Contributing Writer

Bills vs. Chiefs AFC championship TD picks: Bet on Cook and Kelce to find end zone

One running back and a veteran tight end make up my AFC championship TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Travis Kelce was in vintage playoff form last week and I’m backing him to score as the Kansas City Chiefs get one step closer to three-peating. I’m also eyeing James Cook to score for the Buffalo Bills.

Check out my favourite Bills vs. Chiefs TD picks for this weekend’s AFC championship game.

Bills vs. Chiefs TD picks

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Best bet: Kelce anytime TD (+117): The all-time great tight end had a down season by his standards, recording his career-low in receiving yards (823) with just three TDs.

But I chalk most of his struggles up to a slow start. Since Week 8, he’s been cooking:

97 targets
69 receptions
598 yards

The end zone has been hard to find but it is worth noting that all three TDs came after Week 8.

Kelce also strives in the playoffs. Last week, he had seven receptions for 117 yards and a TD against the Houston Texans.

Key stat: Since the 2021-22 season, the tight end has 11 scores in as many postseason games, going 9-2 against this wager.

Quick pick

Cook anytime TD (+120): On the other side, I’m backing Cook at plus money.

Despite not scoring last week, the 1,000-yard rusher was very reliable against this wager all season long. He scored in 13 out of 18 games including the playoffs.

In two postseason games, Cook is still getting a ton of volume out of the backfield.

Vs. Denver: 23 carries, 120 yards, TD.
Vs. Baltimore: 17 carries, 67 yards.

Kansas City is good against the run, allowing the eight-fewest ground yards per game (101.8) — but Buffalo’s offence has proven to be matchup-proof heading into the AFC championship.

Cook had two TDs in the Bills’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs.

Picks made at 2:19 p.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

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Commanders vs. Eagles NFC championship same-game parlay: Bet on Washington to cover alt spread, Daniels to excel at +280

The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles go to battle with a Super Bowl appearance on the line.

The pregame narrative: This high-stakes matchup features two NFC East teams with elite offences. I believe Washington can keep rolling, which is why I’m taking the Commanders to cover a teased-up spread. This +280 SGP also features a prop bet on Jayden Daniels.

Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for the game on Jan. 26.

Commanders vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Commanders +10.5 + Over 44.5 points + Daniels over 21.5 completions (+280)

Commanders +10.5 (-225): The first thing worth noting is that Washington is 18-1 against this spread this season.

That one time the Commanders failed to cover was way back in Week 1 in Daniels’ first career start: a 37-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They’ve since avenged that loss when it mattered most, ending Tampa Bay’s season in the wild-card round.

Washington then went on to dispose of the Detroit Lions, the Super Bowl favourites heading into last weekend, with a 14-point win in the Motor City.

The Commanders did give up the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5) this season, so the Eagles might have success running the ball. But just like in previous weeks, I expect Washington’s offence to keep pace.

Jahmyr Gibbs had 105 rushing yards on 14 carries in the divisional round and Washington still won by two touchdowns.

Daniels and the Commanders’ offence have scored 18-plus points in every game this season. That’s an extremely reliable offensive floor for these hefty spreads.

Other parlay picks

Over 44.5 points (-165): The argument for the over is similar to the argument for Commanders +10.5, but I’ll dive a little deeper.

Since losing to Philadelphia in Week 11, 26-18, Washington has scored 30.6 points per game. That includes a 36-33 win over Philly in Week 16. Daniels is only growing with more experience, and the offence is excelling.

Philadelphia’s defence was arguably the best unit in the NFL this season, finishing with the fewest yards and points allowed this year. Yet Washington managed to score 54 points against them in two matchups.

At the end of the day, both of these teams were hyper-efficient on offence this year:

PHI: 179.3 rushing yards/game (2nd), 27.1 points/game (tied-7th).

WSH: 154.1 rushing yards/game (3rd), 28.5 points/game (5th).

Daniels over 21.5 completions (-107): Daniels has cashed this wager regularly, completing 22-plus passes in eight of the past nine games.

The time he fell under, he only threw 12 passes in an abbreviated Week 18 outing against the Dallas Cowboys.

Daniels finished the season with a 69.0% pass completion percentage. That ranked sixth amongst QBs who played 10 or more games.

The playoffs have been no different as the second-overall draft pick has kept a steady 69.7% completion rate.

