Staff Writer

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Week 5 Monday Night Football picks: Bet on Trevor Lawrence, fade Kareem Hunt

The Kansas City Chiefs aim for a third consecutive win as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars in prime time.

The pregame narrative: Kansas City has erased its 0-2 start with back-to-back wins. It hits the road in Week 5 to battle a 3-1 Jags squad tied for first in the AFC South. Jacksonville will try to snap an eight-game losing streak to the Chiefs in this contest.

Check out my Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 6, featuring prop predictions on Trevor Lawrence and Kareem Hunt.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks

Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (-117)

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Many are appointing the Chiefs as being back after the 37-20 beatdown they put on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4.

Not so fast, my friend.

Kansas City beat a Baltimore squad dealing with a litany of defensive injuries, hence why it was able to put up a season-high 37 points.

But don’t be fooled: this offence still isn’t ready for take off.

The Chiefs were averaging 20.0 points per game through the first three weeks, and that’s where they’ll likely come in against a strong Jaguars defence.

Jacksonville is ceding the fifth-fewest points per game (18.0) thanks to its ability to generate turnovers.

The Jags lead the league in interceptions (nine). They’re forcing these by producing a solid amount of pressure, ranking 10th in hurry percentage (7.0%).

I expect Jacksonville to put pressure on a Chiefs passing attack that’s been more average than elite this season. Patrick Mahomes should struggle to break this game open, and that should allow the Jags to cover.

Key stat: The Jaguars have covered this spread in three of four games this season.

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Monday Night Football prop pick

Lawrence over 11.5 rushing yards (-115): Lawrence isn’t rushing much this season, but there’s reason to believe he will be on Monday.

Kansas City likes to bring the blitz.

The Chiefs have the seventh-highest blitz rate in the NFL (32.6%), and that forces quarterbacks to use their feet to evade pressure.

Naturally, Kansas City is ceding plenty of rushing yards to opposing passers. The Chiefs are surrendering the fifth-most rushing yards per game to QBs (31.3).

This number isn’t inflated by Lamar Jackson’s 48 rushing yards last week, either. Kansas City has allowed every QB it’s faced to rush for 12-plus yards.

Hunt under 30.5 rushing yards (-117): The Chiefs can’t get anything going on the ground, and their backfield is turning into an ugly, three-back committee.

Hunt is playing around 40% of his team’s offensive snaps and has actually beaten this total in three of four games, but he enters a difficult matchup on Monday night.

Jacksonville allows the ninth-fewest yards per carry (3.9) in the NFL and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8).

Rookie Brashard Smith played a season-high 26% of the snaps in Week 4. With Hunt and Isiah Pacheco struggling, his role could continue to expand and limit Hunt’s production.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks made at 4:01 p.m. ET 10/04/2025.

Patriots vs. Bills SNF Week 5 SGP predictions: Back Allen and Buffalo in +500 ticket

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet in prime time on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame night: It may be early, but this game will go a long way in deciding the AFC East. A Buffalo win puts the team three games clear of any divisional foe; a loss brings New England within one game of the Bills. The stakes are high in Western New York.

Check out my +500 Patriots vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Josh Allen and Hunter Henry.

Patriots vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Bills -8 | Allen over 228.5 passing yards | Henry over 41.5 receiving yards (+500)

Bills -8 (-106): Buffalo hasn’t been covering spreads, but it has been winning by double digits.

Despite being a middling 2-2 against the spread, the Bills have won three of their four games by 10-plus points.

That’ll do the trick against a Patriots team I’m not fully sold on just yet.

New England is an even 2-2, but its wins have come against the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. Conversely, its losses were to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers.

I need to see a little more before I’m willing to buy in on the Patriots.

Buffalo received some positive injury news, too, with Matt Milano and Ed Oliver both listed as questionable after missing multiple weeks. If even one of the two can rejoin the lineup, that’ll be a significant boost for the Bills.

Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Allen over 228.5 passing yards (-118): Allen has only topped this total in one of four games, but he’s a good pick to do it in this spot.

The Patriots have a pass-funnel defence. They’re tied for allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.3), but surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass (7.7).

New England is allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (241.5), and it’s not like it’s faced a gauntlet of QBs:

Geno Smith
Tua Tagovailoa
Aaron Rodgers
Bryce Young

Allen shouldn’t have much resistance throwing the ball on Sunday.

Henry under 41.5 receiving yards (-118): Lastly, I’m fading Henry.

