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Sabres vs. Maple Leafs prop picks Oct. 25: Bet on John Tavares to top his shot prop

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to salvage a win from their home-and-home series with the Buffalo Sabres.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost the game and William Nylander on Friday night. Nylander’s status for tonight’s game is uncertain, and that’s bad news for the team’s offence. Cayden Primeau gets the start, and that could be problematic as well.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Sabres for the game on Oct. 25, featuring John Tavares.

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Maple Leafs picks vs. Sabres

Best Bet: Tavares over 2.5 shots (-106)

This isn’t a line Tavares is beating with much regularity this season.

But he topped it last night, and there’s reason to believe in a repeat performance.

Toronto switched up its forward lines ahead of Friday’s game. The team bumped Nylander to the first line with Auston Matthews, while putting Matthew Knies on Tavares’ wing on the second line.

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As a result, Tavares finished the game with three shots, his second-highest total of the season.

Having a player like Knies, who is a great puck retriever, should lead to more shot opportunities for Tavares.

The matchup doesn’t get any better for Tavares. Buffalo is allowing the most shots per game this season (33.3).

It surrendered 34 shots to Toronto in last night’s contest.

Bet on a solid shot showing from Tavares.

Key stat: Tavares has topped this prop in each of his last two games, totalling eight shots.

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Best NHL prop predictions

Zach Benson to score 1+ points (-120): Buffalo is getting key contributions from several young players early on, including Benson.

The centre has seven points in five games this season, registering at least one in four of five outings.

That includes an assist in last night’s win over the Maple Leafs.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sabres vs. Maple Leafs prop markets

Benson’s chances of producing are bolstered by the fact that Primeau is in net tonight. The backup netminder allowed four goals in his lone appearance this year, and has an .884 save percentage across 56 career starts.

Benson plays on Buffalo’s first line and top power-play unit. If the Sabres are scoring, he’s likely factoring in.

Alex Tuch to score 1+ points (-130): This is another wager I can get behind.

Tuch is tied with Benson for the team lead in points (seven) and has a point in five of his last six games.

He scored a pair of points in last night’s win against the Maple Leafs and is poised to produce once again.

Tuch plays all situations for the Sabres, leading all forwards in average ice time (20:09).

He should see plenty of opportunities to score against a Toronto squad ceding the fifth-most goals per game (3.75).

Maple Leafs picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET 10/25/2025.

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Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 2 World Series SGP predictions: Bet on Kirk, Toronto in +330 ticket

The Toronto Blue Jays set their sights on taking a 2-0 World Series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s lineup continues to break opposing pitchers. It faces arguably its toughest test yet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting in Game 2. Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who has been stellar in October.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Blue Jays predictions for World Series Game 1, featuring prop bets on Yamamoto and Alejandro Kirk.

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Dodgers vs. Blue Jays predictions

Blue Jays +1.5 | Yamamoto under 5.5 strikeouts | Kirk 1+ hits (+330)

Blue Jays +1.5 (-148): The Blue Jays continue to deliver at the dish.

Toronto lit up Los Angeles for 11 runs in Game 1, tagging Blake Snell for eight hits and five runs across five innings. It then proceeded to chase Emmet Sheehan and Anthony Banda out of the ball game, putting six runs up on the two relievers.

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The Blue Jays have now scored 44 runs across their last six games (7.3 per game).

For Toronto to keep this a one-run game or better, however, it will need a solid start from Gausman.

Taming the Dodgers is a tough task for any starter, but there’s reason to believe Gausman can do it.

The veteran has only allowed four runs across 18.0 innings pitched this postseason.

A strong pitching outing and another solid day from the bats should cash this wager from Toronto.

MLB SGP legs

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Yamamoto under 5.5 strikeouts (+106): Yamamoto has been stellar this postseason, but there’s reason to fade him on this prop in Game 2.

The Dodgers superstar is averaging six strikeouts per start this postseason, putting him slightly above this number. Expecting an above-average day against Toronto, however, seems unlikely.

The Blue Jays are averaging the fewest strikeouts per game this postseason (5.67).

This trend is nothing new. Toronto has averaged the fewest strikeouts per game all year long (6.71).

Kirk 1+ hits (-175): Kirk was clutch in Game 1.

Toronto’s catcher delivered three hits — including a two-run home run — in the World Series opener. He has a hit in four consecutive games, and in nine of 12 games this postseason (75%).

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That represents a significantly higher hit rate than the implied odds associated with this wager (63.6%).

Even more encouraging is the type of contact Kirk is making. Kirk isn’t just swatting singles as six of his 13 hits have gone for extra bases.

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays predictions as of 10:46 a.m. on 10/25/2025.

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Texans vs. Seahawks MNF Week 7 SGP predictions: Back Houston, fade Darnold in +275 ticket

The Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks end Week 7 as the second leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: This game profiles as a defensive showdown. Houston leaned on its defence to win back-to-back games before its bye. Seattle’s defence has led it to four wins in its last five games. With offence likely being hard to come by, how should bettors treat Monday Night Football?

