Staff Writer

Celtics vs. Clippers SGP predictions Jan. 3: Fade Jaylen Brown, bet on Afernee Simmons in +300 ticket

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers close out Saturday’s NBA slate in an intriguing matchup.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles’ recent play makes this game one fans should be excited for. The Clippers have won their last six games leading up to this contest, largely blowing out the competition in the process. Boston, meanwhile, has won six of its last seven outings.

Check out my Celtics vs. Clippers SGP predictions for Jan. 3, featuring prop bets on Jaylen Brown and Anfernee Simons.

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Celtics vs. Clippers SGP

Parlay: Brown under 30.5 points | Simons over 10.5 points | Under 224.5 points (+300)

Brown under 30.5 points (-150): Brown’s season-long average hovers right around this mark (29.5), but I’m skeptical of his chances of getting near it tonight.

The Celtics’ small forward isn’t topping this mark with much regularity ahead of this contest. Brown has notched 30 points or fewer in seven of his last 10 games.

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Additionally, this isn’t a plus matchup for Brown. Los Angeles has been tough on small forwards this season, surrendering the 10th-fewest points per game to the position (22.26), per Fantasy Pros.

Brown is also coming off one of his worst three-point shooting efforts of the season, going 1-for-9 from beyond the arc against the San Antonio Spurs.

NBA SGP legs

Simons over 10.5 points (-162): I do expect, however, Simons to clear his point total.

Simons is averaging 13.1 points per game this season, meaning this total is well within his reach.

The point guard is getting 23.9 minutes per game this season, but he’s averaged 29.0 minutes per game across his last two contests.

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Naturally, he topped this total in both those games.

Looking even further back, Simons has recorded 11-plus points in six of his last seven performances.

The Celtics are a tough matchup for opposing PGs, surrendering the fifth-fewest points per game (24.26), but I expect him to still get by this manageable total.

Under 224.5 points (-152): Two of the NBA’s better under teams should play to a low-scoring game:

L.A. is tied for the eighth-best under percentage in the NBA (54.6%).

Boston is also tied for the eighth-best under rate in the NBA.

The Clippers have gone under this total plenty ahead of this contest. The under on 224.5 points has hit in each of their last four contests.

Boston, meanwhile, is a pretty pedestrian offensive squad. It is 14th in points per game this season (117.0).

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Celtics vs. Clippers predictions made at 2:19 p.m. on Jan. 3, 2026.

NFL Week 18 TD picks: Bet on trio of long shots in regular season finale

I’m attacking one of the most unpredictable weeks of the NFL season with three long-shot touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Connor Heyward has sneaky value to score a touchdown as an understated member of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ red-zone offence. Sean Tucker is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ preferred goal-line back and has nice odds to find pay dirt.

Check out my top NFL Week 18 TD picks, featuring Brock Purdy.

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NFL Week 18 TD picks

Best bet: Heyward to score a TD (+750)

We’re going out with a bang with this touchdown pick.

This is the final game of the NFL season, and it could potentially be the last game of Aaron Rodgers’ career. I expect the Steelers to do everything they can to win this game, and that should involve Heyward getting the ball.

When Pittsburgh is in short-yardage situations, it will utilize the tush push. Unlike the Philadelphia Eagles, who put the ball in Jalen Hurts’ hands, the Steelers don’t turn to their quarterback.

They look to Heyward.

-> Go to full Ravens vs. Steelers prop markets

In fact, Heyward scored a tush push touchdown just a few weeks ago in Week 15.

The Steelers are giving him the ball more in recent outings, too. Heyward only had six carries through the first 13 weeks of the season.

He’s matched that total in the last three weeks.

Pittsburgh is short on offensive talent, too. The team is without DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington for this contest.

I expect Heyward’s involvement to rise and for him to have a chance at a short touchdown.

Key stat: Heyward is tied for the team lead in carries inside the five over the last four weeks (two).

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NFL Week 18 touchdown bets

Tucker to score a TD (+200): Tampa Bay’s top red zone running back is a nice value to score a touchdown.

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Tucker has the third-best odds to score a TD on the Bucs, coming in behind fellow running back Bucky Irving.

But I don’t think that should be the case:

Tucker leads Tampa Bay in carries inside the 20 (21), inside the 10 (14), and inside the five (11) this season.

Irving has not recorded a carry inside the five since returning from injury in Week 13. Tucker has seven carries inside the five during the same stretch.