The tight end has been a go-to target early in Drake Maye’s career, but there appears to be a shift on the way.

Henry has gone below this total in two of his last three games, and Stefon Diggs is taking on a larger role.

The ex-Bills receiver played a season-high 63.3% of the offensive snaps in Week 4 and turned in a six-catch, 101-yard performance.

The matchup is a stay-away spot for Henry, as the Bills are allowing the fewest yards per game to tight ends this season (16.8).

Patriots vs. Bills predictions made at 2:35 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Patriots vs. Bills SNF Week 5 SGP predictions: Back Allen and Buffalo in +500 ticket

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet in prime time on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame night: It may be early, but this game will go a long way in deciding the AFC East. A Buffalo win puts the team three games clear of any divisional foe; a loss brings New England within one game of the Bills. The stakes are high in Western New York.

Check out my +500 Patriots vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Josh Allen and Hunter Henry.

Patriots vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Bills -8.5 | Allen over 224.5 passing yards | Henry over 41.5 receiving yards (+500)

Bills -8.5 (-104): Buffalo hasn’t been covering spreads, but it has been winning by double digits.

Despite being a middling 2-2 against the spread, the Bills have won three of their four games by 10-plus points.

That’ll do the trick against a Patriots team I’m not fully sold on just yet.

New England is an even 2-2, but its wins have come against the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. Conversely, its losses were to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers.

I need to see a little more before I’m willing to buy in on the Patriots.

Buffalo received some positive injury news, too, with Matt Milano and Ed Oliver both listed as questionable after missing multiple weeks. If even one of the two can rejoin the lineup, that’ll be a significant boost for the Bills.

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Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Allen over 224.5 passing yards (-114): Allen has only topped this total in one of four games, but he’s a good pick to do it in this spot.

The Patriots have a pass-funnel defence. They’re tied for allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.3), but surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass (7.7).

New England is allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (241.5), and it’s not like it’s faced a gauntlet of QBs:

Geno Smith
Tua Tagovailoa
Aaron Rodgers
Bryce Young

Allen shouldn’t have much resistance throwing the ball on Sunday.

Henry under 41.5 receiving yards (-115): Lastly, I’m fading Henry.

The tight end has been a go-to target early in Drake Maye’s career, but there appears to be a shift on the way.

Henry has gone below this total in two of his last three games, and Stefon Diggs is taking on a larger role.

The ex-Bills receiver played a season-high 63.3% of the offensive snaps in Week 4 and turned in a six-catch, 101-yard performance.

The matchup is a stay-away spot for Henry, as the Bills are allowing the fewest yards per game to tight ends this season (16.8).

Patriots vs. Bills predictions made at 2:35 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 1 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on L.A., Andy Pages in +175 ticket

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: It’s very reasonable to say that the NL’s two best teams are meeting up in this series. Los Angeles enters Game 1 as an underdog, but I’ll happily back the visiting club on this ticket. I’m also looking to back a certain L.A. outfielder.

Check out my +175 Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Andy Pages.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers ML | Pages 1+ hits (+175)

Dodgers ML (-106): Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for L.A., and that’s bad news for Philadelphia.

The Dodgers starter enters the playoffs in fine form. He pitched 14.2 innings across three appearances in September, allowing zero earned runs, striking out 18, and surrendering two walks.

That included five hitless innings with five punchouts against Philadelphia.

Historically, Phillies hitters are batting a lowly .091 with a dreadful .252 xwOBA in 23 plate appearances versus Ohtani.

The southpaw also boasts a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against this lineup.

Sanchez starts for Philadelphia, and there’s reason to be concerned, but more on that later.

MLB SGP legs

Pages 1+ hits (-200): I like the value on Pages to get a hit for several reasons.

Firstly, this is a pretty solid hitter. Pages batted .272 on the campaign, bringing his average up 24 points from the previous season (.248).

The outfielder does well against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez, too, which helps his cause in this contest. Pages posted a .313 BA vs. LHPs this year, compared to just .258 BA vs. RHPs.

He’s also familiar with Sanchez, specifically. The two have squared off 10 times, with Pages registering a hit in four of their meetings.

Pages swatted two hits against Sanchez the last time these two squared off on Sept. 16.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 12:36 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 1 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on L.A., Andy Pages in +275 ticket

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: It’s very reasonable to say that the NL’s two best teams are meeting up in this series. Los Angeles enters Game 1 as an underdog, but I’ll happily back the visiting club on this ticket. I’m also looking to back a certain L.A. outfielder and fade Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez.