Check out my Texans vs. Seahawks same-game parlay predictions for Week 7, featuring Sam Darnold.

Texans vs. Seahawks SGP predictions

SGP: Texans +3.5 | Under 48.5 points | Darnold under 219.5 pass yards (+275)

Texans +3.5 (-121): I expect Houston’s defence to keep this game close.

The Texans may have an uninspiring 2-3 record, but they’ve been competitive in every game they’ve played.

Houston has covered this spread in three of its last four games and has played in five one-score games this season.

Its defence can be thanked for that. The Texans are allowing the fewest points per game (12.2) and are tied for eighth in interceptions (five).

Star pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can generate pressure, which has long been the kryptonite of Seattle’s Darnold.

I expect the QB to be under siege all night, which should keep the Texans within this number.

Monday Night Football SGP picks

Under 48.5 points (-295): I don’t anticipate either offence lighting it up.

Houston will be without Christian Kirk, who was the team’s leading receiver in its 44-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans are averaging 35 points per game with Kirk in the lineup and 12.6 points per game without him.

Now that’s not all because of Kirk, but it is worth pointing out the stark contrast.

Like all offences this year, I expect Seattle to struggle against a stingy Houston defence. No team has scored more than 20 points against the unit.

The under on this total has cashed in four of the Texans’ five games this year.

Darnold under 219.5 passing yards (-114): Lastly, Darnold should struggle mightily.

Opposing passers just aren’t able to generate much against Houston.

The Texans are tied for fourth in opposing yards per pass attempt (5.7) and are surrendering the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (175.2).

Struggling when facing pressure has unfortunately been Darnold’s biggest weakness in the NFL. It’s the very reason why the Minnesota Vikings crashed out of the playoffs and let him walk last season despite going 14-3.

Additionally, Seattle’s offence revolves around the run. It has the highest run-play percentage in the league (49.71%), featuring Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet on the ground.

Lastly, Darnold has gone under this number in two of his three home starts this year.

Texans vs. Seahawks predictions made at 12:37 p.m. on 10/19/2025.

Falcons vs. 49ers SNF Week 7 SGP predictions: Bet on Atlanta, Kyle Pitts to deliver in +575 ticket

The Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers meet in an all-NFC showdown on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta is coming off its biggest win of the season, while San Francisco continues to suffer with injuries. Both squads are competing for first place in their respective divisions, and in the hunt for top spot in what’s a wide-open NFC.

Check out my +575 Falcons vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions for Week 7 below, featuring Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Pitts.

Falcons vs. 49ers SGP predictions

SGP: Falcons ML | McCaffrey under 45.5 receiving yards | Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (+575)

Falcons ML (+112): Atlanta is for real.

The Falcons were already a solid football team last year with one obvious flaw: their pass rush.

But Atlanta addressed that issue in the draft and now has respectable numbers in that department:

First in blitz percentage (39.9%)
11th in sacks (14)
32nd in missed tackles (16)

Atlanta is dialling up the blitz and getting home a fair amount.

That’s bad news for Mac Jones, as he was listed with knee and oblique injuries on the practice report this week.

No team is getting hit harder by the injury bug than San Francisco. Standouts Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Brandon Aiyuk will all miss this game.

You know the injuries are an issue when McCaffrey is the healthiest player on offence.

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Sunday Night Football SGP picks

McCaffrey under 45.5 receiving yards (-112): McCaffrey is a perfect 6-for-6 against this line this season.

So why am I backing the under?

Firstly, there should be more competition for targets in this contest. George Kittle is returning for the Niners, while Jauan Jennings should be a little healthier in his second game back from injury.

The matchup is also a major stayaway in this market.

No team has been tougher on opposing running backs in the passing game than Atlanta, allowing a league-low 13.8 receiving yards per game to the position.

Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (-117): Lastly, I’m expecting Pitts to find some room to operate over the middle of the field.

This pick really boils down to one thing: Warner’s injury. He’s one of the best linebackers in the NFL, boasting elite athleticism and coverage skills.

There’s no replacement for somebody like Warner.

Pitts’ combination of size and speed makes him a difficult matchup for a depleted San Francisco defence.

The tight end has topped this total in four of five games this season.

Falcons vs. 49ers predictions made at 10:35 a.m. on 10/19/2025.

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Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 6 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Toronto to win in +400 ticket

The Toronto Blue Jays are in must-win territory as they enter Game 6 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners.

The pregame narrative: Manager John Schneider’s decision to put Brendon Little in to Game 5 has been heavily (and rightfully) scrutinized. But Toronto has won two of the last three games of this series, and it returns to the friendly confines of Rogers Centre.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 6, featuring prop bets on Trey Yesavage and Ernie Clement.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts | Clement 1+ hits (+400)

Blue Jays ML (-129): Home-field advantage has been a real thing for Toronto this year.

No American League team won more home games than the Blue Jays this season (54). Toronto backed that up in the postseason by winning both of its games against the New York Yankees in the ALDS.

Bettors can’t ignore the fact that Seattle won both games in Toronto to start this series, but that can be viewed through two lenses:

Seattle can manage playing at Rogers Centre better than most.

