Spencer Closs

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.

Celtics vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 2: Tail Porzingis and Fade Maxey at +285

Celtics vs. 76ers predictions

The Boston Celtics look to continue rolling against the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The Celtics didn’t have the best January but I’m expecting their play to improve in preparation for a run at a second consecutive NBA title. I’m backing the Celtics to win comfortably in this SGP that includes prop picks on Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Maxey.

Check out my Celtics vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 2.

Celtics vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Celtics -7.5 + Porzingis over 17.5 points + Maxey under 31.5 points (+285)

Celtics -7.5 (-210): Boston lost six games in January, which may not seem like a lot for most teams but standards are higher for the 34-15 Celtics.

The good news is they’re coming off back-to-back wins and covered this spread in six of 10 wins last month.

Boston strangely has a better record on the road (18-6) than at home (16-9) this season and the game is in Philly tonight.

The other thing working in the Celtics’ favour is the 76ers injury report. Joel Embiid and Paul George remain out.

Philadelphia is playing well right now, winning five of its last six games but the side lost the seven games before and I’m predicting the hobbled roster gets back to its losing ways.

Other SGP legs

Porzingis over 17.5 points (-141): Porzingis has a chance to have a high-scoring game with Embiid out.

The absence leaves Geurschon Yabusele as the 76ers starting centre and he is doing a solid job filling in, but he has a tough time defending dominant bigs.

Here are some centres and their recent performances against Philly:

  • Nikola Jokic (Jan. 31): 28 points, 11/16 shooting
  • Domantas Sabonis (Jan. 29): 13-point triple-double, 4/6 shooting
  • Nikola Vucevic (Jan. 25): 22 points, 8/12 shooting

Those are three examples from just the past 10 days.

And Porzingis has been cooking recently. Since Jan. 5, Porzingis is 10-2 against this line.

My biggest concern here is volume but it hasn’t mattered lately as the big man is averaging 20.6 points over that span while taking a mediocre 15 shots per game.

Maxey under 31.5 points (-141): Maxey has been on a tear but this total is just too high against one of the NBA’s premier defences.

On Christmas Day, Maxey squeaked past this line vs. the Celtics, scoring 33 points.

However, both Embiid and PG played in that game which made it harder for Boston to focus its defensive attention on Philly’s dynamic point guard.

With his teammates ruled out, I expect an abundance of double teams and different looks to slow down Maxey.

Boston boasts the fifth-best defensive rating (111.2) and can swarm the 76ers’ top-scoring option.

And even though Maxey is averaging 29.9 PPG since Jan. 1, he’s gone under this total in 11-of-16 games.

Picks made at 10:54 a.m. on 02/02/2025.

Clippers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 2: Take the Clippers to win, Leonard and Barnes to fill basket

Clippers vs. Raptors predictions

The Toronto Raptors look to bounce back with the Los Angeles Clippers visiting on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got prop picks on one star from each team as I’m taking overs on Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard in this matchup. I’m tacking on Clippers moneyline to get this SGP to +370.

Check out my Clippers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 2.

Clippers vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Clippers moneyline + Barnes over 19.5 points + Leonard over 20.5 points (+370)

Clippers moneyline (-210): The Raptors went on an unexpected five-game winning streak that ended against the Chicago Bulls on Friday.

It was a nice run for Toronto but I feel another stretch of losses looming.

The Raptors had the benefit of playing six consecutive contests against teams under .500 (Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks x2, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls). That luck is about to change.

Starting on Sunday, nine of Toronto’s next 10 opponents are currently above .500 and in playoff/play-in positions.

Why is this important? Well, I’m sure you won’t be shocked but the Raptors only have five wins against teams that currently have a record better than .500.

On the other side, the Clippers are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Plus, they own a 3-1 record over their last four away games.

Other SGP legs

Barnes over 19.5 points (-143): Barnes has had a solid floor as a scorer lately and I believe he can be productive again tonight.

He recorded 20-plus points in five-straight games and most of the reason why is pure volume.

Barnes isn’t playing lights out or anything, shooting 42.6% from the field and 20.0% from three over that span. But, he’s taking 18.8 shots a game and going to the free-throw line 6.8 times per game.