Check out my +275 Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Andy Pages.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers ML | Pages 1+ hits | Sanchez under 6.5 Ks (+275)

Dodgers ML (+104): Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for L.A., and that’s bad news for Philadelphia.

The Dodgers starter enters the playoffs in fine form. He pitched 14.2 innings across three appearances in September, allowing zero earned runs, striking out 18, and surrendering two walks.

That included five hitless innings with five punchouts against Philadelphia.

Historically, Phillies hitters are batting a lowly .091 with a dreadful .252 xwOBA in 23 plate appearances versus Ohtani.

The southpaw also boasts a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against this lineup.

Sanchez starts for Philadelphia, and there’s reason to be concerned, but more on that later.

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MLB SGP legs

Pages 1+ hits (-180): I like the value on Pages to get a hit for several reasons.

Firstly, this is a pretty solid hitter. Pages batted .272 on the campaign, bringing his average up 24 points from the previous season (.248).

The outfielder does well against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez, too, which helps his cause in this contest. Pages posted a .313 BA vs. LHPs this year, compared to just .258 BA vs. RHPs.

He’s also familiar with Sanchez, specifically. The two have squared off 10 times, with Pages registering a hit in four of their meetings.

Pages swatted two hits against Sanchez the last time these two squared off on Sept. 16.

Sanchez under 6.5 strikeouts (-182): Lastly, I’m fading Sanchez on his strikeouts prop.

Sanchez was one of MLB’s best at generating punchouts this past season, ranking seventh among all hurlers (212 Ks).

But this number seems a little too high for several reasons.

Firstly, this isn’t a total Sanchez tops regularly. The lefty has gone below this mark in nine of his last 12 outings. One of those misses was a six-strikeout effort vs. this Dodgers squad.

Additionally, L.A. has been able to generate offence against Sanchez in their meetings. Sanchez surrendered eight earned runs across two appearances vs. L.A. this year.

With managers having a lower tolerance for pitching woes in the postseason, a shorter outing from Sanchez likely keeps him below the number.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 12:36 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

Shanghai Masters round of 32 picks and predictions: Best bets on Goffin vs. Diallo, Vacherot vs. Machac

A match involving a Canadian headlines my Shanghai Masters predictions.

The pre-match narrative: Gabriel Diallo has had a breakout 2025, but he should be in for a lengthy match with David Goffin. Tomas Machac’s game has plateaued after making major strides in recent years, although a tidy victory over Valentin Vacherot is likely on deck.

Check out my top Shanghai Masters predictions for the round of 32.

Shanghai Masters predictions: Round of 32

Best Bet: Goffin vs. Diallo over 2.5 sets (+125)

Diallo and Goffin are two players in completely different stages of their careers.

The former is just entering his prime. He won his first ATP Tour title in 2025 (Libema Open) and posted a strong 34-25 record overall.

The latter is in the latter stages of his career. At 34, Goffin’s best days appear to be firmly in the rearview. He owns a brutal 14-21 record overall this year, and will likely end 2025 with a losing record for just the second time in his career.

So why do I expect this match to need three sets?

Firstly, Goffin is playing some strong tennis at the moment. He beat Ben Shelton in straight sets in the round of 64, playing a clean game with 18 winners and just six unforced errors.

A performance like that is certainly worth highlighting.

What’s also worth noting is how he performed in his lone match versus Diallo. He toppled the Canadian in three sets at last year’s Australian Open qualifiers.

Goffin remains a solid returner at this point in his career, ranking 40th in return rating. That’s more than 20 spots higher than Diallo (66).

I expect Goffin to steal a set as a very able returner and make this a close match.

Key stat: Four of Goffin’s last six matches have needed three sets.

Full tennis betting markets

Shanghai Masters best bet: Vacherot vs. Machac

Machac -1.5 sets (-120): Vacherot enters this match with plenty to feel good about. He just earned one of the biggest wins of his career, toppling Alexander Bublik in three sets.

But plenty is working against the Monegasque tennis player in this contest.

For starters, Vacherot has had to fight for everything at the Shanghai Masters. He won two, three-set matches in the qualifying just to make the draw, and has now played five sets across two matches in the main draw.

In total, he’s logged eight hours and 32 minutes on court.

Machac, for comparison, has played only one match, with one hour and 48 minutes spent on court.