Tucker has a touchdown in three of his last four games, including in his team’s Week 16 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Purdy to score a TD (+500): Lastly, I’m betting on Purdy shining on a big stage.

Purdy showed in Week 17 that he’s going to take off when he needs to. He turned six carries into 28 yards and two scores in his team’s win over the Chicago Bears.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Purdy is now up to three rushing touchdowns in his last four games.

The Seattle Seahawks rank fifth in pressure percentage (26.1%) and should be able to flush Purdy out of the pocket. When that happens near the end zone, expect Purdy to look to score himself.

NFL TD picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bet Jan. 3: Fade Nickeil Alexander-Walker

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors collide on Saturday night in an Eastern Conference tilt.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta just snapped a seven-game losing streak, and now faces a Toronto squad that’s won back-to-back games. The Raptors haven’t been able to string together a three-plus game winning streak since late November, making tonight a prime opportunity to heat back up.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets for Jan. 3, featuring a prediction for Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bet

Best Bet: Alexander-Walker under 20.5 points (-106)

I’m backing a Canadian and fading another in my prop picks.

Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.4 points per game, putting this number within reach, but there are several reasons to fade him on Saturday.

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Firstly, his scoring is sporadic. Alexander-Walker has topped this total in four of his last seven games, but he’s had 11 points or fewer in two of those misses.

Secondly, this is a very tough matchup for opposing shooting guards like Alexander-Walker. The Raptors are very stingy against the position, ceding the fourth-fewest points to opposing SGs (20.61).

I’m betting on Alexander-Walker having an underwhelming effort in this spot.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets made at 10:39 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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NFL Week 18 TD picks: Bet on trio of long shots in regular season finale

I’m attacking one of the most unpredictable weeks of the NFL season with three long-shot touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Connor Heyward has sneaky value to score a touchdown as an understated member of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ red-zone offence. Sean Tucker is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ preferred goal-line back and has nice odds to find pay dirt.

Check out my top NFL Week 18 TD picks, featuring Brock Purdy.

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NFL Week 18 TD picks

Best bet: Heyward to score a TD (+950)

We’re going out with a bang with this touchdown pick.

This is the final game of the NFL season, and it could potentially be the last game of Aaron Rodgers’ career. I expect the Steelers to do everything they can to win this game, and that should involve Heyward getting the ball.

When Pittsburgh is in short-yardage situations, it will utilize the tush push. Unlike the Philadelphia Eagles, who put the ball in Jalen Hurts’ hands, the Steelers don’t turn to their quarterback.

They look to Heyward.

-> Go to full Ravens vs. Steelers prop markets

In fact, Heyward scored a tush push touchdown just a few weeks ago in Week 15.

The Steelers are giving him the ball more in recent outings, too. Heyward only had six carries through the first 13 weeks of the season.

He’s matched that total in the last three weeks.

Pittsburgh is short on offensive talent, too. The team is without DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington for this contest.

I expect Heyward’s involvement to rise and for him to have a chance at a short touchdown.

Key stat: Heyward is tied for the team lead in carries inside the five over the last four weeks (two).

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 18!

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NFL Week 18 touchdown bets

Tucker to score a TD (+260): Tampa Bay’s top red zone running back is a nice value to score a touchdown.

-> Bet on Saturday’s NFL prop markets

Tucker has the third-best odds to score a TD on the Bucs, coming in behind fellow running back Bucky Irving.

But I don’t think that should be the case:

Tucker leads Tampa Bay in carries inside the 20 (21), inside the 10 (14), and inside the five (11) this season.

Irving has not recorded a carry inside the five since returning from injury in Week 13. Tucker has seven carries inside the five during the same stretch.

Tucker has a touchdown in three of his last four games, including in his team’s Week 16 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Purdy to score a TD (+575): Lastly, I’m betting on Purdy shining on a big stage.

Purdy showed in Week 17 that he’s going to take off when he needs to. He turned six carries into 28 yards and two scores in his team’s win over the Chicago Bears.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Purdy is now up to three rushing touchdowns in his last four games.

The Seattle Seahawks rank fifth in pressure percentage (26.1%) and should be able to flush Purdy out of the pocket. When that happens near the end zone, expect Purdy to look to score himself.

