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Ravens vs. Bills SNF Week 1 TD picks: Bet on Keon Coleman to score at +270

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills meet for a game that has offence written all over it.

The pregame narrative: No game has a higher points total than this one (50.5). Bettors should expect plenty of scoring, making this a great contest for targeting touchdown plays.

Check out my top Ravens vs. Bills Week 1 TD picks, featuring Mark Andrews and Keon Coleman.

Ravens vs. Bills TD picks: Week 1

Best Bet: Andrews anytime TD (+188)

This wager isn’t necessarily backed by irrefutable statistical evidence, but it’s Week 1. We don’t have any relevant info to go with just yet.

Andrews had the worst game of his career the last time he was in Buffalo. The veteran tight end had an untimely fumble and dropped a crucial two-point conversion in the dying minutes of Baltimore’s divisional round loss, which ultimately cost his team the game.

Andrews has long been Jackson’s go-to option, though, and I’m sure he’ll want to pick his teammate up.

Andrews’ per-game production took a hit last season as he averaged his lowest yards per game since his rookie year (39.6).

But it wasn’t all bad for Andrews.

He set a new single-season high for touchdowns (11) and saw 25% of his team’s red-zone targets, according to Rotowire.

With Isaiah Likely out, look for Jackson to force it to Andrews.

Key stat: Andrews has scored a TD in each of his last six regular-season games.

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Sunday Night Football TD picks

Coleman anytime TD (+270): It’s not difficult to see where Coleman separates himself from the rest of Buffalo’s receiver room.

The 6-foot-4 wide receiver towers over the rest and is built to thrive in the red zone.

Even in a rookie season where he failed to meet expectations, Coleman was a factor in close. The 2024 second-round pick led all Bills wide receivers with 11 red-zone targets.

Coleman dealt with injuries in his first campaign but appears to be ready to rock. He and Josh Allen should be in sync in year two.

Charlie Kolar anytime TD (+750): This one is a bit of a long shot, but hear me out.

Isaiah Likely is out, and that’s a big deal for the Ravens.

Baltimore utilized 12 personnel on 31% of its plays last season, according to SumerSports. That was the fifth-most in the NFL.

While the Ravens will likely lean on it less in this contest with Likely out, they won’t completely shy away from it.

At 6-foot-7, Kolar is a hulking presence at tight end. He’s also a talented athlete.

Kolar ran a 79th percentile 40-yard dash (4.67 seconds) and totalled over 2,000 receiving yards across four years at Iowa State.

He’ll see a significant uptick in opportunity, and is worth backing at this price.

Ravens vs. Bills TD picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET on 09/07/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees SGP predictions Sept. 7: Bet on Bichette and Scherzer in +360 ticket

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees play out a crucial rubber match on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and New York split the first two games of their series. Now, the former will either leave four games up on the Bronx Bombers or just two. It’s a game oozing with pennant implications.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for Sept. 7, featuring Bo Bichette and Max Scherzer.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Bichette 1+ hits | Scherzer over 5.5 Ks | Blue Jays ML (+360)

Bichette 1+ hits (-385): This leg has the shortest odds, but it’s one that I’m very confident about.

Bichette, who leads MLB with 181 hits, has been a machine at the plate this season.

The shortstop is delivering at an impressive rate. Bichette has a knock in 18 of his last 20 games (33 total).

He’s been especially hot recently, producing nine hits in his last five contests.

Bichette hasn’t fared well against Yankees starter Max Fried (2-for-11), but I’m confident that Toronto’s top hitter will come through on Sunday.

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MLB SGP legs

Scherzer over 5.5 Ks (+102): Scherzer is coming off his worst start since joining the Blue Jays.

And I think that makes me like this wager more.

“Mad Max” is one of MLB’s top competitors, and this game carries significant weight with the playoffs approaching.

I’m confident he’s going to deal against the Yankees.

Scherzer only lasted four innings in his last appearance, but had gone six-plus in each of his six previous outings.

He hasn’t topped this total in six consecutive starts, but there’s reason to believe he’ll rack them up today.

