Seahawks vs. Bears prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 26.

Seahawks vs. Bears prop picks

Best Bet: Swift over 12.5 receiving yards (-120)

It’s been a trying year for almost everybody on the Bears; Swift included.

He’s having the most inefficient year of his career as a rusher, averaging a minuscule 3.8 yards per carry. He has five rushing touchdowns on the campaign and none since Week 10.

I highly suggest bettors steer clear of Swift’s rushing props, but targeting his receiving line isn’t a bad move.

The running back is averaging 23.9 receiving yards per game in 2024, putting him well above this line.

Additionally, the matchup is enticing as Seattle has struggled to limit tailbacks as receivers.

The Seahawks are ceding the 10th-most receiving yards per game (36.3) to opposing running backs, according to Yahoo Fantasy.

Here is how running backs have fared as receivers in recent matchups against Seattle:

• Week 16: Aaron Jones, 26 receiving yards
• Week 15: Josh Jacobs, 42 receiving yards
• Week 14: James Conner, 32 receiving yards
• Week 13: Isaiah Davis, 28 receiving yards
• Week 12: James Conner, 41 receiving yards
• Week 11: Christian McCaffrey, 27 receiving yards

A running back has cleared this total in all six games since Seattle’s bye week. Expect Swift to keep the trend alive on Thursday.

Key stat: Swift has topped this total in four of his last six games.

Quick pick

Fant over 30.5 receiving yards (-120): Seattle’s offence isn’t short on playmakers.

D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are top receiving talents, while Kenneth Walker (out for Week 17) and Zach Charbonnet form a potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield.

Fant doesn’t attract many headlines, but the athletic tight end is a versatile receiving option.

His usage is up in recent outings, too, recording 13 targets across his last two games. He’s coming off one of his best outings of the year, totalling 50 yards on three receptions against the Minnesota Vikings.

His outlook is positive on Thursday, considering the matchup. Chicago is ceding the sixth-most receiving yards per game (60.6) to opposing tight ends.

Picks made at 9:21 a.m. ET 12/26/2024.

The NFL’s Christmas Day remix puts four of the AFC’s elite in action on Wednesday.

The latest: The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a win against the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Naturally, the two find themselves as favourites as they swap opponents.

Check out the latest NFL Week 17 Christmas Day odds below.

NFL Week 17 Christmas Day odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

Betting Insights

• This will be Kansas City’s second consecutive Christmas Day game. The Chiefs shockingly lost to the Las Vegas Raiders, 20-14, last year where opposing quarterback Aidan O’Connell only completed nine passes. They’ll be on the road this year, however.

• Pittsburgh is reeling, and its grip on first in the AFC North is slipping. A loss on Christmas Day could drop it into a wild-card spot. The Steelers have lost back-to-back games and are in tough for a third consecutive week.

• Baltimore is the team gaining fast on Pittsburgh. The two are tied atop the division, but the Ravens bested the Steelers on Saturday and have won three of their last four. Lamar Jackson is killing teams through the air, totalling eight passing touchdowns in his last two games.

• The Texans have locked up the AFC South, but that has more to do with the division than they’re own play. Houston is a good-not-great 9-6 but has lost four of its last seven outings. C.J. Stroud isn’t protecting the football, posting three multi-pick performances in his last six games.

The New Orleans Saints venture to Titletown for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Green Bay Packers.

The pregame narrative: New Orleans is beat up, and I’m not expecting this contest to be close. Green Bay should lean heavily on the run in a game where its opponent likely won’t be able to muster up much offence. I’m taking the over on Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love’s rushing yards props.

Check out my Saints vs. Packers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 23.

Saints vs. Packers prop picks

Best Bet: Jacobs over 89.5 rushing yards (-118)

The Saints are absolutely decimated on offence.

Here’s the list of starters who won’t be playing on Monday:

• Derek Carr (hand)
• Chris Olave (concussion)
• Alvin Kamara (groin)
• Rashid Shaheed (meniscus)
• Taysom Hill (knee)

Entering a game with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as your No. 1 wide receiver — a guy who wasn’t even on the roster to begin the year — is a troublesome scene.

But why does any of this matter?

Well, a skeleton crew makes New Orleans a pretty harmless group offensively.

That will surely impact how Green Bay calls plays on offence.

The Saints don’t pose much of a threat which means we’ll likely see a conservative offensive game plan from the Packers.

The team has been willing to run the offence through Jacobs and that should be the case again in primetime.

Jacobs has been an absolute workhorse for the Packers. Here are his numbers over the last seven games:

• 145 carries
• 607 rushing yards
• 11 rushing touchdowns

New Orleans is ceding the ninth-most rushing yards per game (104.9) to opposing backs and I expect Jacobs to feast.

Key stat: Jacobs has topped this total in four of his last seven games.

Quick pick

Love over 5.5 rushing yards (-120): Love is by no means a rushing quarterback.

Green Bay’s QB has 23 carries for a minuscule 75 rushing yards on the campaign and has fallen short of this mark in three of his last four games.

So why do I like Love to go over his rushing yards prop?

Well, New Orleans struggles to keep opposing QBs in the pocket. The Saints are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (26.2) to opposing passers.

Love recently played against the Detroit Lions, who allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (27.9), and he smashed this mark. He totalled four carries for 23 yards in that showing.

Green Bay’s gunslinger isn’t afraid to chuck it deep, but there’ll be no need in this contest. Expect him to pull the ball down and take the easy yards against New Orleans.

Picks made at 12:32 p.m. ET 12/22/2024.