Steven Psihogios

The action at the US Open is heating up as the men’s and women’s draws whittle down.

The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing some great tennis, but a difficult matchup against Andrey Rublev awaits. Jannik Sinner is a buzzsaw, but I’m betting on Alexander Bublik to stay competitive.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the round of 16, featuring a pick on Naomi Osaka vs. Coco Gauff.

US Open picks: Round of 16

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Best Bet: Rublev -1.5 sets (+130)

On paper, this is a very even matchup.

Auger-Aliassime has been cruising at the US Open. He’s only dropped one set at the tournament and has now won six of his last seven matches.

Rublev has dropped three sets at Flushing Meadows but has also won six of his last seven outings.

So why would I back Rublev to win by this margin?

It’s hard to ignore the head-to-head history between these two.

Rublev has absolutely had his number. He’s beaten the Canadian in seven of their eight duels, including each of their last five showdowns.

Five of their matches have been on the hardcourts, with Rublev taking four of them.

Despite his recent run of success at the US Open, Auger-Aliassime hasn’t been lighting it up on the hardcourts either. He’s 25-18 on the surface since 2024, while Rublev is a much more impressive 42-20.

Bet on Rublev to advance with relative ease against Auger-Aliassime.

Key stat: Rublev’s serve has been excellent, totalling 36 aces across his last two matches.

US Open best bets

Bublik +2.5 sets (+100): Sinner is a massive favourite in this match (-1,430) and rightfully so.

He’s automatic at majors, advancing to the final at each of the last four tournaments.

And while I expect him to win this match, don’t discount how well Bublik is playing.

The Kazakhstani star has won 11 consecutive contests, winning nine of those contests via straight sets. He’s also held his own historically against Sinner, winning two of their last three head-to-head battles.

That includes the most recent meeting between the two, a three-set victory at the Terra Wortmann Open.

Getting Bublik at even money to win a set is a fair price.

Gauff -1.5 sets (+150): Few players have done a better job raising their stock in 2025 than Osaka.

The Japanese star is 30-12 overall and 19-6 on the hardcourts. She’s coming off a finals appearance at the National Bank Open and has won nine of her last 10 matches.

But there’s one thing that’s evaded Osaka. Success at the majors.

Osaka hasn’t done very well at Grand Slam events this year, failing to advance past the third round at each tournament.

She also hasn’t fared well against Gauff.

Osaka has lost three of her last four matches against Gauff in straight sets, with all coming on the hardcourts.

Bet on Gauff, who has only lost one set at Flushing Meadows, to emerge victorious again.

US Open picks made at 4:01 p.m. on 08/31/2025.

The fourth round of the US Open begins on Sunday with some of the sport’s biggest stars in action.

The latest: Carlos Alcaraz seems to have avoided a serious knee injury, and I expect him to roll against Arthur Rinderknech. Novak Djokovic has cruised past the competition, and he should beat Jan-Lennard Struff. Lastly, Taylor Townsend is a solid upset pick against Barbora Krejcikova.

Check out my top US Open picks for Aug. 31.

US Open parlay picks: Aug. 31

Parlay: Alcaraz -2.5 sets | Djokovic -1.5 sets | Townsend to win (+315)

Alcaraz -2.5 (-225): Alcaraz has largely cruised at the US Open, but it hasn’t all been smooth sailing.

The Spanish superstar needed some medical attention for his knee in his most recent win over Italy’s Luciano Darderi.

But the ailment did little to stop Alcaraz as he proceeded to win the second set and the match.

Assuming his injury hasn’t worsened since his last match, I expect Alcaraz to roll over Rinderknech.

These two competitors have squared off three times, with Alcaraz winning all three contests. One of those matches was at the 2021 US Open.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a significant time on court advantage over Rinderknech at the US Open. The Spaniard has spent five hours and 25 minutes on the court, while Rinderknech has played nine hours and 47 minutes.

Bet on the younger, less-spent Alcaraz to win the match.

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Tennis parlay picks

Djokovic -1.5 sets (-286): There’s a lengthy head-to-head history between Djokovic and Struff, and it greatly favours the former.

