Giannis Antetokounmpo headlines Saturday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing Giannis to go nuclear against a vulnerable defence. Dyson Daniels and Karl-Anthony Towns also provide value in their respective matchups.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 22.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points (-118)
This is a high total for most, but not for Giannis.
Antetokounmpo averages 30.2 points, and although he’s failed to score 32-plus in four of the past five games, this is one of the best matchups in the league.
- The Sacramento Kings allow the second most points per game to power forwards (24.48), per Fantasy Pros.
- In a game vs. the Kings on Jan. 14, Giannis had a 33-point triple-double on 14-of-23 shooting (60.9%)
- He attempted seven free throws in that game, which is notably below his season average (10.3).
This is an opportunity to buy low on one of the NBA’s premium scorers in a plus matchup. If Giannis was in the middle of a tear, this line would surely be above his season average.
Key stat: Antetokoumpo scored 32-plus in five of his past seven games against Sacramento, dating back to 2021.
Best NBA picks
Daniels over 4.5 assists (-130): The third-year guard has stepped up his game as a playmaker.
During nine games in March, Daniels averaged 5.9 assists and is 7-2 against this line.
The Atlanta Hawks play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA (102.1) and their opponent, the Golden State Warriors, rank near the middle of the pack, so there should be lots of shot chucking.
Daniels is averaging 11.0 potential assists per game this month. I think there’s great value on this prop.
Towns over 40.5 points/rebounds assists (-120): Towns played a back-to-back against the Washington Wizards earlier this season and put up monstrous numbers.
- Dec. 28 @ Washington: 30 points, 14 rebounds
- Dec. 30 @ Washington: 32 points, 13 rebounds
That’s an average of 44.5 points/rebounds. The Wizards provide a great matchup so I expect Towns to stuff the statsheet again on Saturday. Washington allows the most PR to centres per game (42.92).
Jalen Brunson remains out for the New York Knicks, meaning the big man will need to carry an even greater offensive burden than usual.
If this game stays close for at least three quarters, I feel good about KAT’s chances of reaching this total.
NBA prop picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 03/22/2025.