The Yankees are as swing-happy as they come, averaging the fourth-most strikeouts per game (8.83). Scherzer had seven strikeouts against this squad on June 30.

Blue Jays ML (+143): Lastly, I’m picking Toronto to win.

This is a play against New York starter Fried, who hasn’t performed well against the Blue Jays.

Fried has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts against Toronto, losing both of those starts.

Toronto has been sharp recently with Scherzer on the mound. It’s won in each of his last four appearances.

Ultimately, the Yankees live and die by Aaron Judge, and the team’s top slugger is slumping. Judge is homerless in his last five games and doesn’t have an extra-base hit during that stretch.

I’m betting on Scherzer showing out and keeping the Blue Jays firmly on top of the AL East.

Picks as of 10:36 a.m. on 09/07/2025.

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Vikings vs. Bears Week 1 Monday Night Football picks: Back underdog Chicago, bet on Thielen

The first week of the NFL season closes with a compelling battle between NFC North foes.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears enter the 2025 campaign with major changes. Minnesota hopes it has a franchise quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Chicago, meanwhile, has faith that Ben Johnson is the right head coach for the 2024 first overall pick, Caleb Williams.

Check out my Vikings vs. Bears picks for the season opener on Sept. 8, featuring prop bets on Adam Thielen and Jordan Mason.

Vikings vs. Bears picks

Best Bet: Bears moneyline (+100)

Has there been a more overhyped team this offseason than Minnesota?

Yes, the Vikings are coming off an impressive 14-3 season. No, this isn’t the same team.

The team shipped quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason in favour of first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy won a national title with Michigan two years ago, and people seem to think he’ll be a franchise guy from the jump.

I’m not so sure about that.

McCarthy hasn’t played an actual football game since January 8, 2024. That’s 610 days.

This isn’t a great spot to be dropped into for your first NFL start.

McCarthy will be on the road in primetime against a Bears defence that allowed the 14th-fewest points per game (21.8) last season.

He also won’t have a full complement of receivers at his disposal.

Jordan Addison is suspended, and offseason addition Rondale Moore is out for the season.

I’ll bet on Caleb Williams taking a step forward in year two and fade Minnesota in a raucous road environment.

Key stat: Four of Chicago’s five wins from last season came at home.

Monday Night Football prop picks

Thielen over 31.5 receiving yards (-120): Thielen just showed up, but he’ll be thrust into a major role immediately.

Minnesota’s receiver core is hurting. Justin Jefferson missed extensive time during training camp with a hamstring injury. He’ll play, but it remains to be seen if the ailment will linger.

With Addison suspended and Moore out, Thielen will function as the No. 2 wide receiver.

The veteran continues to produce into the late stages of his career. Thielen averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game across his last two campaigns, topping this prop in 21 of 27 outings during this stretch.

Mason under 40.5 rushing yards (-118): This line seems a tad high for Mason.

The ex-San Francisco 49ers tailback was acquired via trade this offseason. He was in the midst of a breakout campaign with the Niners in 2024 before suffering a high-ankle sprain.

He’ll be splitting a backfield with Aaron Jones in Minnesota, and I’m skeptical about his usage early on.

The Vikings need pass catchers, and Jones is clearly the better receiving back.

When healthy, Jones has always been an effective RB. I expect him to be leaned on heavily in this contest, which should limit Mason’s snap count.

Vikings vs. Bears picks made at 3:31 p.m. ET 09/06/2025.

Vikings vs. Bears Week 1 Monday Night Football picks: Back underdog Chicago, bet on Thielen

The first week of the NFL season closes with a compelling battle between NFC North foes.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears enter the 2025 campaign with major changes. Minnesota hopes it has a franchise quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Chicago, meanwhile, has faith that Ben Johnson is the right head coach for the 2024 first overall pick, Caleb Williams.

Check out my Vikings vs. Bears picks for the season opener on Sept. 8, featuring prop bets on Adam Thielen and Jordan Mason.