NFL TD picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets Jan. 3: Bet on RJ Barrett to clear assists prop

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors collide on Saturday night in an Eastern Conference tilt.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta just snapped a seven-game losing streak, and now faces a Toronto squad that’s won back-to-back games. The Raptors haven’t been able to string together a three-plus game winning streak since late November, making tonight a prime opportunity to heat back up.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets for Jan. 3, featuring predictions for RJ Barrett and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets

Best Bet: Barrett over 3.5 assists (+128)

Barrett isn’t an elite assists compiler, but there’s reason to want in at this number.

The Toronto small forward is averaging 3.7 dishes per game, putting this plus-money bet right in his range.

-> Bet on RJ Barrett tonight!

Additionally, this is a number that Barrett beats on a fairly routine basis. Although Barrett has missed some time with a knee sprain, he has topped this total in 10 of his last 13 outings and in one of two since returning.

The Hawks aren’t a great defensive team, either, which should give Barrett plenty of assist opportunities.

Atlanta is allowing the seventh-most points per game in the NBA (119.5).

Another factor working in Barrett’s favour is how he’s performed against the Hawks this season. Barrett has nine assists across two matchups with Atlanta, clearing this total on both occasions.

Bet on another strong effort from Barrett as a facilitator on Saturday.

Key stat: The Hawks allow the 10th-most assists per game to opposing small forwards (4.47).

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Raptors picks and predictions

Alexander-Walker under 17.5 points (-127): I’m backing a Canadian and fading another in my prop picks.

Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.4 points per game, putting this number well within reach, but there are several reasons to fade him on Saturday.

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Firstly, his scoring is sporadic. Alexander-Walker has topped this total in four of his last seven games, but he’s had 11 points or fewer in two of those misses.

Secondly, this is a very tough matchup for opposing shooting guards like Alexander-Walker. The Raptors are very stingy against the position, ceding the fourth-fewest points to opposing SGs (20.61).

I’m betting on Alexander-Walker having an underwhelming effort in this spot.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets made at 10:39 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Best NFL Week 18 prop bets: Back Titans’ Tony Pollard, fade Ravens’ Lamar Jackson

Two overs and an under comprise my NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming action.

Today’s NFL prop bets narrative: The Baltimore Ravens are in must-win territory, but I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to ball out on Sunday Night Football. Elsewhere, I’m anticipating a big performance from Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard.

Check out my top NFL Week 18 prop bets, featuring a bet on Bryce Young.

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NFL Week 18 prop bets

Best bet: Jackson under 27.5 pass attempts (-120)

Baltimore putting this game in Jackson’s hands should be considered malpractice at this point.

The Ravens QB is clearly fighting through injuries and has not been healthy for almost the entire season.

The most obvious indicator of Jackson operating at less than full health is his diminished ability to avoid sacks.

-> Bet on Ravens vs. Steelers here

The usually nimble and evasive QB has been sacked on a career-worst 10.4% of his dropbacks this season.

In five fewer games played than last year, Jackson has been sacked 10 more times (33-23).

Baltimore is here thanks to the fantastic play of Derrick Henry in Week 17. The running back totalled 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries in a 41-24 victory over the Green Bay Packers.

Expect a heavy dose of Henry and fade a compromised Jackson on Sunday night.

Key stat: Jackson has gone under this number in eight of his last 12 games.

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Best NFL picks

Young over 18.5 rushing yards (-120): This is the biggest game of Young’s NFL career, and he’s going to do whatever he can to win the game.

That likely means plenty of rushing. Young’s rushing numbers are already up in recent outings. With Carolina fighting for the division, he’s topped this total in four consecutive games.

-> Bet on Bryce Young to top his rushing yards prop

In fact, Young is averaging 10-plus rushing yards per game more than this total (29.8).

This is a plus matchup for the Panthers QB, too, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (21.9).

Pollard over 65.5 rushing yards (-118): Leaning on Pollard has been a successful strategy for Tennessee.

The Titans running back has seen plenty of work ahead of Week 18. He’s averaging 19.5 carries and 113 rushing yards in his last four games.

Pollard has totalled 85-plus rushing yards in each of his last four outings, and I’m betting he can do it again.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on NFL Week 18!

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the toughest matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (68.1), but they did struggle to contain Pollard earlier this year.

Pollard had 60 rushing yards on just 10 carries in Week 14.

Oh, and Pollard is on bonus watch. The running back is owed $250,000 if he rushes for at least 65 yards.

NFL prop bets made at 3:03 p.m. ET on Jan. 2, 2026.

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Best NFL Week 18 prop bets: Back Titans’ Tony Pollard, fade Ravens’ Lamar Jackson

Two overs and an under comprise my NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming action.

