Staff Writer

Best MLB prop bets April 26: Pick Jonathan Aranda to cash plus-money prop

A pair of hitters and a pitcher are at the centre of Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jonathan Aranda and Gavin Lux are enjoying solid starts to their campaigns. Both are excellent choices to cash the over on their bases props. Thirdly, I’m taking the over on Grant Holmes‘ strikeouts prop.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 26.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+185)

Aranda’s ability to hit for average and power makes him a solid choice to clear this prop on most nights.

The Tampa Bay Rays infielder is dominating to begin 2025. Aranda is batting an impressive .311 and isn’t just relying on weak contact to reach base.

8 doubles (t-10th in MLB)
4 home runs (t-51st)
.581 SLG (9th)

Overall, his 12 extra-base hits this season are tied for 15th in the majors. Aranda’s knack for swatting extra-base hits makes him a threat to cash this wager in one plate appearance.

Additionally, a glance at his Baseball Savant pages shows that this success is no fluke. Check out Aranda’s percentile rankings in some key batted-ball metrics:

98th percentile xSLG (.645)

96th percentile average exit velocity (94.8 mph)

99th percentile hard hit rate (61.4%)

90th percentile barrel rate (17.5%)

The reason why his outlook is especially appealing tonight is the pitcher he’ll be facing. The Rays battle Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres, and the righty has been dreadful to start the campaign.

Cease has a 6.04 ERA and is ceding a .289 batting average to opposing hitters.

Bet on Aranda to take advantage in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Aranda’s 43 total bases are tied for 41st across MLB.

Best MLB picks

Lux over 1.5 bases (+116): Lux is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball heading into this contest.

Here are Lux’s numbers over his last nine games:

.484 BA
.645 SLG
20 bases

Lux isn’t just a guy on a heater, either; he looks like a player who’s setting the stage for a breakout campaign. The Cincinnati Reds utility man is batting .316 in 2025.

There has never been much power in Lux’s profile, but the hope is he can do repeated damage against a pitcher he’s fared well against in the past.

Lux and the Reds battle the Colorado Rockies with Antonio Senzatela getting the ball. The Reds infielder is a strong 8-for-20 against Senzatela in his career.

Playing at the hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight won’t hurt his chances, either.

Holmes over 4.5 strikeouts (+116): This is a pretty fair line for a pitcher playing as well as Holmes.

The Atlanta Braves starter has been nearly unhittable, limiting opposing batters to a puny .169 batting average this season.

He’s also posted pretty solid strikeout numbers. Holmes has totalled 17 Ks across his last three starts, topping this number twice.

He battles an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that does have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (18.9%), but his stuff can still play against them.

Holmes’ best out pitch is his slider, which generates a 35.8% whiff rate. Arizona is right around league average in whiff rate against sliders (32.6%, 16th in MLB).

MLB prop picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 04/26/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions SGP Game 4: Bet on Toronto to end series in +390 ticket

The Toronto Maple Leafs have their first chance to knock out the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can advance to the second round with a win. I’m betting on the squad, as slight underdogs, to do just that. Elsewhere, I’m taking the under as I expect both teams to be tense in an elimination game, but I like Mitch Marner‘s chances of scoring a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators playoff SGP predictions for Game 4 on April 26.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions

Parlay: Maple Leafs ML | Under 5.5 goals | Marner to score 1+ points (+390)

Embed: #113005

Maple Leafs moneyline (-104): Outside of a lopsided Game 1 victory, this series has been extremely tight.

Toronto needed overtime in Games 2 and 3 to beat Ottawa, continuing a trend of close playoff victories for the team.

Nine of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 playoff victories have been by just one goal. Furthermore, six of those have come in overtime.

So while the juicier odds of backing Toronto’s puck line or 60-minute moneyline may be appealing, bettors have been warned that the Maple Leafs’ track record suggests otherwise.

The reason why I’m picking Toronto to win this contest boils down to experience. The Maple Leafs are in their ninth consecutive postseason run; the Senators are in their first since 2017.

Ottawa didn’t handle its initial playoff test well, losing 6-2 to Toronto. I don’t expect it to be great in a nerve-filled elimination game. Bet on Toronto to prevail.

NHL SGP legs

Under 5.5 goals (-103): Ottawa has kept the last couple of games close by limiting Toronto’s shot totals and largely playing mistake-free hockey. I don’t expect the Sens to deviate from the plan.

The Senators were guilty of racking up 38 penalty minutes in Game 1. Since then, they combined for just 12 penalty minutes in Games 2 and 3. Toronto has played a fairly clean brand of hockey, only accumulating 20 penalty minutes in its last two outings.

If power-play opportunities remain limited, it’s difficult to see either team racking up goals.

The Maple Leafs have been able to rely on stellar goaltending all series long. Anthony Stolarz has a .926 save percentage through three outings.

Marner to score 1+ points (-275): Offensive fireworks may be minimal, but I expect Marner to continue finding the score sheet.

The Maple Leafs winger has produced a point in all three games of this series, totalling six ahead of Game 4.