Vikings vs. Bears picks

Best Bet: Bears moneyline (+100)

Has there been a more overhyped team this offseason than Minnesota?

Yes, the Vikings are coming off an impressive 14-3 season. No, this isn’t the same team.

The team shipped quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason in favour of first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy won a national title with Michigan two years ago, and people seem to think he’ll be a franchise guy from the jump.

I’m not so sure about that.

McCarthy hasn’t played an actual football game since January 8, 2024. That’s 610 days.

This isn’t a great spot to be dropped into for your first NFL start.

McCarthy will be on the road in primetime against a Bears defence that allowed the 14th-fewest points per game (21.8) last season.

He also won’t have a full complement of receivers at his disposal.

Jordan Addison is suspended, and offseason addition Rondale Moore is out for the season.

I’ll bet on Caleb Williams taking a step forward in year two and fade Minnesota in a raucous road environment.

Key stat: Four of Chicago’s five wins from last season came at home.

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Monday Night Football prop picks

Thielen over 33.5 receiving yards (-117): Thielen just showed up, but he’ll be thrust into a major role immediately.

Minnesota’s receiver core is hurting. Justin Jefferson missed extensive time during training camp with a hamstring injury. He’ll play, but it remains to be seen if the ailment will linger.

With Addison suspended and Moore out, Thielen will function as the No. 2 wide receiver.

The veteran continues to produce into the late stages of his career. Thielen averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game across his last two campaigns, topping this prop in 21 of 27 outings during this stretch.

Mason under 42.5 rushing yards (-117): This line seems a tad high for Mason.

The ex-San Francisco 49ers tailback was acquired via trade this offseason. He was in the midst of a breakout campaign with the Niners in 2024 before suffering a high-ankle sprain.

He’ll be splitting a backfield with Aaron Jones in Minnesota, and I’m skeptical about his usage early on.

The Vikings need pass catchers, and Jones is clearly the better receiving back.

When healthy, Jones has always been an effective RB. I expect him to be leaned on heavily in this contest, which should limit Mason’s snap count.

Vikings vs. Bears picks made at 3:31 p.m. ET 09/06/2025.

Ravens vs. Bills SNF Week 1 SGP predictions: Bet on Josh Palmer, Mark Andrews in +475 ticket

Sunday Night Football starts with a bang as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills.

The pregame narrative: Baltimore’s season ended with a loss to Buffalo. The Ravens now aim for revenge against the Bills, led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The 50.5-point total for this game is the biggest on the board, which means we should get some fireworks.

Check out my Ravens vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 1 below, featuring Josh Palmer and Mark Andrews.

Ravens vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Over 46.5 points | Palmer over 29.5 receiving yards | Andrews anytime TD (+475)

Over 46.5 points (-182): This game is likely going to see its fair share of points.

Teasing it down four points and through key numbers like 47 and 48 gives me a little more confidence in this wager.

The two teams cleared this total in their playoff meeting a season ago, a 27-25 victory for the Bills.

Buffalo’s defence is the main reason why I’m eyeing this over. The unit is dealing with several key absences in this contest.

Tre’Davious White is doubtful, and fellow corner Maxwell Hairston is out. Defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi are suspended and will be out for six weeks.

That should help open up Baltimore’s offence.

Allen and the Bills should be able to keep up in the contest and help push this over the number.

Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Palmer over 29.5 receiving yards (-118): This line seems a little low for a few reasons.

Firstly, Buffalo made a fairly significant commitment to Palmer this offseason. It signed the ex-Los Angeles Chargers receiver to a three-year, $29-million contract. That tells me the squad has plans for Palmer.

Secondly, three different Bills receivers were on the injury report this week. Although Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, and Khalil Shakir are all likely to play, it doesn’t mean they’ll all be at full strength.

Lastly, this line is well below what Palmer has historically produced. The Canadian wide receiver has averaged 47.2 receiving yards per game across his last three seasons.

Andrews anytime TD (+125): This is a narrative play, but I’ll gladly add it to this ticket.