It’s not the most efficient basketball but it’s led Toronto to winning games so I expect Barnes to continue leading the offence.

The young forward was sidelined in his team’s first meeting with the Clippers this season but in one game against them last year, he scored 23 points on 9-of-21 shooting.

Leonard over 20.5 points (-113): As Leonard continues to receive more minutes, his production keeps rising.

He’s now played 28 minutes in back-to-back games and cleared this total in both. Not to mention, one of those games was against the San Antion Spurs where he recorded a season-high 27 points.

The Raptors, like the Spurs, are Leonard’s former team. I may be over-pushing the ‘revenge game’ narrative today, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence he attempted a season-high shot attempts (19) against San Antonio.

Toronto has the seventh-worst defensive rating (117.0) in the NBA and allows the eight-most points per game to small forwards (22.2).

Norman Powell is out on Sunday, too, which should open up more shots for Leonard.

Picks made at 10:54 a.m. on 02/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 2: Back Vucevic, Irving and Bane and Sunday

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three NBA prop bets for Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Vucevic is set to lead the charge for the Chicago Bulls in their game with the Detroit Pistons. I’m taking the over on his points prop while adding in picks on Kyrie Irving for the Dallas Mavericks and Desmond Bane for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 2.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Vucevic over 19.5 points (-120)

Vucevic continues to be the target of trade rumours and here’s a good matchup for the big man to showcase his offensive skills.

The Pistons allow the ninth most points per game (23.2) to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Additionally, Vucevic has scored 20-plus in three of the past four games.

He’s an efficient scorer, shooting 54.7% from the field and 39.4% from 3-point range.

With Zach LaVine being doubtful to suit up on Sunday, more shots should be available for the Bulls’ centre. And with those efficiencies, I feel really good about his potential as a scorer today.

Key stat: Vucevic has 20-plus points in four-straight against the Pistrons, averaging 25.5 points in those games.

Quick picks

Irving over 27.5 points (-108): Irving is another player who is listed on the injury report ahead of Sunday.

But if he suits up, I love this spot.

The Cleveland Cavaliers allow the most PPG to point guards (26.4) and Irving is an elite scorer.

He’s averaging 24.3 points on 47.9% shooting and 41.5% from beyond the arc.

Since leaving the Cavs in 2017, Irving averaged 31.0 points in six games in Cleveland. He cleared this line in five of six of those games.

It’s been eight years but it appears the ‘revenge game’ narrative is still in play.

Bane over 7.5 assists (+105): Take a look at Bane’s stats since Dec. 21:

  • 21.4 PPG
  • 6.5 assists
  • 53.4 FG%
  • 43.8 3PT%

And lately, he’s been stepping up as a passer while Ja Morant manages an injury.

In three games without Morant since Jan. 17, Bane recorded 34 assists (11.3 per game). He unsurprisingly cleared this line in all three contests.

Morant is listed as doubtful to play on Sunday so that’s worth monitoring.

Their opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks allows 34.9 points/assists to point guards, which is the role Bane would play in Morant’s absence.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 02/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 2: Back Vucevic, Irving and Bane and Sunday

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three NBA prop bets for Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Vucevic is set to lead the charge for the Chicago Bulls in their game with the Detroit Pistons. I’m taking the over on his points prop while adding in picks on Kyrie Irving for the Dallas Mavericks and Desmond Bane for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 2.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Vucevic over 19.5 points (-121)

Vucevic continues to be the target of trade rumours and here’s a good matchup for the big man to showcase his offensive skills.

The Pistons allow the ninth most points per game (23.2) to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Additionally, Vucevic has scored 20-plus in three of the past four games.

He’s an efficient scorer, shooting 54.7% from the field and 39.4% from 3-point range.

With Zach LaVine being doubtful to suit up on Sunday, more shots should be available for the Bulls’ centre. And with those efficiencies, I feel really good about his potential as a scorer today.

Key stat: Vucevic has 20-plus points in four-straight against the Pistrons, averaging 25.5 points in those games.