Today’s NFL prop bets narrative: The Baltimore Ravens are in must-win territory, but I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to ball out on Sunday Night Football. Elsewhere, I’m anticipating a big performance from Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard.

Check out my top NFL Week 18 prop bets, featuring a bet on Bryce Young.

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NFL Week 18 prop bets

Best bet: Jackson under 27.5 pass attempts (-129)

Baltimore putting this game in Jackson’s hands should be considered malpractice at this point.

The Ravens QB is clearly fighting through injuries and has not been healthy for almost the entire season.

The most obvious indicator of Jackson operating at less than full health is his diminished ability to avoid sacks.

-> Bet on Ravens vs. Steelers here

The usually nimble and evasive QB has been sacked on a career-worst 10.4% of his dropbacks this season.

In five fewer games played than last year, Jackson has been sacked 10 more times (33-23).

Baltimore is here thanks to the fantastic play of Derrick Henry in Week 17. The running back totalled 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries in a 41-24 victory over the Green Bay Packers.

Expect a heavy dose of Henry and fade a compromised Jackson on Sunday night.

Key stat: Jackson has gone under this number in eight of his last 12 games.

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Best NFL picks

Young over 18.5 rushing yards (-115): This is the biggest game of Young’s NFL career, and he’s going to do whatever he can to win the game.

That likely means plenty of rushing. Young’s rushing numbers are already up in recent outings. With Carolina fighting for the division, he’s topped this total in four consecutive games.

-> Bet on Bryce Young to top his rushing yards prop

In fact, Young is averaging 10-plus rushing yards per game more than this total (29.8).

This is a plus matchup for the Panthers QB, too, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (21.9).

Pollard over 70.5 rushing yards (-114): Leaning on Pollard has been a successful strategy for Tennessee.

The Titans running back has seen plenty of work ahead of Week 18. He’s averaging 19.5 carries and 113 rushing yards in his last four games.

Pollard has totalled 85-plus rushing yards in each of his last four outings, and I’m betting he can do it again.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on NFL Week 18!

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the toughest matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (68.1), but they did struggle to contain Pollard earlier this year.

Pollard had 60 rushing yards on just 10 carries in Week 14.

Oh, and Pollard is on bonus watch. The running back is owed $250,000 if he rushes for at least 65 yards.

NFL prop bets made at 3:03 p.m. ET on Jan. 2, 2026.

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Panthers vs. Buccaneers Week 18 prop picks: Bet on Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard in big game

The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in a (kinda, sorta) winner-takes-all game on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The Panthers win the NFC South with a win. A Buccaneers victory, however, doesn’t guarantee them a spot. Instead, they’d need the New Orleans Saints to upset the Atlanta Falcons as well. Even though this isn’t necessarily do-or-die, I expect both teams to bring their best effort.

Check out our top Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks, featuring Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard.

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Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks: Week 18

Best Bet: Young over 18.5 rushing yards (-115)

This is the biggest game of Young’s NFL career, and I expect him to treat it as such.

The Panthers quarterback will assuredly do whatever he can to win the game, and that likely means pulling the ball down and taking off.

-> Bet Bryce Young on Saturday night

Young’s rushing numbers are already up in recent outings. With Carolina fighting for the division, he’s topped this total in four consecutive games.

In fact, Young is averaging 10-plus rushing yards per game more than this total (29.8).

One of those efforts was a 20-yard showing against Saturday’s opponent.

Overall, the Buccaneers have struggled to limit mobile QBs all season long. Another poor showing should be the case in Week 18, and Young has the mobility to take advantage of this matchup.

Key stat: Tampa Bay is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (21.9).

NFL Week 18 props

Hubbard over 8.5 receiving yards (-121): Hubbard went from being a featured member of the offence to being relegated to bench duties, but he’s seeing the field enough for me to lay down this wager.

From Weeks 9-12, Hubbard was limited to a minuscule 23.2% offensive snap share.

Over the last four weeks, however, that number has been on the rise. Hubbard is playing 45.6% of the snaps since Week 13, and his numbers are climbing once again.

-> Click here to bet on the Panthers!

Hubbard has topped this total in two of his last four games and is still the team’s preferred receiving back.

The Panthers should be looking to use Hubbard more in a plus matchup against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay is allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (52.1).

Hubbard had three targets in Week 17 but fell below this total. Similar usage should allow him to clear this mark with ease.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks made at 1:59 p.m. ET 01/02/2026.