The last time Andrews was in Buffalo, he had the worst game of his career. The veteran tight end had a costly fumble and dropped a crucial two-point conversion in the dying minutes of Baltimore’s divisional round loss.

Andrews has long been Jackson’s top red-zone target, though, and I imagine he’ll want to pick his teammate up.

Andrews’ per-game production took a hit last season as he averaged his lowest yards per game since his rookie year (39.6).

But it wasn’t all bad for Andrews.

He set a new single-season high for touchdowns (11) and saw 25% of his team’s red-zone targets, according to Rotowire.

With Isaiah Likely out, look for Jackson to force it to Andrews.

Ravens vs. Bills predictions made at 1:55 p.m. on 09/06/2025.

Ravens vs. Bills SNF Week 1 SGP predictions: Bet on Josh Palmer, Mark Andrews in +650 ticket

Sunday Night Football starts with a bang as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills.

The pregame narrative: Baltimore’s season ended with a loss to Buffalo. The Ravens now aim for revenge against the Bills, led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The 50.5-point total for this game is the biggest on the board, which means we should get some fireworks.

Check out my Ravens vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 1 below, featuring Josh Palmer and Mark Andrews.

Ravens vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Over 46.5 points | Palmer over 28.5 receiving yards | Andrews anytime TD (+650)

Over 46.5 points (-182): This game is likely going to see its fair share of points.

Teasing it down four points and through key numbers like 47 and 48 gives me a little more confidence in this wager.

The two teams cleared this total in their playoff meeting a season ago, a 27-25 victory for the Bills.

Buffalo’s defence is the main reason why I’m eyeing this over. The unit is dealing with several key absences in this contest.

Tre’Davious White is doubtful, and fellow corner Maxwell Hairston is out. Defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi are suspended and will be out for six weeks.

That should help open up Baltimore’s offence.

Allen and the Bills should be able to keep up in the contest and help push this over the number.

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Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Palmer over 28.5 receiving yards (-112): This line seems a little low for a few reasons.

Firstly, Buffalo made a fairly significant commitment to Palmer this offseason. It signed the ex-Los Angeles Chargers receiver to a three-year, $29-million contract. That tells me the squad has plans for Palmer.

Secondly, three different Bills receivers were on the injury report this week. Although Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, and Khalil Shakir are all likely to play, it doesn’t mean they’ll all be at full strength.

Lastly, this line is well below what Palmer has historically produced. The Canadian wide receiver has averaged 47.2 receiving yards per game across his last three seasons.

Andrews anytime TD (+195): This is a narrative play, but I’ll gladly add it to this ticket.

The last time Andrews was in Buffalo, he had the worst game of his career. The veteran tight end had a costly fumble and dropped a crucial two-point conversion in the dying minutes of Baltimore’s divisional round loss.

Andrews has long been Jackson’s top red-zone target, though, and I imagine he’ll want to pick his teammate up.

Andrews’ per-game production took a hit last season as he averaged his lowest yards per game since his rookie year (39.6).

But it wasn’t all bad for Andrews.

He set a new single-season high for touchdowns (11) and saw 25% of his team’s red-zone targets, according to Rotowire.

With Isaiah Likely out, look for Jackson to force it to Andrews.

Ravens vs. Bills predictions made at 1:55 p.m. on 09/06/2025.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz US Open predictions: Bet underdog Alcaraz to win men’s final

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will write another chapter in their blooming rivalry at the U.S. Open final.

The latest: Sinner has already won two Grand Slams this year, and he’s eyeing a third. But a familiar foe stands in his way. Alcaraz has been a buzzsaw at Flushing Meadows, determined to win his second major of 2025. Tennis fans are in for a treat with two unstoppable forces colliding.

Check out my Sinner vs. Alcaraz U.S. Open predictions for the men’s final on September 7th.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz U.S. Open predictions

Best Best: Alcaraz to win (+105)

Alcaraz and Sinner both have different levels they’re capable of reaching at any given tournament.

At the U.S. Open, it appears the former is the one who is taking his game to new heights.

The Spaniard has been sensational. He hasn’t dropped a set at Flushing Meadows and is entering off his finest performance yet.