An elite home team like Toronto is unlikely to lose three home games in one series.

I’m choosing to view Game 6 through the second lens.

Additionally, it’s hard to ignore Seattle starter Logan Gilbert’s noteworthy home-road splits:

Location	ERA	Opponent BA	OPS
Home	2.24	.158	.512
Road	4.74	.261	.767

Gilbert is a significantly better pitcher at T-Mobile Park than he is anywhere else.

I’ll gladly fade him in a high-pressure Game 6.

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MLB SGP legs

Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts (+128): There’s definitely some risk associated with this prop, but I’m happy to back it at this price.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. In a must-win game, the Blue Jays will not waste time going to the bullpen if Yesavage struggles.

It’s also concerning that the young pitcher didn’t perform in his lone start of this series. The Mariners chased Yesavage off the mound after just four innings as he allowed five runs during that stretch.

But the larger body of work suggests Yesavage will bounce back.

He was stellar in his first postseason start, hurling 5.1 innings of no-run ball with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees.

He was excellent in his three regular-season outings, posting a 3.21 ERA and 2.35 FIP across 14 innings.

This prop is boosted by the fact that Seattle leads the postseason in strikeouts (107), averaging 10.7 per contest.

Clement 1+ hits (-182): Lastly, I’m expecting Clement to do what he’s done all postseason long.

This guy has been a consistent bat for the Blue Jays. He’s second on the team in hits (15) and boasts an otherworldly .429 average in October.

Clement has cashed this prop in seven of nine games during the playoffs (77.7%), a much higher rate than the implied odds suggest (64.5%).

What also helps this wager is that if Clement is going to get on base, it’s almost certainly going to be with his bat. He has yet to produce a walk this postseason.

Clement scored a hit off Gilbert in Game 2.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions as of 9:44 a.m. on 10/19/2025.

Buccaneers vs. Lions Week 7 Monday Night Football picks: Bet on Detroit to cover, Goff to deliver

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet in a clash of NFC elites on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay enters this primetime showdown with the best record in the NFC. Detroit has slipped out of first in the NFC North after a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. This game should carry significant weight in the conference as both teams battle for first — and a potential tiebreaker.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Lions picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 20, featuring prop predictions for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield.

Buccaneers vs. Lions picks

Best Bet: Lions -6 (-110)

Tampa Bay might have the best record in the NFC, but I’m not completely sold on the Bucs.

Firstly, they haven’t really dominated their opposition. Last week’s 30-19 win over the San Francisco 49ers was Tampa’s first win by more than three points all season.

That victory requires some context, too, as the game was close until 49ers linebacker Fred Warner was carted off.

Even after the win, Tampa Bay’s +14 point differential ranks a mediocre seventh in the conference.

The Lions, meanwhile, have dominated the opposition. Their +49 point differential is tied for first in the NFC.

Injuries also loom large in this contest. Detroit has been severely short at cornerback, while Tampa Bay is feeling the pain all over.

Terrion Arnold is practicing ahead of this game, however, which would be a huge boost for the Lions.

Conversely, Tampa Bay may not have the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Detroit’s injuries. Chris Godwin is out, while Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are game-time decisions.

The Buccaneers’ injury woes extend to standouts Lavonte David and Bucky Irving.

I’ll take a Detroit squad that has squashed opponents at home.

Key stat: Detroit is 2-0 at home with a 27.5-point average margin of victory this season.

Monday Night Football ATS pick

Goff over 264.5 passing yards (-118): The biggest reason for picking Goff to go over this line is Mayfield.

The Buccaneers can score points, and they likely will get a decent amount in this contest. Tampa Bay is sixth in points per game (27.5), and Mayfield is playing at an MVP level.

It’s unlikely that Detroit races out to a big lead and looks to run out the clock.

That will keep Goff throwing the football in a plus matchup.

Tampa Bay is 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.0) and 21st in passing yards against per contest (231.3/game).

Mayfield over 247.5 passing yards (-118): This line should be in play for Mayfield in a game where I expect the Bucs to play catch-up.

Detroit’s offence lighting it up at home seems inevitable. The Lions averaged a league-high 34.9 PPG at home in 2024 and have posted 86 points through two matchups at Ford Field this year.

A pass-heavy attack will lead to a high passing output.

Detroit’s cornerback injuries are also a plus. The team will still be shorthanded even if Arnold returns.

It also helps that this number is well within range for Mayfield. The Bucs QB is averaging 256.5 passing yards per game.

Buccaneers vs. Lions picks made at 1:53 p.m. ET 10/18/2025.

Buccaneers vs. Lions Week 7 Monday Night Football picks: Bet on Detroit to cover, Goff to deliver

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet in a clash of NFC elites on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay enters this primetime showdown with the best record in the NFC. Detroit has slipped out of first in the NFC North after a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. This game should carry significant weight in the conference as both teams battle for first — and a potential tiebreaker.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Lions picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 20, featuring prop predictions for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield.

Buccaneers vs. Lions picks

Best Bet: Lions -6 (-107)