Daniels is oozing confidence right now. It’s clear no stage is too big for the Commanders’ rookie.

Picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 23: Bet on Brady Tkachuk to stay active vs. the Bruins

Three prop picks from Thursday’s 12-game NHL slate have my attention.

The pregame narrative: Brady Tkachuk is a menace in every area of the ice and I expect another high offensive output against the Boston Bruins tonight. I also have picks on Lane Hutson and Yegor Sharangovich.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 23.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-112)

On Jan. 18, Tkachuk had eight shots against the Bruins in a 6-5 win for his Ottawa Senators.

Boston isn’t the team it was in past seasons. The red-hot Sens have jumped the Bruins in the standings, claiming the final wild-card position, for now.

Tkachuk ranks second in the NHL in shots per game (4.0) behind only David Pastrnak (4.2), his opponent on Thursday.

The difference is that Pastrnak’s line is set at 4.5 while bettors can still grab Tkachuk at 3.5 at a good price.

And if we look at the stats, the Bruins are more vulnerable to giving up shots. They rank in the bottom half of the NHL, allowing 28.6 per game.

Tkachuk also has a knack for peppering Boston’s goal when these two sides meet.

Key stat: Ottawa’s captain has 20 shots in two games vs. the Bruins this season.

Quick picks

Hutson to score 1+ points (-132): The second overall pick in 2022 is turning into an elite offensive defenceman very quickly.

Hutson has 39 points in 47 games to start his rookie season and is on a major heater right now.

He recorded at least one point in nine straight games.

Hutson has 13 points during that stretch.

He may be a rookie but the Montreal Canadiens rely on him like a vet. He averages the second-most ice time (22:36) while quarterbacking the first power-play unit.

The Detroit Red Wings rank bottom 10 in goals allowed (3.2) and shots against (29.1) per game while owning the NHL’s second-worst penalty kill (68.1%).

Sharangovich to score 1+ points (+123): Sharangovich started the season on the injured list and hasn’t been as productive as the Calgary Flames would’ve hoped since returning with 14 points in 38 outings.

But he has found some recent chemistry with his linemates after being moved back to the centre position to deal with an injury to Connor Zary.

Sharangovich has three points in four games since the move, going 2-2 against this line. It’s nothing spectacular but this is a plus-money pick, after all.

Additionally, he was recently promoted to the first line on the power play.

The Buffalo Sabres provide an enticing matchup, allowing the fourth-most goals per game (3.4). They also take the sixth-most penalty minutes (9.9) while killing penalties at a below-average rate (77.1%).

There should be ample opportunity for Calgary’s forward group on Thursday and I like the value on Sharangovich.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

NFL playoff schedule and odds for conference championship round: Bills battle Chiefs, Commanders search for upset

As sad as it is, there are only two NFL Sundays left in the season. But this will be a massive one.

The latest: Both the NFC and AFC championship games feature matchups that bettors should be familiar with. The Eagles and Commanders will meet for the third time in less than three months, while the Chiefs and Bills are back at it for the fourth time in five postseasons.

Check out the NFL playoff schedule for the conference championship round and see the latest odds for both games.

NFL playoff schedule

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Jan. 26, 3 p.m. ET)

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m. ET)

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NFC/AFC championship round

Commanders vs. Eagles

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Betting Markets	Odds
Commanders ML	+230
Eagles ML	-275
Commanders +5.5	-110
Eagles -5.5	-110
Over 47.5 points	-110
Under 47.5 points	-110

Washington’s storybook season forges on, after Jayden Daniels guided his team to a pair of road upsets in the previous two weeks. Daniels, the No. 2 overall draft pick last year, had 350 total yards and two TDs in the divisional round against the then-Super Bowl favourite Detroit Lions.

The Commanders won the most recent matchup between these teams (36-33 on Dec. 22), but Jalen Hurts exited early for the Eagles in that matchup. With a healthy Hurts under centre, Philly beat Washington at home, 26-18, in November.

The Eagles have won nine straight home games, including seven in a row by at least six points.

Philly has rushed for 454 yards on 6.7 yards/rush through two playoff games. The team ran for 200-plus yards in both matchups against Washington during the regular season.

