Steven Psihogios

The final Grand Slam of the year is upon and I have three U.S. Open predictions for the first round.

The latest: Victoria Mboko is Canada’s top rising tennis star, and she’s an excellent pick to beat Barbora Krejcikova. It’s been a tough year for Yulia Putintseva, but she stares down an intriguing matchup with Elisabetta Cocciaretto. Lastly, I’m betting on Caroline Garcia to beat Kamilla Rakhimova.

Check out my U.S. Open best bets for Aug. 25 below.

US Open best bets: Aug. 25

Best Bet: Mboko -1.5 sets (+110)

Few tennis players are entering the US Open with more to feel good about than Mboko.

The Canadian has vaulted up to No. 24 in the world thanks to her win at the National Bank Open. She beat some of the world’s best players en route to her title, including Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka.

She plays a competitor in Krejcikova who, not too long ago, was considered to be one of the very best in the game.

Krejcikova, a two-time Grand Slam winner and former WTA No. 2 player, is having a tough campaign. The Czech star is just 8-6 overall with a middling 3-2 record on the hard courts.

She did advance to the Round of 16 in Cincinnati, but lost to Jasmine Paolini.

Before that, however, Krejcikova lost to an injured Bianca Andreescu in the first round at the National Bank Open.

Krejcikova has been struggling for a couple of years on the hardcourt now, and with this being Mboko’s preferred surface, I expect the latter to win convincingly.

Key stat: Krejcikova is only 10-9 on the hardcourt since 2024. Mboko is a dominant 28-8.

Full US Open betting markets

Best Bet: Putintseva vs. Cocciaretto

Putintseva to win (+120): Nothing about Putintseva’s recent play is encouraging. Let’s clear that up right away.

She may be in the worst form of any competitor entering this tournament. The Kazakhstani star has lost six consecutive matches ahead of the U.S. Open.

So why am I picking her to win?

Her opponent, Cocciaretto, isn’t faring much better. Cocciaretto has lost three of her last four matches and has a shaky record on the hardcourt.

The Italian is a brutal 24-31 on the surface since 2023, earning a losing record in each season.

At least Putintseva can point to a mediocre 48-43 record in the same timeframe.

She also owns a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Cocciaretto, including a victory on the hardcourt in 2024.

US Open picks: Rakhimova vs. Garcia

Garcia to win (+120): Here’s another tight matchup between two struggling players.

Garcia is in the midst of her worst career year. She’s 4-7 on the hardcourt and has lost three of her last four matches.

Rakhimova isn’t doing much better. She’s 9-13 on this surface and has dropped two of her last three contests.

So why would I side with Garcia?

The plus-money odds help, for one.

Secondly, Garcia does have a track record of success at Flushing Meadows. She advanced to the semifinals at the U.S. Open not too long ago (2022).

Lastly, her head-to-head history against Rakhimova is a huge plus. Garcia is a perfect 2-0 against Rakhimova, including a victory against her at this tournament on her semifinal run three years ago.

U.S. Open best bets made at 10:57 a.m. on 08/24/2025.

The first round of the U.S. Open begins on Sunday with some of the game’s biggest stars in action.

The latest: Denis Shapovalov is having a strong hard-court swing following Wimbledon, making him a solid pick to win his first match. Francisco Cerundolo’s game is trending in the wrong direction, but he should be able to beat Matteo Arnaldi. Lastly, I expect Carlos Alcaraz to breeze past Reilly Opelka.

Check out my top US Open predictions for August 24-25, featuring a pick on Shapovalov vs. Marton Fucsovics.

US Open predictions: August 24-25

Best Bet: Shapovalov to win (-138)

This profiles as one of the more intriguing matches in the first round of the U.S. Open.

Both Shapovalov and Fucsovics have won hard-court titles since Wimbledon. The former won at Los Cabos, while the latter won at Winston-Salem.

Part of the reason why I’m dubious of Fucsovics’ chances, however, is because of his run in North Carolina last week.