Quick picks

Irving over 26.5 points (-118): Irving is another player who is listed on the injury report ahead of Sunday.

But if he suits up, I love this spot.

The Cleveland Cavaliers allow the most PPG to point guards (26.4) and Irving is an elite scorer.

He’s averaging 24.3 points on 47.9% shooting and 41.5% from beyond the arc.

Since leaving the Cavs in 2017, Irving averaged 31.0 points in six games in Cleveland. He cleared this line in five of six of those games.

It’s been eight years but it appears the ‘revenge game’ narrative is still in play.

Bane over 28.5 points/assists (-107): Take a look at Bane’s stats since Dec. 21:

  • 21.4 PPG
  • 6.5 assists
  • 53.4 FG%
  • 43.8 3PT%

And lately, he’s been stepping up as a passer while Ja Morant manages an injury.

In three games without Morant since Jan. 17, Bane recorded 34 assists (11.3 per game). He unsurprisingly cleared this line in all three contests.

Morant is listed as doubtful to play on Sunday so that’s worth monitoring.

Their opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks also allows the second most PPG to point guards (26.3) which is the role Bane would play in Morant’s absence.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 02/02/2025.

The 4 best Super Bowl bets to make: Back Patrick Mahomes two different ways

Super Bowl best bets

The Super Bowl is quickly approaching and I’m sharing my best bets for the Big Game.

The pregame narrative: Patrick Mahomes will be the centre of attention as he looks to complete the three-peat. Two prop picks on the Chiefs’ quarterback headline my four favourite Super Bowl 59 bets.

Check out my Super Bowl best bets below.

Super Bowl best bets

Best bet: Mahomes under 250.5 passing yards (-120)

Betting against Mahomes in the Super Bowl feels like treason but the quarterback can still be productive while finishing below this mark.

The reigning SB MVP has fallen short of this yardage total in both playoff games and in four of the past six contests dating back to Dec. 8.

Philly provides the toughest matchup in the NFL, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (174.2). The side has held 15-of-20 starting QBs to less than 251 passing yards this season.

Even if the Chiefs win, my prediction would be that it’s off the back of the defence that has carried them all year.

Key stat: At Super Bowl 57, Mahomes threw for 182 yards in the Chiefs’ 38-35 victory over the Eagles.

Quick Picks

Mahomes anytime TD scorer (+300): To continue with Mahomes, I’m backing him to score a TD.

When the playoffs roll around, the QB is more inclined to use his legs.

  • Mahomes set season-highs in back-to-back weeks, rushing seven times against the Texans before exploding for 11 rushes and two rushing TDs against the Bills in the conference championship.
  • The star QB has seven rushing TDs in 20 career playoff games compared to 14 in 112 regular season games.

Additionally, the Eagles’ first-ranked pass defence may force Mahomes out of the pocket more than he’s used to.

Under 49 points (-110): This is the most boring of my bets but some quality data is backing the under.

Each team has an elite defence:

  • KC ranks 4th in scoring (19.2) and allowed the 8th-fewest yards per game (335.4).
  • Philly ranks 2nd in scoring (17.8) and allowed the fewest yards per game (296.3).

Even though this game is loaded with offensive talent, it has been the defence that has shined all year for the two Super Bowl finalists.

Including the playoffs, the Chiefs and Eagles combine to have an over/under record of 17-22, per Team Rankings.

Back the run game

Pacheco over 22.5 rushing yards (-120): I know Isaiah Pacheco has lost a lot of his work to Kareem Hunt but this is a very modest total for a player who should still be involved.

Pacheco had five carries in both the divisional game and the NFC championship but that’d still be enough to surpass this total with one big gain.

The running back’s been banged up this season, missing nine weeks with a leg injury before grabbing a rib injury late in the season.

Although the ribs haven’t forced Pacheco to miss any time, it explains the fall off in production over the previous weeks.

Before recording 18 yards on Christmas Day against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Pacheco rushed for 23-plus yards in six straight games.

With the extra week of rest, I suspect Pacheco will receive much closer to his normal workload on Feb. 9. He averages 4.5 yards per carry for his career.