Bills vs. Chiefs

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Betting Markets	Odds
Bills ML	+110
Chiefs ML	-125
Bills +2	-110
Chiefs -2	-110
Over 47.5 points	-110
Under 47.5 points	-110

Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are 3-0 SU and ATS against Josh Allen’s Bills in the playoffs (since January 2021). Last year, the Bills were 2.5-point home favourites but failed to defend a lead in the fourth quarter.

Although winless against KC in the postseason during the Allen/Mahomes years, the Bills have won all four regular season meetings since 2021. That includes a 30-21 victory in Week 11 this year, in which Allen had 312 total yards and two TDs.

Unders are 6-1 in KC’s past seven games. Despite an NFL-high 16 wins, the Chiefs have failed to surpass the 30-point marker in 16 of 18 games.

Buffalo has the No. 2 scoring offence in the league (30.9 PPG), and overs are 7-2-2 in its games since Week 9.

Bulls vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 20: Back Norman Powell and James Harden at +265

The Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Clippers wrap up a day-long NBA slate on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: The Inuit Dome will host two fatigued sides on the second halves of back-to-backs. However, the Clippers carry one of the best home records in the NBA, and I expect another for the home team. This +265 SGP also contains picks on Norman Powell and James Harden.

Check out my Bulls vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 20.

Bulls vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers moneyline + Powell over 22.5 points + Harden over 8.5 assists (+265)

Clippers moneyline (-235): The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and they played last night, but that doesn’t worry me.

L.A. is 15-6 at home this season, and although Leonard has looked great in his short stints, he hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in a game to this point.

On the other side, the Bulls are on a road back-to-back and travelled last night from Portland to Los Angeles after a 113-102 loss to the Trail Blazers.

They’re 10-10 on the road and currently on a five-game losing streak.

This will also be their seventh game in 11 days, so there are multiple factors responsible for what I expect to be a fatigued team.

SGP legs

Powell over 22.5 points (-167): With Leonard absent, my confidence is sky-high for this prop.

My only concern is a blowout, but I simply can’t ignore how hot Powell has been.

Powell is averaging 23.6 PPG.

Since Dec. 16, he is 10-5 against this line.

It’s also worth noting that he’s cashed this wager in eight of his last 10 games without Kawhi.

The last time Leonard was sidelined, Powell scored 23 points in just 26 minutes during a 118-89 blowout win against the Trail Blazers.

That takes some of the concern away if this game turns into a blowout in the Clippers’ favour.

Harden over 8.5 assists (-122): Harden is going to have the ball more often with his superstar teammate resting on Monday.

On top of that, he has an advantageous positional matchup. The Bulls allow the most assists per game (10.8) to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Chicago plays at an electrifying pace (102.9 possessions per 48 minutes), too. They rank second in the NBA in that department. Faster play means more offensive possessions and potential assists for Harden.

He’s not the stat sheet stuffer he used to be, but he can still dish out dimes with the best of the best. Harden ranks seventh in the NBA in assists per game (8.1).

Dating back to 2022, Harden has double-digit assists in six straight outings against the Bulls.

Picks made at 2:41 p.m. on 01/20/24.

Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning Jan. 20: Bet on Hedman to find the score sheet, Hagel to be effective in offensive zone

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Lightning are hot on the Leafs’ heels in the Atlantic Division and can make up some crucial ground with a win. With the way Toronto has played recently, I’m interested in prop picks on Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel tonight.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning for Jan. 20.

Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning

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Best bet: Hedman to record 1+ points (-130)

The big blue-liner is having another great year, recording 36 points in 42 games played.

Toronto started the season with one of the top defensive units in the NHL, but that hasn’t been the case lately.

Since Dec. 15, the Leafs have allowed 3.3 goals per game. That has raised their season-long average goals against from 2.5 to 3.1.

That’s a dangerous way to be playing with the Lightning in town. Tampa Bay leads the NHL in scoring (3.7/game) and has scored four-plus goals in four of the past six contests.

In those six games, Hedman has seven points and is 6-0 against this line.

Key stat: Hedman also has four points across a pair of games against the Leafs this season.

Quick pick

Hagel over 2.5 shots (-118): Nikita Kucherov unsurprisingly leads the Lightning in shots, but Hagel is just behind him.

Hagel has 129 shots in 44 outings (2.9/game).

The winger has cleared this line in 7/8 since Jan. 5.

Toronto is a solid defensive team but as mentioned before, the side has been struggling.