Marner has consistently performed well against the Sens throughout his career. He has 46 points in 41 career matchups (including playoffs).

The playmaking forward enters Saturday tied for third in postseason assists (five) and sixth in playoff points (six).

Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 04/26/2025.

NFL draft odds for the 2025 No. 1 overall pick: Cam Ward lengthens as favourite choice for Titans

The NFL Draft is this Thursday, and Cam Ward is the prohibitive favourite to go first overall.

The latest: Nobody is rushing to label any of the quarterbacks in this class as generational, but Ward has emerged as the Tennessee Titans’ man. Top talents like Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter are the logical non-QB pivots if there were to be a shock on April 24.

Here are the latest NFL draft odds as of April 21.

NFL draft odds: No. 1 pick

Check out the latest odds for the NFL No. 1 overall pick. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Player	Odds (April 21)	Odds (March 30)
Cam Ward	-10,000	-1,667
Abdul Carter	+2,000	+800
Travis Hunter	+3,000	+1,600
Shedeur Sanders	+5,000	+4,000
Mason Graham	+8,000	+8,000
Armand Membou	+8,000	+8,000

NFL draft odds as of 11:22 a.m. on 04/21/25

Best NFL draft odds

The favourite: Cam Ward (-10,000)

There was no clear first-overall pick entering the 2024 college football season.

But Ward’s play gave him as good a case as any to hear his name called at the top of the 2025 draft.

The Miami Hurricanes quarterback built on a solid junior campaign with a terrific showing as a senior. He completed 67.2% of his passes and led the ACC with:

39 passing TDs (also led FBS)
9.5 yards per attempt
172.2 passing efficiency rating

Ward also did a fantastic job taking care of the football, throwing only seven interceptions for the second consecutive campaign.

His stellar play resulted in team success for the Hurricanes, too, as he led his squad to a 9-0 start. Miami lost three of four games to close out the year, but it wasn’t because of Ward. The quarterback threw 10 touchdowns to one interception during that stretch.

The Titans need a quarterback, and all signs point to them going with Ward.

According to Adam Schefter on Monday, Tennessee turned down a trade package with the New York Giants, who were looking to acquire the top pick.

Other choices to go No. 1 overall

Abdul Carter (+2,000): If Tennessee holds onto the top pick and opts for a best-player-available strategy, Carter seems like the logical option.

The All-American edge rusher dominated opposing offensive lines in 2024. In 16 games, he finished with a whopping 12 sacks and an FBS-best 24 tackles for loss.

His strong results earned him Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honours.

Carter recently learned that he has a stress reaction in his right foot, though he’s expected to avoid surgery and participate in Penn State’s pro day on March 28.

Travis Hunter (+3,000): Is Hunter a cornerback or a wide receiver? Coming out of the combine, there isn’t any clarity with that.

Hunter was officially listed as a defensive back during combine week, but his first meeting with a team came as a wide receiver. The Heisman Trophy winner, who didn’t participate in drills at the combine, believes he can be both at the NFL level.

If that turns out to be true, his best fit might be with a team that’s willing to give him a genuine two-way opportunity.

Would the Titans be willing to conduct that experiment? They could certainly use help in the defensive backfield, and head coach Brian Callahan said in late February that it’s “very realistic” for Hunter to play both ways as a pro.

In 2024, Hunter led the Big 12 in receptions (96) and touchdowns (15) while amassing 1,258 receiving yards. Defensively, he tallied four interceptions and 11 pass breakups.

With heightened buzz about Ward, though, Hunter’s odds to go No. 1 have doubled since the combine.

Senators Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP picks: Bet on Ottawa to win, Stutzle to shine in +460 parlay

The Ottawa Senators have a prime opportunity to play spoiler against their biggest rival, the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The pregame narrative: There’s a case to be made that this is the best-case scenario matchup for the Senators. Those expecting Ottawa to play spoiler have to like its chances in Game 1. Additionally, wagers on the over and a Tim Stutzle point round out this juicy plus-money play.

Check out my Senators Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP picks for April 20.

Senators Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions

Ottawa moneyline | Over 5.5 goals | Stutzle to score 1+ points (+460)

Embed: #112682

Senators moneyline (+135): Those who like to bet trends will be looking to ride Ottawa early in this series.

The Senators have won five consecutive games against the Maple Leafs, winning four of those contests by two-plus goals.

Bettors who pay close attention to advanced numbers may also favour Ottawa in this series.

Toronto ranks an abysmal:

29th in Corsi percentage (47.38)

23rd in expected goals percentage (48.50)

23rd in scoring chances percentage (48.45)

Toronto benefited mightily from solid goaltending courtesy of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, but it might be a prime candidate for some regression.

NHL SGP legs

Over 5.5 goals (-110): Let’s dive further into the regression case against the Maple Leafs.

Toronto finished with the second-best save percentage in the league this season (.926), but can its goaltending duo hold up in the playoffs?

It’s fair to be skeptical. Stolarz and Woll have only combined for eight playoff appearances, leaving room for doubt that either can hold up in the postseason.