The skill gap is hard to ignore, too. Here’s how Machac ranks in serve, return, and under pressure rating:

Serve: 34th
Return: 18th
Under pressure: 18th

Vacherot ranks outside the top 83 in all three categories.

Bet on Machac to roll in this contest.

Tennis predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 10/04/2025.

Shanghai Masters round of 32 picks and predictions: Best bets on Goffin vs. Diallo, Vacherot vs. Machac

A match involving a Canadian headlines my Shanghai Masters predictions.

The pre-match narrative: Gabriel Diallo has had a breakout 2025, but he should be in for a lengthy match with David Goffin. Tomas Machac’s game has plateaued after making major strides in recent years, although a tidy victory over Valentin Vacherot is likely on deck.

Check out my top Shanghai Masters predictions for the round of 32.

Shanghai Masters predictions: Round of 32

Best Bet: Goffin vs. Diallo over 2.5 sets (+132)

Diallo and Goffin are two players in completely different stages of their careers.

The former is just entering his prime. He won his first ATP Tour title in 2025 (Libema Open) and posted a strong 34-25 record overall.

The latter is in the latter stages of his career. At 34, Goffin’s best days appear to be firmly in the rearview. He owns a brutal 14-21 record overall this year, and will likely end 2025 with a losing record for just the second time in his career.

So why do I expect this match to need three sets?

Firstly, Goffin is playing some strong tennis at the moment. He beat Ben Shelton in straight sets in the round of 64, playing a clean game with 18 winners and just six unforced errors.

A performance like that is certainly worth highlighting.

What’s also worth noting is how he performed in his lone match versus Diallo. He toppled the Canadian in three sets at last year’s Australian Open qualifiers.

Goffin remains a solid returner at this point in his career, ranking 40th in return rating. That’s more than 20 spots higher than Diallo (66).

I expect Goffin to steal a set as a very able returner and make this a close match.

Key stat: Four of Goffin’s last six matches have needed three sets.

Full tennis betting markets

Shanghai Masters best bet: Vacherot vs. Machac

Machac -1.5 sets (-105): Vacherot enters this match with plenty to feel good about. He just earned one of the biggest wins of his career, toppling Alexander Bublik in three sets.

But plenty is working against the Monegasque tennis player in this contest.

For starters, Vacherot has had to fight for everything at the Shanghai Masters. He won two, three-set matches in the qualifying just to make the draw, and has now played five sets across two matches in the main draw.

In total, he’s logged eight hours and 32 minutes on court.

Machac, for comparison, has played only one match, with one hour and 48 minutes spent on court.

The skill gap is hard to ignore, too. Here’s how Machac ranks in serve, return, and under pressure rating:

Serve: 34th
Return: 18th
Under pressure: 18th

Vacherot ranks outside the top 83 in all three categories.

Bet on Machac to roll in this contest.

Tennis predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 10/04/2025.

NFL Week 5 schedule, odds and betting lines: Matchups and top storylines

You won’t find many lopsided matchups on the NFL Week 5 schedule.

The latest: The upcoming action starts with a must-see matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. Then, on Sunday, the Washington Commanders visit the Los Angeles Chargers before the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Check out the latest NFL Week 5 schedule below.

NFL Week 5 schedule notes

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge. ENTER NOW!

It’s early, but San Francisco and Los Angeles meet in a game that has significant divisional implications. The Rams swept the season series a year ago, but the Niners had won nine of the previous 11 before 2024.

The Minnesota Vikings are hoping for better luck in London after the team fell short against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dublin. Their opponent, the Cleveland Browns, is coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions.

The Jaxson Dart era started with a bang! The rookie quarterback led the New York Giants to an upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Malik Nabers did leave the contest on a cart with a feared ACL injury, though. The G-Men battle the New Orleans Saints next.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered their first loss of the season to the Philadelphia Eagles. Upcoming is a road trip to battle the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle took care of business with a win over the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football, enjoying a rest advantage ahead of this contest.

The Buffalo Bills continue to coast through inferior opponents. The team has won by double digits in three consecutive weeks and now hosts the divisional rival New England Patriots. The Pats are coming off a convincing, 42-13 win over the Carolina Panthers.