The Leafs give up the 10th-most shots per game (29.2), which is part of the reason why their goals against have increased significantly.

In the two previous meetings this season, The Lightning outshot the Leafs by a combined total of 75-58. They recorded 34-plus shots in both games.

Tampa has the offensive talent to once again out-chance Toronto during its poor run of defensive play, and Hagel has an enticing price on his shots prop.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning Jan. 20: Bet on Hedman to find the score sheet, Hagel to be effective in offensive zone

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Lightning are hot on the Leafs’ heels in the Atlantic Division and can make up some crucial ground with a win. With the way Toronto has played recently, I’m interested in prop picks on Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel tonight.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning for Jan. 20.

Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning

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Best bet: Hedman to record 1+ points (-122)

The big blue-liner is having another great year, recording 36 points in 42 games played.

Toronto started the season with one of the top defensive units in the NHL, but that hasn’t been the case lately.

Since Dec. 15, the Leafs have allowed 3.3 goals per game. That has raised their season-long average goals against from 2.5 to 3.1.

That’s a dangerous way to be playing with the Lightning in town. Tampa Bay leads the NHL in scoring (3.7/game) and has scored four-plus goals in four of the past six contests.

In those six games, Hedman has seven points and is 6-0 against this line.

Key stat: Hedman also has four points across a pair of games against the Leafs this season.

Quick pick

Hagel over 2.5 shots (+100): Nikita Kucherov unsurprisingly leads the Lightning in shots, but Hagel is just behind him.

Hagel has 129 shots in 44 outings (2.9/game).

The winger has cleared this line in 7/8 since Jan. 5.

Toronto is a solid defensive team but as mentioned before, the side has been struggling.

The Leafs give up the 10th-most shots per game (29.2), which is part of the reason why their goals against have increased significantly.

In the two previous meetings this season, The Lightning outshot the Leafs by a combined total of 75-58. They recorded 34-plus shots in both games.

Tampa has the offensive talent to once again out-chance Toronto during its poor run of defensive play, and Hagel has an enticing price on his shots prop.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 20: Fade Sidney Crosby vs. Kings

There are nine NHL games on Monday, and I’ve got three prop picks to share.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Penguins continue their disappointing season out west against one of the league’s elite defensive teams. Because of that, I’m fading Sidney Crosby. Tomas Hertl and Seth Jarvis have my attention elsewhere in the prop markets.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 20.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Hertl to score 1+ points (-150)

The Vegas Golden Knights are on a three-game skid, but that doesn’t mean Hertl has been bad. In fact, he’s been great.

Hertl has six points in the past three games — and 10 points over his last seven.

He’s 6-1 against this line during that time.

The St. Louis Blues are also a below-average defensive team, leaving much to be desired. They allow 3.0 goals per game and have the NHL’s sixth-worst penalty kill (73.9%).

That all works in favour of Hertl, who plays on the Knight’s first power-play unit. Vegas converts on the PP at a 26.6% rate.

Key stat: Hertl has four power-play points in his last five games.

Quick picks

Crosby under 0.5 points (+125): I wouldn’t fade Crosby on most nights but this is probably the toughest matchup for any player.

The Los Angeles Kings allow the second-fewest goals (2.42) and fewest shots (24.7) per game.

And their defence has been playing even better to start 2025. Since Jan. 1, L.A. has conceded just 10 goals in eight contests.

That’s even more impressive when considering five of those games were played on the road.

L.A. is back at home, where it owns a 14-2-1 record and has allowed only 33 goals (1.9/game).

Crosby has 49 points in 48 games this season but failed to record a point in three of his last five.

Jarvis over 2.5 shots (+100): Jarvis is very active in the opposition’s zone, tallying 104 shots through 39 games.

That equates to an average of 2.6 shots per game, and he and the Carolina Hurricanes have the matchup to do damage on Monday.

The Chicago Blackhawks allow the fifth-most shots against (30.8/game). They also average 8.7 penalty minutes per game, meaning Jarvis could see extended power-play minutes.

Carolina averages 31.8 shots and is expected to have a lot of puck possession as the -300 betting favourite.

That should provide plenty of opportunity for Jarvis to blast shots from anywhere in the offensive zone.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.

