Staff Writer

Rangers vs. Mariners SGP predictions Aug. 3: Back Texas, deGrom in +350 ticket

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners close out a crucial AL West series on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Texas and Seattle are both closely trailing the Houston Astros for first place in the division, making a win for either side crucial. A pitching edge makes the Rangers my pick to win a close, low-scoring contest.

Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Jacob deGrom.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Rangers ML | deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts | Under 9.5 runs (+350)

Rangers moneyline (-141): Backing Texas when deGrom is on the mound is usually a smart decision.

The Rangers are 13-8 when the dominant righty takes the mound this year, and he enters the action with an even more impressive 10-3 record.

deGrom completely stymied the Mariners’ lineup when he last faced the team on May 4. He pitched 5.0 innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 victory.

Seattle counters with Logan Evans, who is really struggling ahead of this contest.

In five starts since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, he sports a 5.63 ERA and a 5.47 FIP.

Unsurprisingly, Seattle has lost three of his five outings during this stretch.

MLB SGP legs

deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts (+138): deGrom isn’t having the best strikeout campaign of his career, but there’s reason to be optimistic about this line.

The Rangers’ ace is averaging a strong 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings this year, but that number falls short of his career rate of 10.8 K/9.

Still, deGrom is reaching eight-plus strikeouts at an impressive clip ahead of this contest. He’s usurped this total in each of his last three starts.

The Mariners present a juicy matchup for deGrom on a pair of fronts. Firstly, they average the fourth-most strikeouts per game (8.89).

Secondly, deGrom owns an impressive 24.7% strikeout percentage versus Seattle’s current lineup, according to Baseball Savant.

Under 9.5 runs (-335): Lastly, I’m not expecting either team to score a boatload of runs.

The Rangers enter this game as favourites, and that usually means a lower-scoring affair. The under has cashed in 33 of Texas’s 58 outings as a favourite this year (57.9%), the eighth-highest rate in the majors.

The Rangers aren’t a prolific offensive bunch by any stretch of the imagination. They rank an underwhelming 23rd in runs per game this season (4.12).

The under on this total has cashed in two of the first three games of this series, and in both of deGrom’s appearances against the Mariners this year.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

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National Bank Open round of 16 picks and predictions Aug. 3: Bet on Fritz, Rublev to advance

The field at the National Bank Open is whittling itself down as the final four spots in the quarterfinal will be earned today.

The pregame narrative: Andrey Rublev is rebounding well from a poor performance in Washington and is a solid plus-money pick versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Taylor Fritz is worth backing as a significant favourite, while fellow American Frances Tiafoe is an underdog who has some bite.

Check out my top National Bank Open predictions for Aug. 3.

National Bank Open predictions

Best Bet: Rublev to win (+105)

There’s a little too much recency bias baked into this line.

Davidovich Fokina is playing better lately. He’s won six of his last seven matches thanks to a finals appearance in Washington, DC.

The Spaniard also won the only meeting between these two this year, scoring a straight-sets victory over Rublev at the Barcelona Open in April.

But a deeper look at these two suggests that Rublev actually holds the advantage.

Davidovich Fokina’s win against Rublev earlier this year is his only victory in their head-to-head history. Rublev owns a notable 5-1 head-to-head record, which includes a pair of wins on the hard courts.

Additionally, Rublev profiles as the more well-rounded player. While Davidovich Fokina is an elite returner, ranking sixth in return rating, his serve isn’t anything special. He ranks 60th in serve rating, according to ATPTour.com.

Rublev, meanwhile, is 20th in serve rating and 42nd in return rating.

Hard courts tend to suit a strong all-around game, and that’s why I prefer Rublev on this surface.

Key stat: Rublev beat Davidovich Fokina in straight sets when they played on the hard courts at the China Open in 2024.

Full tennis betting markets

Quick picks

Tiafoe +3.5 games (+100): Tiafoe has performed extremely well against this line since Wimbledon.

In his five hard-court matches since The Championships, Tiafoe has gone a sterling 5-0 as a 3.5-game underdog.

He isn’t having his best hard-court season at 9-6, but he is 4-1 straight up over his last five matches.

Tiafoe is playing Alex de Minaur, who’s coming off a tourney win in DC and has won seven consecutive matches. But Tiafoe profiles as his toughest test yet.

de Minaur hasn’t battled a top-15 competitor during his winning streak, and Tiafoe enters action as the No. 12 player in the world.

Tiafoe should keep it close and be spunky against de Minaur.

Fritz -1.5 sets (+100): Outside of a tight three-set loss to Davidovich Fokina in DC, Fritz has been rolling this hard-court season.

The top-ranked American won his other four matches in straight sets.

It’s been a continuation of strong play for Fritz after advancing to the Wimbledon semifinals before falling to Carlos Alcaraz.

His opponent, Jiri Lehecka, has been playing strong tennis. His lone loss since Wimbledon was a close three-set contest against the eventual winner at Washington, De Minaur.

But Fritz owns a distinct head-to-head advantage over Lehecka. The American has won all three meetings against the Czech, including a pair of straight-set wins on the hard courts.

A convincing Fritz win is worth betting at plus-money odds.

National Bank Open predictions made at 10:10 a.m. on 08/03/2025.