Full US Open betting markets

Alcaraz downed the legendary Novak Djokovic in straight sets.

The win looks even more impressive when you dig a little deeper. Alcaraz faced just one break point in the match and fired off seven aces while committing only two double faults.

He also ripped off 31 winners in the contest.

Sinner, meanwhile, needed four sets to down Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. He largely played well in the match, but he didn’t escape it without concern.

Sinner took an extended medical timeout and left the court.

Anything less than a fully healthy Sinner won’t suffice against Alcaraz.

It’s especially true when you look at the head-to-head history between these two. Alcaraz owns a dominant 10-5 record over the Italian.

Sinner is the reigning U.S. Open champ, but he didn’t have to battle Alcaraz in 2024. Alcaraz won the only meeting at Flushing Meadows between these two, and I expect him to do it again.

Key stat: Alcaraz has won six of the last seven matches between these two.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz US Open predictions made at 12:12 p.m. on 09/06/2025.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz US Open predictions: Bet underdog Alcaraz to win men’s final

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will write another chapter in their blooming rivalry at the U.S. Open final.

The latest: Sinner has already won two Grand Slams this year, and he’s eyeing a third. But a familiar foe stands in his way. Alcaraz has been a buzzsaw at Flushing Meadows, determined to win his second major of 2025. Tennis fans are in for a treat with two unstoppable forces colliding.

Check out my Sinner vs. Alcaraz U.S. Open predictions for the men’s final on September 7th.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz U.S. Open predictions

Best Best: Alcaraz to win (+114)

Alcaraz and Sinner both have different levels they’re capable of reaching at any given tournament.

At the U.S. Open, it appears the former is the one who is taking his game to new heights.

The Spaniard has been sensational. He hasn’t dropped a set at Flushing Meadows and is entering off his finest performance yet.

Full US Open betting markets

Alcaraz downed the legendary Novak Djokovic in straight sets.

The win looks even more impressive when you dig a little deeper. Alcaraz faced just one break point in the match and fired off seven aces while committing only two double faults.

He also ripped off 31 winners in the contest.

Sinner, meanwhile, needed four sets to down Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. He largely played well in the match, but he didn’t escape it without concern.

Sinner took an extended medical timeout and left the court.

Anything less than a fully healthy Sinner won’t suffice against Alcaraz.

It’s especially true when you look at the head-to-head history between these two. Alcaraz owns a dominant 10-5 record over the Italian.

Sinner is the reigning U.S. Open champ, but he didn’t have to battle Alcaraz in 2024. Alcaraz won the only meeting at Flushing Meadows between these two, and I expect him to do it again.

Key stat: Alcaraz has won six of the last seven matches between these two.

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Sinner vs. Alcaraz US Open predictions made at 12:12 p.m. on 09/06/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 6: Bet on Padres’ Machado and Tatis to go yard

Coors Field has my attention when looking for MLB home run picks on Saturday.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Colorado is never a bad place for the long ball. The San Diego Padres visit the Colorado Rockies tonight, putting Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in a prime position to mash.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 6, featuring Corbin Carroll.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Machado to hit a home run (+255)

It’s impossible to ignore how Coors Field can really boost a home run pick.

Everything is just a little bit different in Denver. The area’s thin, dry air makes it a hitter’s paradise. Here’s how it ranks among several key categories per MLB Park Factors:

1st in overall Park Factor (112).
1st in wOBACon (112).

1st in BACON (113)

T-8th in HR (105)

And while the environmental conditions should help San Diego’s offence, so should the pitcher it’ll see.

Rookie McCade Brown will make his third-ever appearance. His numbers thus far aren’t pretty.

Brown enters tonight’s contest with an 8.22 ERA and 6.66 FIP across 7.2 innings pitched. He’s allowed one home run and a pair of doubles in his young MLB career.

Machado hasn’t been hitting the ball well lately, but he does have one homer in his last two games. I’m betting on that being a sign of more to come.

Key stat: Machado has 10 home runs in 56 games at the ballpark in his career, the most he has at any venue he’s played 60 games or less.

