The Italian Open continues to roll along with more matches on the way this Sunday.
Today’s Italian Open narrative: Nobody is in finer form than Casper Ruud, and that makes him a great pick to beat crowd favourite Matteo Berrettini. Elsewhere, I’m betting on Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Fils to go the distance, and Tommy Paul to cruise past Tomas Machac.
Check out my Italian Open best bets for May 11.
Italian Open best bets
Best Bet: Ruud -1.5 sets (+145)
It’s hard not to back somebody competing as well as Ruud is.
The Norwegian star is arguably playing the best tennis of his career. He’s coming off his first-ever Masters 1000 title after winning the Madrid Open and beating Alexander Bublik in three sets to begin his run in Rome.
His track record on clay is difficult to ignore. Ruud is an impressive 10-2 on this surface in 2025, and an eye-popping 246-104 lifetime.
Winning via straight sets has been a common occurrence for Ruud. Eight of his 10 wins on clay this year have been of the variety.
Berrettini, who is an elder statesman at this stage, sports a solid 102-43 career record on clay. His 4-2 record in 2025, however, isn’t quite as noteworthy.
There are also health concerns with Berrettini. The Italian had to retire in his second match at the Madrid Open because of injury.
It will take a special effort from a special competitor to beat Ruud, or even take a set from him. I don’t have high hopes for Berrettini.
Key stat: Ruud is 3-1 in his four matches against Berrettini on clay.
Quick pick
Fils vs Tsitsipas over 2.5 sets (+120): Fils vs. Tsitsipas shapes up as the most competitive match from Sunday’s slate.
Historically, Fils has dominated Tsitsipas. The Frenhcman has won all five sets he’s played against Tsitsipas, but a deeper dive shows that these two are on near-equal footing.
Three of the five sets played between these two competitors have required a tiebreak. Only one has been played on clay, however, and Tsitsipas was forced to retire due to injury after just two games.
Clay favours Tsitsipas, too, as he owns a sterling 190-59 record on this surface. Fils is a much less impressive 87-54 on clay.
Fils is 7-3 on clay this year and playing some excellent tennis. This contest should be tight, and I will gladly take the plus-money odds for it to go the distance.
Paul -1.5 sets (+155): In Sunday’s Tommy vs. Tomas battle, I’m backing the former to beat the latter.
Paul has struggled against Machac in the past, losing both of their head-to-head battles. Those contests were on the hardcourts, however, and a surface change should do Paul a world of good.
Machac hasn’t been very good on clay in recent years. He’s 2-2 this year and 11-7 since 2024.
Paul, however, is 5-2 on clay in 2025 and 15-6 since last year.
Three of Paul’s five wins on the surface this year have been via straight sets.
Machac has lost two of his last three matches ahead of this matchup.
Italian Open predictions made at 12:45 p.m. on 05/10/2025.