NFL picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 01/30/25.

The 5 best Super Bowl bets to make: Back Patrick Mahomes two different ways

Super Bowl best bets

The Super Bowl is quickly approaching and I’m sharing my best bets for the Big Game.

The pregame narrative: Patrick Mahomes will be the centre of attention as he looks to complete the three-peat. Two prop picks on the Chiefs’ quarterback headline my five favourite Super Bowl 59 bets.

Check out my Super Bowl best bets below.

Super Bowl best bets

Best bet: Mahomes under 251.5 passing yards (-114)

Betting against Mahomes in the Super Bowl feels like treason but the quarterback can still be productive while finishing below this mark.

The reigning SB MVP has fallen short of this yardage total in both playoff games and in four of the past six contests dating back to Dec. 8.

Philly provides the toughest matchup in the NFL, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (174.2). The side has held 15-of-20 starting QBs to less than 252 passing yards this season.

Even if the Chiefs win, my prediction would be that it’s off the back of the defence that has carried them all year.

Key stat: At Super Bowl 57, Mahomes threw for 182 yards in the Chiefs’ 38-35 victory over the Eagles.

Quick Picks

Mahomes anytime TD scorer (+340): To continue with Mahomes, I’m backing him to score a TD.

When the playoffs roll around, the QB is more inclined to use his legs.

  • Mahomes set season-highs in back-to-back weeks, rushing seven times against the Texans before exploding for 11 rushes and two rushing TDs against the Bills in the conference championship.
  • The star QB has seven rushing TDs in 20 career playoff games compared to 14 in 112 regular season games.

Additionally, the Eagles’ first-ranked pass defence may force Mahomes out of the pocket more than he’s used to.

Under 49 points (-110): This is the most boring of my bets but some quality data is backing the under.

Each team has an elite defence:

  • KC ranks 4th in scoring (19.2) and allowed the 8th-fewest yards per game (335.4).
  • Philly ranks 2nd in scoring (17.8) and allowed the fewest yards per game (296.3).

Even though this game is loaded with offensive talent, it has been the defence that has shined all year for the two Super Bowl finalists.

Including the playoffs, the Chiefs and Eagles combine to have an over/under record of 17-22, per Team Rankings.

Either team to attempt a two-point conversion (+110): This is the Super Bowl so there shouldn’t be any hesitation from both teams to attempt a two-point conversion when the math makes sense.

The AFC and NFC championship games had an attempted two-point conversion with both Philly and KC converting against their respective opponents.

At Super Bowl 57, Jalen Hurts converted a two-point attempt to tie the game 35-35. The Eagles went on to lose on a Harrison Butker game-winning field goal.

Back the run game

Pacheco over 20.5 rushing yards (-115): I know Isaiah Pacheco has lost a lot of his work to Kareem Hunt but this is a very modest total for a player who should still be involved.

Pacheco had five carries in both the divisional game and the NFC championship but that’d still be enough to surpass this total with one big gain.

The running back’s been banged up this season, missing nine weeks with a leg injury before grabbing a rib injury late in the season.

Although the ribs haven’t forced Pacheco to miss any time, it explains the fall off in production over the previous weeks.

Before recording 18 yards on Christmas Day against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Pacheco rushed for 21-plus yards in six straight games.

With the extra week of rest, I suspect Pacheco will receive much closer to his normal workload on Feb. 9. He averages 4.5 yards per carry for his career.

NFL picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 01/30/25.

Canada vs. USA odds to win 4 Nations Face-Off final: Canadians slight underdogs vs. rival Americans

4 Nations Face-Off odds

Canada and the USA run it back in the final after their electric round-robin meeting this past Saturday.

The latest: The Americans beat the Canadians, 3-1, on Feb. 15 and now Canada gets a shot at redemption when it matters most. The U.S. opened as the slight favourite in this international rivalry game.

Check out our 4 Nations Face-Off odds as of Feb. 20.

4 Nations Face-Off odds

Canada odds to win

After falling to the U.S., Canada played a must-win game against Finland and pulled through, 5-3.