Conversely, Ottawa could be in store for some progression. The Sens had the third-worst shooting percentage in the NHL this season (7.62).

An uptick in goal output will help push Game 1 over this total.

The over on this number has cashed in each of Ottawa’s last five games and three of its last five contests against Toronto.

Stutzle to score 1+ points (-132): This is a natural extension of the first two legs.

Stutzle was Ottawa’s leading point scorer this season, finishing the campaign with 79 points.

He was especially productive against the Maple Leafs, notching a point in all three contests.

Stutzle has an impressive track record against Toronto. He has 23 points in 24 games, representing the most points he’s scored against any team.

The German forward was heating up before the playoffs, totalling seven points in his last three outings.

Senators Battle of Ontario SGP predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.

Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP: Back Toronto to win, Knies to produce in +285 ticket

The Battle of Ontario renews in the Stanley Cup playoffs as the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Ottawa Senators.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won the Atlantic division, setting up a date with its provincial rival. In this Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario SGP, I’m backing the Buds to win, the over on the game total, and Matthew Knies to deliver a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions for April 20.

Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions

Toronto moneyline | Over 5.5 goals | Knies to score 1+ points (+285)

Embed: #112683

Maple Leafs moneyline (-159): Toronto struggled mightily against Ottawa this past season.

The Maple Leafs lost all three meetings to the Senators, marking five consecutive losses to the Sens. Four of those contests have been decided by two-plus goals, meaning Ottawa has managed to win convincingly.

But the playoffs are a different beast entirely, and those backing Toronto will be looking to throw all that in the past.

The Maple Leafs profile as the more well-rounded squad. Toronto ranked:

7th in goals per game (3.26)

8th in goals against per game (2.79)

2nd in team save percentage (.926)

Ottawa didn’t finish the season top 10 in any of the above categories, and doesn’t have the same high-end talent as Toronto.

Expect a statement from Auston Matthews and company in Game 1.

NHL SGP legs

Over 5.5 goals (-110): Offensive outputs typically dip in the postseason, but I expect plenty of fireworks in Game 1 of this series.

The Senators were one of the highest-scoring teams at the end of the regular season. Ottawa eclipsed this total in five consecutive games, averaging eight combined goals per outing.

Additionally, the game total has gone over this mark in three of the last five matchups between these two Ontario teams.

Toronto boasts elite offensive star power, but it also has an unproven goaltending tandem. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were excellent in the regular season, but the two have eight playoff appearances combined.

It wouldn’t be shocking if the Maple Leafs struggle to receive consistent goaltending in the playoffs.

Knies to score 1+ points (-137): If there’s going to be lots of offences, Knies will likely be playing a key part in it.

The young winger has become an integral part of Toronto’s offensive attack. He finished fifth on the Leafs with 58 points this past season and ended the campaign in fine form.

Knies has a point in five of his last eight games, including a trio of multi-point performances.

Playing on the power play with Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander certainly helps his chances of scoring a point.

Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario SGP predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.

Avalanche vs. Stars Game 1 prop pick: Bet on strong outing from Matt Duchene

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars begin one of the most anticipated series of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: The two best teams in the NHL might just be meeting in the first round. Dallas and Colorado are loaded with offensive star power, and I’m betting on Matt Duchene to find the scoresheet.

Check out my Avalanche vs. Stars prop pick for Game 1 of the opening round.

Avalanche vs. Stars prop pick

Best Bet: Duchene to score 1+ points (-130)

This is a very fair line for somebody who has been Dallas’s most consistent contributor this season.

Duchene scored more points than anybody else wearing a Stars jersey this season, with 82 in 82 contests.

The veteran forward also finds himself in prime positions to produce. He centres Dallas’ top power-play unit and its second line, skating alongside Mason Marchment and the recently returned Tyler Seguin.

Duchene is in fine form ahead of this contest, too. He has a point in eight of his last 11 games and 23 of his last 29.

The benefit of betting on a player like Duchene is that he can get it done as a shooter or a playmaker. Duchene hit the 30-goal plateau for the fourth time this past season and notched a career-high 52 assists.

There should be some extra motivation from Duchene in this series, as he was drafted by the Avs and spent eight seasons with the squad.

Expect him to be one of the Stars’ leading producers in this series.

Key stat: Duchene recorded a point in all three of his outings against the Avalanche this past season.

Avalanche vs. Stars prop pick made at 11:50 a.m. ET 04/19/2025.

Avalanche vs. Stars Game 1 prop picks: Bet on strong outing from Matt Duchene

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars begin one of the most anticipated series of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: The two best teams in the NHL might just be meeting in the first round. Dallas and Colorado are loaded with offensive star power, and I’m betting on a pair of forwards — Matt Duchene and Jonathan Drouin — to find the scoresheet.

Check out my Avalanche vs. Stars prop picks for Game 1 of the opening round.

Avalanche vs. Stars prop picks

Best Bet: Duchene to score 1+ points (-125)