NFL Week 5 matchups: Thursday night and Sunday morning

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns

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Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets

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Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

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New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts

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Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers

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Sunday’s 4 p.m. slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals

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Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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Sunday & Monday Night Football matchups

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Jets vs. Dolphins MNF Week 4 SGP predictions: Bet on Waddle, Allen in +333 ticket

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins seek their first win of the season on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: These two AFC East rivals are winless through three weeks. The loser will be on thin ice after this, while the winner will salvage some hope that it can turn things around. Which team can score a victory in primetime?

Check out my Jets vs. Dolphins same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below, featuring Jaylen Waddle and Braelon Allen.

Jets vs. Dolphins SGP predictions

SGP: Waddle over 50.5 receiving yards | Allen over 14.5 rushing yards | Over 37.5 points (+333)

Waddle over 50.5 receiving yards (-118): This shapes up as a plus matchup for Waddle.

New York’s corner depth is thin. With Sauce Gardner likely shadowing Tyreek Hill in this contest, Waddle should find room to operate against the rest of the Jets’ corners.

Brandon Stephens is the starter opposite Gardner. He doesn’t tend to shadow receivers, but he has struggled against the receivers he has seen most frequently.

Week 1 vs. Calvin Austin: Four receptions, 57 yards, 63.3% shadow rate

Week 2 vs. Keon Coleman: Three receptions, 34 yards, 25.0% shadow rate

Week 3 vs. Sterling Shepard: Four receptions, 34 yards, 32.1% shadow rate

With Waddle likely being the best receiver Stephens has faced to this point, there’s an opportunity for him to have a massive day.

Waddle has historically done very well in this matchup. He has topped this mark in three of his last four games against New York, averaging just short of 100 yards per game (99.8).

Monday Night Football SGP picks

Allen over 14.5 rushing yards (-125): The game script seems to dictate Allen’s usage for the Jets.

In Weeks 1 and 3, Allen was given six carries. Those were close, tightly contested games decided by just two points each.

Allen received just two carries in Week 2’s blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills, an outing where the Jets were forced to abandon the run early.

The Dolphins are just 2.5-point favourites in Week 4, meaning we’re likely headed for a close game. That bodes well for Allen.

So does Miami’s porous run defence. Miami is tied for ceding the 10th-most yards per rush attempt (4.5) and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.0).

Allen has an impressive 41 rushing yards on just eight carries across his last two games.

Over 37.5 points (-275): I’ve teased the total down, and I’m happily taking the over.

Neither defence has shown that it’s any good this year. Miami is tied for allowing the third-most yards per play (6.1), while New York is tied for surrendering the 13th most (5.4).

Conversely, both offences have proven to be competent. The Dolphins have scored 20-plus points in each of their last two outings. New York, meanwhile, is actually a respectable 16th in points per game (23.0 ).

The over on this total has hit in all three games for each team.

Jets vs. Dolphins predictions made at 12:49 p.m. on 09/28/2025.

Jets vs. Dolphins MNF Week 4 SGP predictions: Bet on Waddle, Allen in +325 ticket

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins seek their first win of the season on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: These two AFC East rivals are winless through three weeks. The loser will be on thin ice after this, while the winner will salvage some hope that it can turn things around. Which team can score a victory in primetime?

Check out my Jets vs. Dolphins same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below, featuring Jaylen Waddle and Braelon Allen.

Jets vs. Dolphins SGP predictions

SGP: Waddle over 48.5 receiving yards | Allen over 17.5 rushing yards | Over 37.5 points (+325)

Waddle over 48.5 receiving yards (-117): This shapes up as a plus matchup for Waddle.

New York’s corner depth is thin. With Sauce Gardner likely shadowing Tyreek Hill in this contest, Waddle should find room to operate against the rest of the Jets’ corners.

Brandon Stephens is the starter opposite Gardner. He doesn’t tend to shadow receivers, but he has struggled against the receivers he has seen most frequently.

Week 1 vs. Calvin Austin: Four receptions, 57 yards, 63.3% shadow rate

Week 2 vs. Keon Coleman: Three receptions, 34 yards, 25.0% shadow rate

Week 3 vs. Sterling Shepard: Four receptions, 34 yards, 32.1% shadow rate

With Waddle likely being the best receiver Stephens has faced to this point, there’s an opportunity for him to have a massive day.

Waddle has historically done very well in this matchup. He has topped this mark in three of his last four games against New York, averaging just short of 100 yards per game (99.8).

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Monday Night Football SGP picks

Allen over 16.5 rushing yards (-117): The game script seems to dictate Allen’s usage for the Jets.