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Panthers vs. Buccaneers Week 18 prop picks: Bet on Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard in big game

The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in a (kinda, sorta) winner-takes-all game on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The Panthers win the NFC South with a win. A Buccaneers victory, however, doesn’t guarantee them a spot. Instead, they’d need the New Orleans Saints to upset the Atlanta Falcons as well. Even though this isn’t necessarily do-or-die, I expect both teams to bring their best effort.

Check out our top Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks, featuring Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard.

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Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks: Week 18

Best Bet: Young over 18.5 rushing yards (-115)

This is the biggest game of Young’s NFL career, and I expect him to treat it as such.

The Panthers quarterback will assuredly do whatever he can to win the game, and that likely means pulling the ball down and taking off.

-> Bet Bryce Young on Saturday night

Young’s rushing numbers are already up in recent outings. With Carolina fighting for the division, he’s topped this total in four consecutive games.

In fact, Young is averaging 10-plus rushing yards per game more than this total (29.8).

One of those efforts was a 20-yard showing against Saturday’s opponent.

Overall, the Buccaneers have struggled to limit mobile QBs all season long. Another poor showing should be the case in Week 18, and Young has the mobility to take advantage of this matchup.

Key stat: Tampa Bay is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (21.9).

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NFL Week 18 props

Hubbard over 8.5 receiving yards (-121): Hubbard went from being a featured member of the offence to being relegated to bench duties, but he’s seeing the field enough for me to lay down this wager.

From Weeks 9-12, Hubbard was limited to a minuscule 23.2% offensive snap share.

Over the last four weeks, however, that number has been on the rise. Hubbard is playing 45.6% of the snaps since Week 13, and his numbers are climbing once again.

-> Click here to bet on the Panthers!

Hubbard has topped this total in two of his last four games and is still the team’s preferred receiving back.

The Panthers should be looking to use Hubbard more in a plus matchup against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay is allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (52.1).

Hubbard had three targets in Week 17 but fell below this total. Similar usage should allow him to clear this mark with ease.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers prop picks made at 1:59 p.m. ET 01/02/2026.

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Grizzlies vs. Lakers SGP predictions Jan. 2: Bet on Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia in +310 ticket

The Memphis Grizzlies visit the Los Angeles Lakers in what should be a fun Friday night showdown.

The pregame narrative: I expect a healthy helping of points as Memphis visits Los Angeles. I’m looking beyond the top stars and looking for a pair of role players to step up with stellar performances.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Jan. 2, featuring prop bets on Jake LaRavia and Santi Aldama.

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Grizzlies vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Over 225.5 points | LaRavia over 10.5 points | Aldama over 14.5 points (+310)

Over 225. points (-385): Los Angeles has been one of the better overs teams in the NBA, and I expect both teams to clear this total.

The Lakers are 20-11 to the over this season, the second-best record in the league. They’ve gone over this total in 12 of their last 15 games.

Memphis, meanwhile, has been one of the better unders squads in the NBA. Still, the Grizzlies have been able to top this total in eight of their last nine outings.

-> Bet on the over here!

What helps is that these are two offences that put points up in different ways. The Lakers are seventh in offensive rating (115.6), but they run at an average pace.

Memphis, meanwhile, isn’t very efficient but is second in pace (104.3 possessions/game).

NBA SGP legs

LaRavia over 10.5 points (-104): This is a very fair line for somebody trending up like LaRavia.

The forward is only averaging 8.7 points per game, but that number is steadily rising.

LaRavia has posted 10.2 PPG across his last six games.

He has topped this total in four of his last six games.

Los Angeles battled Memphis earlier this season, and LaRavia had a solid 13-point showing.

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Rui Hachimura is out again for the Lakers, which means LaRavia should continue to see increased usage.

He’s averaging 30.0 minutes in his last six games, which is up from his season-long average (25.5).

Aldama over 14.5 points (-110): Lastly, I’m taking the over on Aldama’s points prop.

The Spanish power forward is averaging just a tick under this total on the season (14.3), but there are a couple of indicators that suggest he’ll eclipse the mark tonight.

Firstly, Los Angeles hasn’t done a great job of defending power forwards. They’re ceding the ninth-most points per game to the position (23.6).

Secondly, his production is up in recent efforts. Aldama is averaging 17.9 points per game across his last 10 outings, eclipsing 20 points in four of those performances.

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