Best HR predictions

Tatis to hit a home run (+260): Tatis benefits from all the same Coors Field perks as Machado, but he also experiences a significant platoon boon against right-handed pitching.

The Padres battled lefty Kyle Freeland on Friday to little success. The team scored one run, and Tatis went a disappointing 1-for-3.

But those who know Tatis’ splits know that he struggles mightily against lefties:

Tatis has a .281/.376/.470 slash line vs. righties.

He has a much worse .209/.343/.317 slash line vs. lefties this season.

Tatis has 16 homers vs. righties and three home runs vs. lefties.

Luckily, Brown is a righty.

Tatis has one home run in four games at Coors Field in 2025.

Carroll to hit a home run (+375): Carroll is heating up, and I want in.

The Arizona Diamondbacks star is seeing the ball very well ahead of tonight’s matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. He has three home runs and five extra-base hits in his last six games.

One of those came in yesterday’s series opener against Boston, and I expect more of the same today.

Lucas Giolito gets the start for the Red Sox, and his 3.38 ERA provides a misleading look at his season results.

Giolito’s advanced numbers are downright brutal:

4.98 xERA (15th percentile)
.272 xBA (19th percentile)

The game is at Chase Field, which is fourth in MLB Park Factors (103). Expect a strong showing from the do-it-all outfielder.

MLB home run picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 6: Bet on Padres’ Machado and Tatis to go yard

Coors Field has my attention when looking for MLB home run picks on Saturday.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Colorado is never a bad place for the long ball. The San Diego Padres visit the Colorado Rockies tonight, putting Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in a prime position to mash.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 6, featuring Corbin Carroll.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Machado to hit a home run (+350)

It’s impossible to ignore how Coors Field can really boost a home run pick.

Everything is just a little bit different in Denver. The area’s thin, dry air makes it a hitter’s paradise. Here’s how it ranks among several key categories per MLB Park Factors:

1st in overall Park Factor (112).
1st in wOBACon (112).

1st in BACON (113)

T-8th in HR (105)

And while the environmental conditions should help San Diego’s offence, so should the pitcher it’ll see.

Rookie McCade Brown will make his third-ever appearance. His numbers thus far aren’t pretty.

Brown enters tonight’s contest with an 8.22 ERA and 6.66 FIP across 7.2 innings pitched. He’s allowed one home run and a pair of doubles in his young MLB career.

Machado hasn’t been hitting the ball well lately, but he does have one homer in his last two games. I’m betting on that being a sign of more to come.

Key stat: Machado has 10 home runs in 56 games at the ballpark in his career, the most he has at any venue he’s played 60 games or less.

Embed: #117601

Best HR predictions

Tatis to hit a home run (+340): Tatis benefits from all the same Coors Field perks as Machado, but he also experiences a significant platoon boon against right-handed pitching.

The Padres battled lefty Kyle Freeland on Friday to little success. The team scored one run, and Tatis went a disappointing 1-for-3.

But those who know Tatis’ splits know that he struggles mightily against lefties:

Tatis has a .281/.376/.470 slash line vs. righties.

He has a much worse .209/.343/.317 slash line vs. lefties this season.

Tatis has 16 homers vs. righties and three home runs vs. lefties.

Luckily, Brown is a righty.

Tatis has one home run in four games at Coors Field in 2025.

Carroll to hit a home run (+390): Carroll is heating up, and I want in.

The Arizona Diamondbacks star is seeing the ball very well ahead of tonight’s matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. He has three home runs and five extra-base hits in his last six games.

One of those came in yesterday’s series opener against Boston, and I expect more of the same today.

Lucas Giolito gets the start for the Red Sox, and his 3.38 ERA provides a misleading look at his season results.

Giolito’s advanced numbers are downright brutal:

4.98 xERA (15th percentile)
.272 xBA (19th percentile)

The game is at Chase Field, which is fourth in MLB Park Factors (103). Expect a strong showing from the do-it-all outfielder.

MLB home run picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.