Sidney Crosby is the oldest player at this tournament, yet he’s arguably been Canada’s best player in both wins, recording five points. That’s tied for the most with USA’s Zach Warenski.

Canada’s offence also features Connor McDavid (four points) and Nathan MacKinnon (three points), so it’s easy to maintain faith in the group despite being held to one goal in its loss to the Americans.

Goaltending is what had most fans worried entering the tournament and that remains the case heading into the final.

  • Connor Hellebuyck (USA): 2-0, 1.00 GAA, .957 SV%. Stopped 25/26 shots vs. Canada.
  • Jordan Binnington (CAN): 2-1, 2.60 GAA, .892 SV%. Stopped 20/22 shots vs. USA.

USA odds to win

The Americans blazed through the first two games of this tournament, beating Finland, 5-1, before winning the first meeting with Canada.

With its spot secured in the finals, the U.S. opted to start Jake Oettinger in its final game against Sweden. But he wasn’t the concern in the 2-1 loss.

Matthew Tkachuk, Auston Matthews and Charlie McAvoy were all missing from the lineup with injuries/injury management.

And then it was Brady Tkachuk who was removed from Monday’s game after slamming into the goal post but that was said to be precautionary by coach Mike Sullivan.

While McAvoy has been ruled out for the final, Sullivan stated that he’s “hopeful” to have the other guys back on Thursday in the postgame press conference.

Quinn Hughes will join Team USA in Boston and await a ruling about whether or not he can play. According to multiple reports, Team USA would need to have another injury or illness within the roster for Hughes to be eligible.

All of those players are important pieces of this roster so their statuses are worth monitoring in the days leading up to the final.

4 Nations Face-Off odds as of 1:25 p.m. ET on 02/18/2025.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Back the Grizzlies, Bane and Green at +300

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

The Houston Rockets continue their road trip with a game against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rockets are at a tough spot in their schedule and I expect the offensively-minded Grizzlies to take advantage and walk away with the win. I’m adding prop picks on Desmond Bane and Jalen Green to make up this +300 SGP.

Check out my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions for Jan. 30.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies moneyline + Bane over 17.5 points + Green over 2.5 assists (+350)

Grizzlies moneyline (-210): Houston is rolling right now, going 8-2 over its last 10 games, but tonight provides a tough situational matchup.

Memphis is a strong home team, holding a 19-5 record at FedEx Forum. The side also owns arguably the most electric offence in the NBA.

  • 103.8 possessions/game (1st)
  • 123.3 points/game (1st)
  • 48.6 field goal % (t-5th)

That feels like a big obstacle to overcome for the Rockets who are playing their fourth road game in six nights.

Memphis is coming off a 143-106 blowout loss to the New York Knicks and should be motivated to get a better result at home with a clear rest advantage.

Other SGP legs

Bane over 17.5 points (-120): Bane is having a down year in terms of production. He is averaging 17.7 points, his lowest total since his rookie season.

However, this is still a very achievable line for the dynamic guard.

Since Dec. 21, Bane has cleared this line in 15-of-18 games, averaging 21.2 points on 54.1% from the field and 44.5% from the 3-point range.

In the two games where he finished with less than 18 points, he totalled 16 twice and 17 once so his scoring floor is very reliable.

He has good shooting splits for the season (49.7/38.8/86.0) but the issue’s been a lack of volume more often than not.

Green over 2.5 assists (-156): Green has been upping his game as a passer.

Since Jan. 9, the shooting guard had three or more assists in eight of 10 games. In his last appearance against the Atlanta Hawks, he finished with zero helpers but I’m jumping right back on the wagon.

With Jaren Jackson Jr. patrolling the paint for Memphis (3.0 steals/blocks per game), I envision Green tapping back into that playmaking role that’s been successful in January.

According to 3stepsbasket.com, Memphis is an above-average team defending the rim, holding opponents 55.8% in the paint.

That should deter Green from slashing to the basket, leading to more passing out of the pick and roll and on the perimeter.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Back the Grizzlies, Bane and Green at +300

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

The Houston Rockets continue their road trip with a game against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rockets are at a tough spot in their schedule and I expect the offensively-minded Grizzlies to take advantage and walk away with the win. I’m adding prop picks on Desmond Bane and Jalen Green to make up this +300 SGP.