NHL prop picks Jan. 20: Fade Sidney Crosby vs. Kings

There are nine NHL games on Monday, and I’ve got three prop picks to share.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Penguins continue their disappointing season out west against one of the league’s elite defensive teams. Because of that, I’m fading Sidney Crosby. Tomas Hertl and Seth Jarvis have my attention elsewhere in the prop markets.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Jan. 20.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #106769

Best bet: Hertl to score 1+ points (-141)

The Vegas Golden Knights are on a three-game skid, but that doesn’t mean Hertl has been bad. In fact, he’s been great.

Hertl has six points in the past three games — and 10 points over his last seven.

He’s 6-1 against this line during that time.

The St. Louis Blues are also a below-average defensive team, leaving much to be desired. They allow 3.0 goals per game and have the NHL’s sixth-worst penalty kill (73.9%).

That all works in favour of Hertl, who plays on the Knight’s first power-play unit. Vegas converts on the PP at a 26.6% rate.

Key stat: Hertl has four power-play points in his last five games.

Quick picks

Crosby under 0.5 points (+138): I wouldn’t fade Crosby on most nights but this is probably the toughest matchup for any player.

The Los Angeles Kings allow the second-fewest goals (2.42) and fewest shots (24.7) per game.

And their defence has been playing even better to start 2025. Since Jan. 1, L.A. has conceded just 10 goals in eight contests.

That’s even more impressive when considering five of those games were played on the road.

L.A. is back at home, where it owns a 14-2-1 record and has allowed only 33 goals (1.9/game).

Crosby has 49 points in 48 games this season but failed to record a point in three of his last five.

Jarvis over 2.5 shots (+125): Jarvis is very active in the opposition’s zone, tallying 104 shots through 39 games.

That equates to an average of 2.6 shots per game, and he and the Carolina Hurricanes have the matchup to do damage on Monday.

The Chicago Blackhawks allow the fifth-most shots against (30.8/game). They also average 8.7 penalty minutes per game, meaning Jarvis could see extended power-play minutes.

Carolina averages 31.8 shots and is expected to have a lot of puck possession as the -300 betting favourite.

That should provide plenty of opportunity for Jarvis to blast shots from anywhere in the offensive zone.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.

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Nuggets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Klay Thompson to shoot the lights out in +300 wager

The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks will run it back at the American Airlines Center on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The banged-up Nuggets will put its three-game road win streak on the line Tuesday against a Mavericks squad with injury concerns of its own. The Nuggets won the Jan. 12 meeting, 112-101, and I’m predicting a similar result tonight. This +300 SGP also includes prop picks on Klay Thompson and Michael Porter Jr.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions

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Embed: #106228

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline, Thompson 3+ threes, Porter Jr. 15+ points (+300)

Nuggets (-157): Denver is rolling right now and I’m buying in.

This game is littered with injury tags on both sides but the most important detail is that Nikola Jokic is listed as probable after dealing with an illness.

Since Dec. 8 the Nuggets are 12-5 as they sit fourth in the Western Conference. They beat the Mavericks on Saturday, and with Luka Doncic ruled out, expect a similar result.

The Mavericks are 9-8 this season without Doncic and 40-52 since 2018 when missing their franchise player.

To add insult to injury for Dallas, Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable with both a back injury and illness.

So Dallas could be down two superstars against a hot Nuggets side. Even if Irving plays, there’s reason to believe he’ll be less than 100%.

The Mavericks are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

SGP legs

Thompson 3+ threes (-195): With Doncic listed as out and Irving questionable, extra shots should open up for Thompson.

The veteran sharpshooter is starting to find his groove from range, hitting three-plus 3-pointers in eight of his past 11 games.

That includes a 6-for-13 night against the Nuggets on Saturday. He is now shooting 38.5% for the season from beyond the arc on 7.9 attempts per game.

Since Dec. 5, he’s been hitting threes at a 41.2% clip suggesting Thompson has shaken off the rust from the multitude of injuries he has suffered in recent years.

He looks like a premier shooter once again, capable of hitting this line on any night.

Porter Jr. 15+ points (-143): Here’s another player who’s been on a tear.

On Saturday, Porter fell short of this mark, finishing with 13 points. But he scored 15-plus in 11 straight games straight before that, averaging 21.2 points over that span.

For the season, he’s averaging 18.1 PPG, more than he needs tonight for this leg to cash.

Denver’s Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are both questionable. If either of those two were to miss the game, Porter will surely benefit from more volume, too.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 01/14/24.