Djokovic has won all seven contests, losing only one set in their meetings.

The Serbian is poised for his fourth run to a semifinal at a major this season. He has covered this spread in all three of his matches, and he enters this match after one of his best serving performances at a major.

Djokovic delivered 18 aces to just six double faults in his victory over Cameron Norrie.

Townsend to win (+112): Townsend’s run at the US Open has received plenty of attention, but not for all of the right reasons.

The U.S. tennis star was involved in a highly publicized spat with Jelena Ostapenko after defeating the Latvian. Her recent play, however, is what tennis fans should be talking about.

Townsend has won all six of her sets at the tournament, benefitting from having the crowd on her side.

Her latest win is her most impressive. Townsend downed world No. 5 Mirra Andreeva in straight sets to advance to the fourth round.

Her opponent, Krejcikova, is having some service issues. The Czech veteran beat Emma Navarro in three sets, but committed nine double faults in the process.

I’ll gladly take a streaking Townsend as an underdog.

US Open picks made at 11:15 a.m. on 08/31/2025.

The first round of the U.S. Open begins on Sunday with some of the game’s biggest stars in action.

The latest: Denis Shapovalov is having a strong hard-court swing following Wimbledon, making him a solid pick to win his first match. Francisco Cerundolo’s game is trending in the wrong direction, but he should be able to beat Matteo Arnaldi. Lastly, I expect Carlos Alcaraz to breeze past Reilly Opelka.

Check out my top US Open predictions for August 24-25, featuring a pick on Shapovalov vs. Marton Fucsovics.

US Open predictions: August 24-25

Best Bet: Shapovalov to win (-143)

This profiles as one of the more intriguing matches in the first round of the U.S. Open.

Both Shapovalov and Fucsovics have won hard-court titles since Wimbledon. The former won at Los Cabos, while the latter won at Winston-Salem.

Part of the reason why I’m dubious of Fucsovics’ chances, however, is because of his run in North Carolina last week.

The Hungarian enters this tournament with very little rest. He did earn a walkover win against Sebastian Korda in the final, but he has still played four matches in the last week.

At 33 years old, that’s a notable amount of action.

Compare that to Shapovalov, who hasn’t played a single match since August 10.

While Fucsovics is a solid all-around player, he lacks the elite traits Shapovalov possesses.

Shapovalov has the 12th-best return rating on the tour (149.6) and is 47th in under-pressure rating (203.0), according to ATPTour.com.

Fucsovics doesn’t rank inside the top-50 in either of those categories, or in serve rating.

Bet on the Canadian to advance.

Key stat: Shapovalov has won two of three meetings on hard courts against Fucsovics.

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Best Bet: Opelka vs. Alcaraz

Alcaraz -2.5 sets (-125): This will be the first-ever meeting between Opelka and Alcaraz, and I don’t expect it to last very long.

Opelka’s serve can make him a dangerous competitor. He averages more aces per match than any other competitor on tour (16.3).

His 6-foot-11 frame gives him one of the most potent serves on tour, but his return game has always been a bit of a mixed bag.

Earning breaks against Opelka is a challenge for most, but if anybody can, I’m banking on Alcaraz doing just that.

The Spaniard has the seventh-highest break points converted percentage (43.5%) and is second in return rating.

Alcaraz is also in elite form, winning four of his six matches at the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set.

US Open predictions: Arnaldi vs. Cerundolo

Cerundolo to win (-141): Cerundolo isn’t in peak form, but there’s still value backing him at this price.

The Argentine has lost seven of his last 11 matches, but he has been dealing with an abdominal strain that forced him to retire from his most recent appearance.

Cerundolo has been resting for three-plus weeks, and that’ll hopefully have him fresh to begin the U.S. Open.

His opponent, Arnaldi, is having one of the worst years of his career. The Italian is 18-19 overall, sporting an ugly 9-10 record on outdoor hard courts.

Cerundolo, meanwhile, is a strong 10-5 on the surface.

I expect a fresh Cerundolo to make quick work of Arnaldi.

U.S. Open predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 08/23/2025.