Check out my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions for Jan. 30.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

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Embed: #107955

Parlay: Grizzlies moneyline + Bane over 16.5 points + Green over 2.5 assists (+300)

Grizzlies moneyline (-195): Houston is rolling right now, going 8-2 over its last 10 games, but tonight provides a tough situational matchup.

Memphis is a strong home team, holding a 19-5 record at FedEx Forum. The side also owns arguably the most electric offence in the NBA.

  • 103.8 possessions/game (1st)
  • 123.3 points/game (1st)
  • 48.6 field goal % (t-5th)

That feels like a big obstacle to overcome for the Rockets who are playing their fourth road game in six nights.

Memphis is coming off a 143-106 blowout loss to the New York Knicks and should be motivated to get a better result at home with a clear rest advantage.

Other SGP legs

Bane over 16.5 points (-130): Bane is having a down year in terms of production. He is averaging 17.7 points, his lowest total since his rookie season.

However, this is still a very achievable line for the dynamic guard.

Since Dec. 21, Bane has cleared this line in 16-of-18 games, averaging 21.2 points on 54.1% from the field and 44.5% from the 3-point range.

In the two games where he finished with less than 17 points, he totalled exactly 16 so his scoring floor is very reliable.

He has good shooting splits for the season (49.7/38.8/86.0) but the issue’s been a lack of volume more often than not. When Bane takes 10-plus shots this season, he’s 20-8 against this wager.

Green over 2.5 assists (-180): Green has been upping his game as a passer.

Since Jan. 9, the shooting guard had three or more assists in eight of 10 games. In his last appearance against the Atlanta Hawks, he finished with zero helpers but I’m jumping right back on the wagon.

With Jaren Jackson Jr. patrolling the paint for Memphis (3.0 steals/blocks per game), I envision Green tapping back into that playmaking role that’s been successful in January.

According to 3stepsbasket.com, Memphis is an above-average team defending the rim, holding opponents 55.8% in the paint.

That should deter Green from slashing to the basket, leading to more passing out of the pick and roll and on the perimeter.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.

Super Bowl 59 team specials to bet on: Back Chiefs, Eagles to both score 20-plus points

Super Bowl team specials

There are tons of fun markets to bet on for Super Bowl 59, and I found two team specials I believe have a lot of value.

The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs tend to start slow, and that’s been the case in recent title game appearances. I’m taking the Philadelphia Eagles to score first and lose the big game. I also love the value on both teams scoring 20-plus points.

Check out my Super Bowl team specials best bets below.

Super Bowl team specials

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Best bet: Eagles to score first and lose (+375): If we look back at Super Bowl 57 between the Chiefs and Eagles, here’s how it went down:

  • Jalen Hurts scores first to put Philly up, 7-0.
  • Eagles lead 24-14 at half.
  • Mahomes and the Chiefs go on to score 17 fourth-quarter points and win, 38-35.

This narrative continued last season and through this year, as KC continues to find ways to get it done even if it’s not in the cleanest fashion.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, averaged 12.3 first-quarter points through the first three playoff games while Kansas City is averaging 6.5.

Now, let’s throw it back to November when the Chiefs made history.

It shows the legendary resilience of this Kansas City squad that is looking to win its third straight Super Bowl. I wouldn’t count out the Chiefs if things go south early.

Key stat: KC has won three of the past five Super Bowls, and the other team scored first in all three games.

Quick pick

Each team to score 20+ points (-136): The Chiefs and Eagles have two of the best defences in the league, but there’s too much firepower on the offensive side for me to ignore this line.

Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles are 14-1 and have scored 20-plus points in every game.

The Chiefs had less success on offence this season, but they show up when it matters most. They’ve scored 20-plus points in both playoff games.

An early over/under total of 49.5 indicates this will be a high-scoring game, and the 1.5-point spread means it should be a close contest.

As long as that’s the case, both offences should be able to get past this very modest total.

NFL picks made at 2:18 p.m. on 01/28/25.