The Hungarian enters this tournament with very little rest. He did earn a walkover win against Sebastian Korda in the final, but he has still played four matches in the last week.

At 33 years old, that’s a notable amount of action.

Compare that to Shapovalov, who hasn’t played a single match since August 10.

While Fucsovics is a solid all-around player, he lacks the elite traits Shapovalov possesses.

Shapovalov has the 12th-best return rating on the tour (149.6) and is 47th in under-pressure rating (203.0), according to ATPTour.com.

Fucsovics doesn’t rank inside the top-50 in either of those categories, or in serve rating.

Bet on the Canadian to advance.

Key stat: Shapovalov has won two of three meetings on hard courts against Fucsovics.

Go to full US Open betting markets

Best Bet: Opelka vs. Alcaraz

Alcaraz -2.5 sets (-138): This will be the first-ever meeting between Opelka and Alcaraz, and I don’t expect it to last very long.

Opelka’s serve can make him a dangerous competitor. He averages more aces per match than any other competitor on tour (16.3).

His 6-foot-11 frame gives him one of the most potent serves on tour, but his return game has always been a bit of a mixed bag.

Earning breaks against Opelka is a challenge for most, but if anybody can, I’m banking on Alcaraz doing just that.

The Spaniard has the seventh-highest break points converted percentage (43.5%) and is second in return rating.

Alcaraz is also in elite form, winning four of his six matches at the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set.

US Open predictions: Arnaldi vs. Cerundolo

Cerundolo to win (-143): Cerundolo isn’t in peak form, but there’s still value backing him at this price.

The Argentine has lost seven of his last 11 matches, but he has been dealing with an abdominal strain that forced him to retire from his most recent appearance.

Cerundolo has been resting for three-plus weeks, and that’ll hopefully have him fresh to begin the U.S. Open.

His opponent, Arnaldi, is having one of the worst years of his career. The Italian is 18-19 overall, sporting an ugly 9-10 record on outdoor hard courts.

Cerundolo, meanwhile, is a strong 10-5 on the surface.

I expect a fresh Cerundolo to make quick work of Arnaldi.

U.S. Open predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 08/23/2025.

Gabriel Diallo faces a tough challenge in the round of 32 at the Cincinnati Open.

The pre-match narrative: Diallo won a hard-fought match against Sebastian Baez in the second round. He’s about to face a much tougher challenge in the form of Jannik Sinner. The Canadian is playing some solid tennis, but naturally, he enters as a major underdog.

Check out our Sinner vs. Diallo odds and my best bet for the Aug. 11 tennis match.

Sinner vs. Diallo odds

Full Cincinnati Open betting markets

Best men’s tennis pick

Best Bet: Under 18.5 games (+110)

I don’t see many scenarios where Diallo keeps this match close.

That’s no disrespect to the rising Canadian star. Diallo owns a respectable 14-11 record on the hard courts this year and has won at least one match at eight consecutive tournaments.

But there are levels to the ATP Tour, and Sinner is one of two players on the game’s most elite tier.

The reigning Australian Open, Wimbledon, and US Open champion is coming into his own as arguably the sport’s very best. He enters this match a perfect 8-0 on the hard courts this year, and that includes a 6-1, 6-1 victory over Daniel Elahi Galan in his first match in Cincinnati.

While Diallo might fare better than Elahi Galan, don’t count on him going the distance with Sinner.

Diallo hasn’t proven that he can hang with that level of competition just yet.

Here’s how he’s performed in his two matches against top-10 competitors during this hard-court swing:

• Lost 6-4, 6-2 to Taylor Fritz (18 games).

• Lost 6-3, 6-2 to Ben Shelton (17 games).

It’s clear that there’s still a gap between Diallo and some of the game’s very best.

It’s important to mention, too, that there remains a significant gap between the fantastic Sinner and top talents like Fritz and Shelton.

Diallo is improving with every match, but there’s very little forgiveness in a matchup against Sinner.

Key stat: Sinner is 61-5 on hard courts since 2024.

Sinner vs. Diallo best bet made at 2:47 p.m. on 08/10/2025.